Mono Jojoy Killed: What's Next for the FARC and Colombia?

A multiday Colombian bombing raid, culminating with a ground operation Thursday, has killed the FARC’s second in command – the 57 year old field commander “Mono Jojoy” (aka Jorge Briceno), perhaps the most emblematic face of the rebel group. According to the New York Times, some 20 other FARC rebels were also killed in the attack, which took place in the mountains of Meta, some 150 miles southwest of the Colombian capital of Bogotá . Colombia’s defense minister, Rodrigo Rivera, said the strikes came after receiving intelligence from informers about the whereabouts of Jojoy’s concrete bunker which the strikes targeted. Speaking to the press Thursday Rivera said the FARC was “crumbling from within.” The AP calls the killing of Jojoy a “demoralizing shock to an already weakened insurgency.” In New York for the UN General Assembly, President Juan Manuel Santos, meanwhile, said it was “the most crushing blow against the FARC in its entire history,” arguing it surpassed the controversial 2008 cross-border raid which killed then FARC #2 Raul Reyes. President Santos:

“It is as if they told New Yorkers that Osama bin Laden had fallen.”

So who exactly was Mono Jojoy and what does his death mean for the future of the FARC and Colombia? According to Aldo Civico, co-director of the conflict resolution center at Rutgers University (quoted in the Washington Post’s coverage this morning), Jojoy was the “military mastermind of the FARC” for the last 25 years. He was a “rigid hard-liner,” the Post adds – someone who “favored the use of kidnapping to apply pressure on the government.” But he was at the same time the most beloved leader within the FARC, a sort of “living legend,” according to Ariel Avila of the Colombian think tank Nuevo Arco Iris. Jojoy, whose real name is Victor Julio Suarez, according to the military, joined the FARC when he was just a teenager, leaving his peasant upbringing to take up the guerrilla fight against the Colombian state. At the FARC’s height of power, he controlled the Eastern Bloc, the FARC’s most potent military force, which a few years ago had some 7,000 fighters. [Today the Eastern Bloc is believed to be made up of just 3400 rebels].

As for the future, the AP’s report says analysts have predicted Jojoy’s loss “could lead many rebels to give up the fight and might lead the FARC to seek peace in earnest.” But the group’s leader, Alfonso Cano still remains at-large and, says WOLA Colombia expert Adam Isacson, Jojoy’s “exit from the scene is unlikely to bring the group close to surrender.” Here’s Isacson, in a great blog post on Thursday’s military operations:

“The FARC continues to have 7,000-9,000 members scattered across at least half of the country’s departments (provinces), including vast empty zones. It has a steady stream of income from the drug trade. And it has increased the frequency of its attacks in the past two years, albeit in more remote areas of the country.”

And, in the short term, “violence could get worse,” Isacson says, with the FARC likely increasing “the tempo of its violent attacks to avenge the death of its ‘martyred military’ leader.” Nevertheless, Jojoy’s death does seem to make the possibility of Colombia-FARC negotiations more likely, at least in the “medium term,” as less military-minded leaders, such as Cano, gain more clear control of the FARC. Concluding, again Adam Isacson:

“If the FARC does eventually send good-faith signals of its willingness to talk, the Colombian government must respond positively and creatively by taking steps necessary to move toward dialogue. The United States, which has so generously funded Colombia’s war machine, must also be ready to accompany a possible peace effort.”

Staying with Colombia:

· The Washington Post has an interview out today with Juan Manuel Santos, conducted prior to news of yesterday’s strikes. He discusses the Uribe presidency, the FARC, Hugo Chavez, trade, and drugs. He saves the best for last. Santos on the drug problem and the need for Plan Colombia to “evolve” into something different:

“[Plan Colombia] should not finish because we still have the drug problem. As long as you have yuppies here snorting coke in New York, you have coca production in Colombia.”

· Also on drug policy, Brookings’ Vanda Felbab-Brown says marijuana legalization in Mexico is not a panacea for overcoming violence and organized crime in the country. In fact, she argues, legalization could exacerbate violence and paradoxically increase the drug trafficking organization’s [DTOs’] political power, in the short-term. Her recommendation is to focus rather on “improving Mexico’s law enforcement,” [see interesting data published by Reforma, on how slow-going one part of this process has been thus far.] Felbab-Brown:

“Without a capable and accountable police that are responsive to the needs of the people from tackling street crime to suppressing organized crime and that are backed-up by an efficient, accessible, and transparent justice system, neither legal nor illegal economies will be well-managed by the state.”

· Other stories on Mexico this morning include news of another Mexican mayor being murdered by suspected cartel hitmen. The murder took place in Doctor Gonzalez, a small municipality outside of Monterrey. The killing was the fourth of a public official in the country this month. The El Paso Times reports yesterday that Felipe Calderon claims the government has made an arrest of a suspect in the murder of journalist, Armando Rodriguez, a crime reporter for El Diario de Juarez who was killed two years ago. More on the new government protections being implemented for journalists, from the Wall Street Journal. From Frontera NorteSur, an excellent look at resident outrage with drug traffickers and organized crime – outrage which led to a mob citizen attack on two suspected kidnappers in the town of Ascensión this week. And outside the drug war, the New York Times yesterday on how the Mexican state is cracking down on abortions.

· Venezuela votes Sunday in highly anticipated legislative elections. The Wall Street Journal has a rather alarmist take on what’s at stake, ending its reporting with this perhaps overly dramatic quote from one Venezuelan opposition leader: “What is at stake on September 26 is that I believe we will choose between a Cuban-style Communism that we are being led to, or a Venezuelan-style Democracy.” Ditto from Armando Duran of the Center for Hemispheric Policy, in a Miami Herald opinion. Rory Carroll at the Guardian has a more nuanced view of Venezuela on the eve of elections. And MercoPress directs attention to an interesting COHA report on Venezuelan communes that is certainly worth a look. With elections on our minds, the take away line of the report:

“Ultimately, the debate over Venezuela’s communes demonstrates perfectly the opposition’s central flaw. They are not debating the issues relevant to the life of ordinary Venezuelans, or analyzing the merits of Chávez’s proposal. Instead, they paint all his proposals and ideas as a plot to turn Venezuela into the next Cuba. Regardless of how one feels about Chávez, this is a regrettable practice that undermines Venezuelan democratic institutions and deprives the Venezuelan people of a meaningful debate about the issues facing them today.”

· In New York City, Nicaragua’s consul general was found dead in his Bronx apartment yesterday, his throat cut and abdomen stabbed. No suspects and no motive as of yet.

· Two interesting pieces from this week’s Economist. A fascinating look at the possible rise of a new left in Peru – one of the only Latin American countries absent from the “pink tide” of the last decade.

“If the opinion polls are correct, Susana Villarán, a human-rights activist who is standing for a new left-wing party called Fuerza Social (Social Force), will be elected mayor of Lima, the capital, on October 3rd. It would be the first time the left has won the capital since 1983.”

And finally a look at the modernization of the Brazilian military, part of what the magazine characterizes as Brazil’s very concerted effort to enter onto the international stage.

Calderon Announces New Measures to Protect Journalists

Mexican President Felipe Calderon says his government will put in place a new plan aimed at protecting journalists, increasingly the target of drug-related violence in battles that have pitted Mexican security forces against drug traffickers. The AP reports that, according to a statement released by Mr. Calderon’s office Wednesday, the new initiative includes “an early warning system in which reporters would have immediate access to authorities when threatened, the creation of a council to identify the causes behind attacks on reporters, legal reforms, and a package of ‘best practices’ in journalism.”

The announcement comes after the murder of a photojournalist working for the Juarez’s El Diario last week and follows a Wednesday meeting between the Mexican President, the Inter-American Press Association and the Committee to Project Journalists (CPJ). According to Gonzalo Marroquin, the Inter-American Press Association’s vice president, the Mexico strategy resembles a similar initiative adopted in Colombia at the peak of that country’s struggle with drug-related violence. In Colombia that included “moving threatened journalists out of the areas where they worked” and “not adding bylines to stories on Colombia's cocaine business.”

In a press release about the Wednesday announcement, CPJ quotes President Calderon:

“We categorically reject any attack against journalists because this is an assault against democratic society. It pains me that Mexico is seen as one of the most dangerous places for the profession.”

The US-based media watchdog also says Mexico’s new journalist protection measures will include efforts for new legislation that “make attacks against free expression a federal crime.” [CPJ: “In 2008, the president proposed a Constitutional amendment that included federalization of anti-press crimes, among other things, but the measure stalled in Congress.”] According to Joel Simon, CPJ’s executive director and a participant in yesterday’s meetings with the President Calderon:

“President Calderon showed his deep commitment to press freedom issues by spending an hour and half with our delegation openly discussing the challenges and pledging a robust response. We commit to doing our part to ensure that Mexican journalists can work freely and safely in the face of this perilous environment.”

For more on violence against journalists in Mexico – particularly the response of El Diario de Juarez to last week’s brazen killing – the AP, the Investigative Fund, and In These Times have new reports. The latter interviews Charles Bowden, author of Murder City: Ciudad Juárez and the Global Economy’s New Killing Fields. The former says the UN and OAS have characterized El Diario’s powerful Sunday editorial (here and here) as a potential turning point for Mexicans, “pushing them to recognize the corrupting forces on freedom of expression in a country considered the most dangerous in the Americas for journalists.” Or, in the words of another Juarez-based newspaper editor who has limited his coverage of organized crime since his car was torched in 2005:

“[The editorial] is something unusual. I see it as a call to the people, a call to awaken society to what's happening in our country.”

A total of 65 news workers have been slain since 2000, according to Mexico's National Commission on Human Rights – at least 22 (plus7 disappearances) have been in the last four years alone.

To a round-up of other stories:

· Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has apparently taken the liberty of making several “modifications” to his country’s constitution while legislators vacationed last week. The full story from the CS Monitor which says the Ortega government printed new copies of the constitution last week, adding an article that was taken out of the document some 20 years ago. Here’s the CS Monitor:

“According to the resurrected second paragraph of Law 201, supreme court judges, electoral magistrates, and other public officials can remain in office beyond their term limits until new officials are appointed. The problem is, according to legal analysts, that the law was a ‘transitory’ provision in the 1987 Constitution and expired more than two decades ago. That's why it wasn't included in the current Constitution, which was printed after the reforms of 1995.”

Ortega’s FSLN contends that the re-inclusion of the article will ensure government stability and prevent “anarchy.” The opposition doesn’t quite see it that way. They argue it’s all part of Ortega’s bid for re-election, prohibited under the current constitution.

· With more on Venezuela before Sunday’s legislative vote, the Washington Post’s Juan Forero has his take on the Venezuela’s opposition, focusing on one time Chavez ally-turned-opponent, Lara Governor, Henri Falcon. While not on the ballot this weekend, Falcon is characterized by the paper as attempting to “carve out” a political space for “moderate leftists seeking an alternative to Chavez.” In particular, Falcon says his attempt has been to connect with Venezuelans who have tired of political polarization and confrontation. According to the Post, Falcon’s recently created party, Fatherland for All, could become a “kingmaker” in the next Congress, “if more traditional and conservative opposition also advance” after Sunday’s elections. More again from the Miami Herald as well, focusing on the issue of “voter disillusionment.”

· From the Global Post, a good report from John Otis on the legacy of Alvaro Uribe and the “rocky” start to the ex-Colombian president’s retirement. He’s been met with protests at Georgetown University, where he was controversially given a post as a distinguished scholar for the year. Meanwhile, in Colombia, “nearly a dozen of Uribe’s former advisers are under investigation for abuse of power and could end up in prison.” Nevertheless, Otis writes that pockets of significant popularity at home keep Uribe thinking about a potential run for mayor of Bogota next year.

· More on Colombia from Colombia Reports which says 26,000 homicides have been identified through the country’s Justice and Peace Process thus far. During a radio interview this week, the president of the National Reparation Commission, Eduardo Pizarro said that “The results of the application of the Justice and Peace law reveal that 26,000 murders have been identified, 44,000 crimes confessed, and 3,000 bodies discovered in mass graves, of which 1,000 bodies have been returned to their families.”

· President Barack Obama announced a new US foreign aid policy at the UN General Assembly Wednesday. In the words of the White House it will “target U.S. assistance at a select group of countries to help transform them into the next generation of emerging economies.” What might that mean for Latin America? Potentially a loss in USAID money and attention. The agency’s head Rajiv Shah tells the Washington Post that USAID plans to “move staff from Eastern Europe and Latin America to countries such as Ghana, Malawi and Bangladesh, which are becoming bigger priorities.” A bit more on the new foreign aid strategy from BBC Mundo. Latin American News Dispatch has more on the central position the UN Millennium Development Goals have taken at UN meetings this week, particularly a lack of progress made in fighting poverty. Also, an interesting speech by Venezuela’s ambassador to the UN, Jorge Valero, on what he calls his country’s “alternative” path toward achieving UN Millennium Development Goals.

· From Just the Facts, the Congressional Research Service says the US is now Latin America’s third largest arms provider, behind Russia and France.

· The Wilson Center has a new working paper out on the entry of Mexican black tar heroin into the Eastern US.

· From Argentina, the Wall Street Journal says criminal charges have been filed by the government against executives of the country’s two leading dailies, Clarin and La Nación. The government has accused the executives of human-rights violations, “saying they colluded with Argentina's 1976-1983 dictatorship to force the Graiver family to sell the company against their will.”

· With poll numbers. Dilma Rouseff still appears headed to a first round victory in Brazil, despite the recent corruption scandal within Lula da Silva’s government. Meanwhile, in Peru, Keiko Fujimori has emerged as the new favorite for 2011 presidential elections. In a full field, Fujimori has a 24 percent approval rating, followed by former Lima mayor Luis Castaneda with 19 percent, according to a poll by Ipsos Apoyo. Third is Alejandro Toledo, president from 2001 to 2006. And in fourth is the runner-up in the 2006 Ollanta Humala, with 14 percent.

Examining the Venezuelan Opposition

A week before elections in Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez says he will respect the results of Sunday’s legislative vote. He’s called on the opposition to do the same, says EFE. Election observers have also begun to arrive – although notably absent are observers from the European Union, the OAS, and the Carter Center, all of whom were not invited for the run-up to Sunday’s elections, unlike 2005. This time each political coalition is being allowed to bring in up to 30 observers from abroad, the Miami Herald says, but the paper maintains what they are able to report on is being “tightly controlled.” Rather, electoral monitoring Sunday will be primarily carried out by four Venezuelan NGOs, allowed to register 624 observers each. [The paper does add that Venezuela is hardly alone in keeping international observers “at bay.” Neither the US nor Brazil, for example, have allowed international organizations to monitor their election results].

Reuters’ Frank Jack Daniel has a long piece out examining the state of the Venezuelan opposition ahead of Sunday’s legislative vote. The piece is worth a full-read – filled with interviews with a variety of Chavez opponents, among them the young governor of Miranda, Henrique Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, the former mayor of Caracas, and the recently elected mayor of Petaré, Carlos Ocariz. Such individuals make up what Daniel calls a “new, savvier opposition” who “believe they can overcome what they and others consider distortions in Venezuela's democracy.” And September 26 will be a significant “test” of their “aspirations.”

The key insights from Daniel’s piece? First, the opposition seems far from unified. Despite the addition of a handful of new faces, “the Democratic Unity alliance which includes some 30 anti-Chavez organizations “could collapse after the elections, especially if it has a poor showing,” Reuters reports. And even if it survives past September 26, Daniel continues, “bitter infighting can be expected over who will become the candidate to face Chavez in 2012.”

Second, what success the opposition has made has come through its partial adoption of chavista concerns and strategies – namely taking the country's popular sectors seriously. Again, Daniel:

“The new wave of young leaders… are campaigning and doing social work in the shanty towns that cover Caracas's hills, putting the fight against poverty at the center of the debate and even co-opting some of Chavez's policies and tactics.”

In addition, “they often speak admiringly of the combination of poverty reduction and market economics that made leftist Lula such a success in neighboring Brazil.” One of the young faces of the opposition highlighted in the piece, the Petaré mayor, Carlos Ocariz, has even tried to emulate, at the municipal level, “Mexican and Brazilian social programs that offer financial reward to poor families if their children have a high school attendance rate.”

Third, Daniel characterizes Venezuelan democracy under Chávez as still “vibrant,” albeit with significant distortions. Again, to quote Reuters:

“Political debate is noisily conducted on TV screens, in newspapers and on street corners. Parties splash campaign publicity on billboards and hand out flyers on street corners. Participation in community councils founded by Chavez gives millions of Venezuelans a say in how local development is carried out, and a dozen elections since Chavez took office in 1999 have taken place without significant election day fraud."

The principal shortcoming of chavista democracy – one which has, in part, hampered the organization of the opposition: the fact that the government has created a “clearly uneven” electoral playing field based on “political discrimination.” That has included threats that social spending will be diverted away from municipalities and states which elect opposition and selectively barring certain opposition candidates from running in elections through a process called “inhabilitation.” [On the first point, however, Daniel does point out that up to this point the central government has continued to provide “the legally apportioned budget and an additional share of tax and excess oil income to states and municipalities, although sometimes it is slow in doing so.” The opposition fears that this could change when a new body, overseen by the president, assumes greater control over resource allocation next year].

Fourth, many Venezuelans – even Chavez’s political base in the urban popular sectors – seem to be tiring of political polarization. Daniel’s case in point: the 2008 election of Carlos Ocariz, a foreign-trained technocrat, previously employed at the Inter-American Development Bank, in the poor municipality of Petaré. But again, the Chávez model of increased social inclusion has been requirement for such candidates to succeed. Ocariz, for example, continues to give “30 percent of the municipality's budget for investment to grassroots groups, including community councils -- the foundation of Chavez's notion of participatory democracy.”

And finally, with respect to Sunday’s vote, it’s Chavez’s PSUV who will almost certainly come out on top. Nationally, the PSUV is now running slightly ahead of the opposition. And due to redistricting, in legislative voting (which occurs by district, not nationally) the opposition would seem lucky if they were to win one-third of the seats in parliament.

Moving on:

· In Chihuahua Mexico, the AP reports this morning that a “mob” of dozens of angry citizens beat two alleged kidnappers to death Tuesday. The incident highlights growing resident frustration, not only with the cartels but also with state security forces. The AP: “Residents shouted at the federal officers and held signs that read ‘We are tired, fed up with kidnappings, no more kidnappings in Asencion.’” Continuing in Mexico, Bloomberg says Mexican President Felipe Calderon has rejected reports that his party’s political leader, Cesar Nava, suggested making an accord with organized crime syndicates in the country. That story had been reported by Juarez’s El Diario, which has since retracted, saying an imposter, claiming to be Nava, had told the paper this. From Reuters, news that threatened Mexican journalist Jorge Luis Aguirre, editor of Ciudad Juarez-based online newspaper “La Polaka,” has been granted asylum in the US after fleeing to El Paso in 2008. Reuters: “Aguirre is one of the first Mexican reporters to be granted political asylum in the United States.” Meanwhile, in Austin, Texas, journalists from around the region gathered last week for the Austin Forum for Journalism in the Americas, organized by the Knight Center and the Open Society Institute. Focus was on the coverage of organized crime and journalism in Latin America, and, says CIPER, attendees condemned growing threats of violence faced by journalists across the region.

· BBC Mundo reports on mass protests which have erupted in Cusco against a major irrigation development project in the Southern part of the Peru. According to the report, classes have been canceled throughout Cusco and commercial activity has “come to a halt” due to the protests.

· From the LA Times yesterday, a report on next year’s presidential elections in Nicaragua. The piece warns that the campaign could become “dirty and violent,” likely pitting sitting President Daniel Ortega against another strongman, Liberal Arnoldo Aleman. Best quote of the article:

“Many Nicaraguans bemoan the fact they are faced with such a bleak choice, aware that the genuine opposition to Ortega is more fragmented than plate glass in a shooting gallery.”

· Evo Morales got the attention of some Tuesday, telling CNN he is considering a third term in 2015, given the fact that his 2010 election was the first under the country’s new constitution (AFP). [The new constitution allows for re-election once]. Speaking Monday at Hunter College for the presentation of Argentine journalist Martin Sivak’s new biography of the Bolivian president, Evo quickly rejected the notion of indefinite re-election in Bolivia. “Under the Bolivian constitution, there is no indefinite re-election,” the president responded to an audience member’s question about his views of indefinite re-election in Bolivia.

· Also related to UN General Assembly meetings in New York, Reuters says President Obama plans to meet briefly with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos Thursday. The meeting would be the first between the two leaders. According to the White House, the meeting would focus on “ways we can strengthen our bilateral relationship going forward.”

· In Chile, EFE says that the families of Mapuche indigenous activists, jailed under the country’s Pinochet era anti-terrorist law, have rejected a proposed dialogue with the government. The government’s initiative “does not have the goal of resolving the demands of the (hunger) strikers,” Mapuche spokesperson Natividad Llanquileo said outside a prison in Concepcion. The hunger strikes have demanded the annulment of the anti-terror act and the “demilitarization” of their region.

· Finally, a report on Brazil and the global economy from the Washington Post and a look at changes in the Cuban economy, through the eyes of Miami’s Cuban-American community, in the New York Times.

"El Diario" Clarifies: No Plans to "Surrender"

El Diario de Juarez, the principal daily of the battered Mexican border town of Ciudad Juarez, has rejected reports that it has any plans of “restricting” its coverage of the drug wars. As I wrote here yesterday, the AP characterized the paper’s Sunday editorial, entitled “What do you want from Us?” as a sign that El Diario would be adopting self-censorship of the bloody violence which continues along the US-Mexico border. The editorial followed the murder of the paper’s photographer, Luis Carlos Santiago Orozco, late last week – the second journalist El Diario has lost to drug violence in the last two years.

On Monday, El Diario clarified its position, highlighting that the Sunday editorial explicitly rejected the notion that the paper had any plans of “surrender.” Here’s El Diario’s news editor, Pedro Torres, as quoted in the Washington Post today:

“[W]e will keep on doing the same work as always. We have not changed at all. It is an intolerable situation. But we do not want to give up. We will continue.”

Another reporter maintains that the AP “misunderstood” and “over-interpreted” the Sunday editorial. Monday’s front page story, the paper says, is proof that it has no plans of stepping down its coverage of crime and violence. That story was an investigation on impunity, detailing the Mexican government's failure to make legal cases against four members of the Artistic Assassins gang, recently accused by the government of killing 55 people in Juarez. The four individuals had been “paraded before cameras” by Mexican authorities but were later released, El Diario reported Monday.

The New York Times this morning has more on the El Diario story. It says what others are now reporting with respect to the murder of Luis Carlos Santiago Orozco last week: namely, that Mexican authorities now claim a “personal grievance” was the “probable motive” for the killing of the 21-year-old. However, the Times adds that “officials made no mention of the common calling card of Mexico’s drug gangs: a message left hanging on a street corner warning the police that they would meet the same fate as Mr. Santiago.” And, writing on her Frontera List listserv, Mexico watcher Molly Molloy, adds that such assertions by Mexican authorities are a “common tactic when the government wants to defame the character of the people who have been murdered.”

With one more note on drug-related violence in Mexico:

· A report from the Wall Street Journal today that two Honduran diplomats were briefly detained by a “presumed drug gang” over the weekend. According to the paper, that incident has prompted Honduras to “warn Mexico…that it might close several consulates here if Mexico can’t provide adequate security for diplomats.” The Honduran diplomats were released, in handcuffs, after the car being driven by their captors crashed. This according to a statement from the Honduran government. The car itself apparently belonged to the Honduran consul, Raul Morazán, “raising suspicion that he may have been the intended target.”

· McClatchy has more on the addition of three Central American countries – Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and the aforementioned Honduras – to the United States’ list of “major drug trafficking nations.” The news service says their inclusion was “front page news” throughout the region, but adds that “there was little expectation that the designation would mean the U.S. will make new money and other resources available.” With the addition of the three Central American countries, today only El Salvador and Belize are not considered by the US government to be major Central American transshipment points for narcotics.

· Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the AP reports that two major drug trafficking suspects recently detained by the Venezuelan government were deported to the United States Monday. The two include Jaime Alberto Marin, a kingpin of the very powerful Norte del Valle cartel in Colombia. As the AP notes, “the action came only days after the U.S. criticized Venezuela's cooperation in fighting illegal narcotics.” That criticism was rejected by Venezuelan officials, with Justice Minister Tareck El Aissami calling the manner in which the U.S. judges anti-drug policies of other countries “irresponsible, arbitrary and unilateral.” For its part, the U.S. Embassy did not directly address the White House’s designation of Venezuela as uncooperative in the fight against traffickers but did note Monday’s transfers were a “positive development.”

· More on last weekend’s Colombian air strike against a FARC camp near the Ecuadorean border, from EFE and Al-Jazeera. The former reports that Colombian officials now say 27 FARC rebels – members of the group’s 48th Front -- were killed during the strike. Among those killed was Sixto Antonio Cabañas, the 48^th Front’s political chief and member of the FARC’s general staff. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Rodrigo Rivera is quoted by Al-Jazeera, calling the offensive a “serious blow” to the FARC operating in the province of Putumayo.

· Changes continue in Cuba, with Raúl Castro dismissing the country’s Minister of Basic Industries (MINBAS), Yadira García, this week. According to El País, the ministry is in charge of strategic sectors of the Cuban economy, including energy, petroleum, and nickel. The changes mean that 60% of the “Fidel-era” cabinet has been changed since Raúl Castro assumed power. Meanwhile, Phil Peters at the Cuban Triangle has the latest on additional prisoner releases. Via the AP, he says the Havana Archdiocese, in a statement last Friday, expects four more political prisoners to be freed shortly. When/If this occurs, that would mean 36 individuals have “accepted the proposal to leave prison and move to Spain.” For more reflections on the recently announced reforms in Cuba, longtime Cuba watcher and filmmaker Saul Landau has a new piece on Truthdig. While in the Miami Herald dissident blogger Yoani Sanchez offers some interesting thoughts about the impact of information technology on the island, arguing “the request to President Obama from the firms Nokia, AT&T and Verizon, asking for an easing of the embargo and trade with Cuba, is a ray of hope for us.” Sanchez:

“When, Raúl Castro allowed us to contract for prepaid mobile phone service in 2008, no one would have imagined that two years later these devices would be used to broadcast news censored by the official press. Through text-only messages we inform ourselves and send news out to the world. Since August 2009, some in Cuba have begun to use Twitter for small alerts, or S.O.S. calls sent from cell phones. And independent journalism and the alternative blogosphere have realized an old dream, long deferred: immediacy.”

· The AP yesterday reported on what was only Haiti’s second presidential debate ever, held Saturday. However, the event seemed to be anything but a success, with the news service calling it “a sparsely attended event that was short on detailed responses from the candidates and disrupted by multiple power blackouts.” Indeed, only 4 of the 19 candidates even bothered to show up.

· In Paraguay, President Fernando Lugo has dismissed the heads of the army, navy, air force, and five additional senior officers, says the BBC. This is the fourth time Lugo has replaced his military’s top commanders since taking office in 2008. Paraguay’s Defense Minister, Gen. Cecilio Perez Bordon, said the moves are an attempt at “institutionalizing the structure of the armed forces.”

· The New York Times with a story on Brazil’s elections, and the corruption scandal involving Lula’s chief of staff who replaced presidential candidate Dilma Rouseff. The news has “exploded onto the headlines [in Brazil],” the Times reports, “suddenly threatening to push the election to a runoff and sully the da Silva government’s reputation.”

· Interesting words from Uruguayan President José Mujica this week. In his daily radio program, Mujica said his country plans to recognize Palestine sometime in the next year, adding that his country will also “continue to have solid relations with Iran,” because it is “in his country’s interest” to do so.

· In Argentina, the Guardian looks at the resurgence of Cristina Kirchner, who has seen a resurgence in her popularity over the last year. Written off as a lame duck just two years ago, the Guardian says “an unexpected economic recovery fuelled by government spending has helped double the president's rating to just under 40%, which is considered enough to win presidential elections set for October 2011.” [Most expect Nestor Kirchner to run again]. MercoPress with more on the economic numbers, which seem to be responsible for the Kirchners’ return.

· Finally, at Rising Powers blog, a primer on Latin America’s economic success of the last year, commenting on the Economist’s recent special report on the region. Roger Scher, former manager of Fitch’s Latin American Sovereign Ratings group, credits economic success to two principal policies: “1) the consensus among Latin American politicians that conquering inflation has benefitted the poor and strengthened democracy; and 2) the massive build-up in foreign reserves that has insulated the region from the global crisis, driven in part by healthy macro policies.”

"El Diario de Juarez" to Cartels: What Do you Want From Us?

The principal daily paper in Mexico’s Ciudad Juarez, El Diario de Juarez, says it will be making significant cuts to its coverage of the country’s bloody drug wars. According to the AP, the changes come after last week’s murder of a photographer working for the paper. The self-censorship was announced on the front page editorial this weekend, which asked drug cartels to clarify what it is they want from the paper so it can continue its work without further death and intimidation.” Here’s El Diario de Juarez, speaking to the city’s “de facto authorities,” as quoted by the AP:

“Leaders of the different organizations that are fighting for control of Ciudad Juarez: The loss of two reporters from this publishing house in less than two years represents an irreparable sorrow for all of us who work here, and, in particular, for their families. We ask you to explain what you want from us, what we should try to publish or not publish, so we know what to expect.”

The Committee to Protect Journalists has documented the murders or disappearances of more than 30 Mexican journalists over the last four years. At least eight of those murders are directly related to coverage of crime and corruption cases, says the US-based media watchdog group. And on Wednesday the CPJ plans to meet with Mexican president Felipe Calderon to share, in person, its growing concern for the safety of reporters working in the country. As the AP reports, CPJ is asking that the Calderon make attacks on news media a federal crime and create a government committee to protect threatened journalists. The group is also calling on the Mexican government to grant more autonomy to Mexico's federal special prosecutor for crimes against reporters -- an office that the media group has called “ineffective.” Speaking to El Diario’s decision to restrict its coverage Sunday, CPJ’s senior coordinator Carlos Lauria had the following to say:

“Even in one of the places where violence is worst ... El Diario was still doing a lot of good reporting on crime. The fact that they're giving up is really bad. It's an indication that the situation is out of control.”

With additional coverage of Mexico and the drug wars this weekend: Al-Jazeera reports on the increased use of US Predator B drones to patrol the US-Mexico border, even amidst Mexico’s celebration of its independence. “Fears of Latino migrants and spiraling drug violence in Mexico, have led the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to deploy drones to monitor the entire border since September 1, along with a further deployment of 1,200 troops and other measures, as part of a $600m package for ‘enhanced security,’” says Al-Jazeera, highlighting the adaptation of a technology used in Iraq and Afghanistan to Mexico. The AP says the bodies of two police officers recently kidnapped while investigating a death in the state of Guerrero found Saturday. Seven still remain missing. Also in Guerrero, perhaps the most grotesque documentation of drug violence this weekend: “[U]nidentified men traveling in two vehicles threw two human heads into a refreshment stand in Coyuca de Catalan…One of the heads was blindfolded with duct tape.” Congressman Eliot Engel (D-NY) responds to last week’s Washington Post editorial on gun trafficking from the US to Mexico, recommending that a ban on the importation of “firearms not used for sporting purposes” be enforced once again in the US. At Upside Down World, an interview with British academic Peter Watt, originally published in La Jornada, looks at the connection between today’s drug wars and neoliberalization of the Mexican state, beginning in the 1980s. And a very interesting interview with the author of El Blog del Narco – the most widely read “narco blog” documenting growing drug violence in Mexico.

To other stories:

· The Obama administration released its annual report on the worldwide efforts against drug trafficking last week. The report has not garnered much media attention (what attention it has received has focused on Bolivia, cited by the US again as having “failed demonstrably” in its anti-drug efforts.) Drawing even less attention has been the first time addition of Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua to the list of drug trafficking nations. A report from Nicaragua’s La Prensa has more on the latter country – particularly the response of Daniel Ortega’s government that it agrees with the United States inclusion of Nicaragua, and wants more US anti-drug aid as a result. For more on Nicaragua’s counter-narcotics efforts, Tim Rogers has a good report at the Nica Times.

· More on Bolivia and the drug trade. According to the AP, Bolivian VP Alvaro Garcia Linera said Sunday that drug trafficking added between 300 and 700 million dollars to his country’s Bolivian economy in 2009. That’s between 1.5 and 3% of the country’s total GDP, Garcia Linera says, adding his country remains committed to fighting such activity within its borders.

· Also in Central America, EFE reports that former Honduran President Mel Zelaya has been sworn-in as a Central American Parliament (Parlacen) deputy. The “surprise” event took place in Guatemala late last week. All former presidents become deputies of Parlacen after they leave office. Thus, by swearing-in the former Honduran leader, ousted in a June 2009 coup, the Central American body appears to have officially recognized Zelaya as the constitutionally legitimate ex Honduran president.

· With additional reporting and opinions on Cuba’s economic restructuring, Marc Lacey for the New York Times has a tempered analysis of what we might expect as private enterprise becomes more prominent on the island. “The mix of consumerism and authoritarianism that one finds in Vietnam and China is presumably a more palatable model — privatization, but with the state in firm control,” says Lacey. But, Lacey adds, “in China and Vietnam the path toward a modern economy was carefully coordinated with a series of steps toward normalization of relations with the United States.” Right now it seems too early to say if the United States Congress is prepared to move in that direction. From the Miami Herald’s Cuban Colada blog, news that Brazil plans to advise Cuba on how to support the growth of small and medium-sized businesses. Conservative Washington Post columnist George Will comments on Cuba this weekend and concludes with recommendations for significant US policy changes. Here’s Will:

“Today, the U.S. policy of isolating Cuba by means of economic embargoes and travel restrictions serves two Castro goals: It provides an alibi for Cuba's social conditions, and it insulates Cuba from some of the political and cultural forces that brought down communism in Eastern Europe. The 11th president, Barack Obama, who was born more than two years after Castro seized power, might want to rethink this policy, now that even Castro is having second thoughts about fundamentals.”

Sarah Stephens of the Center for Democracy in the Americas backs up Will’s call for the US to follow Cuba with policy changes of its own, at the Huffington Post. “By failing to act in response to what Cuba is doing,” Stephens writes, “the President is undermining the credibility of his Cuba program.” Meanwhile, recent developments in Cuba are hardly changing the hard line position of the Washington Post. In an editorial this morning, the Post provocatively argues that “apologists for the Castros and for U.S. corporate agriculture” who “greeted the half step with renewed calls for the lifting of what remains of the embargo on trade with Cuba” are playing into “the Castros' strategy.” Only when Cuba ensures political freedom, the Post argues, should the US allow “tourists and business executives to return to the island.”

· One week before Venezuelans head to the polls for legislative elections, the curiously timed announcement that the US had detained a former Los Alamos nuclear scientist and his wife for allegedly attempting to provide nuclear secrets to Venezuela. In 2008 (two years ago), the couple had apparently been talking with an undercover US agent, posing as a Venezuelan, about their ambitious plans. To be clear (unlike John Bolton last week), US officials say there is “no information from the undercover operation that Hugo Chavez's government has any plans to try to build a nuclear weapon,” nor is there any evidence that the Venezuelan government had any role in the affair.

· With pieces actually related to Venezuela, the New York Times’ Simon Romero is critical of the Chavez government’s claims that it has improved indigenous inclusion. “Some indigenous people still face a more vexing reality than [the Chavez] government’s words suggest,” says Romero. But, he adds, “reflecting Venezuela’s political complexity, most of the Warao interviewed here expressed loyalty to Mr. Chávez,” citing “access to some social programs, including literacy projects, as reasons for their allegiance.” Also, two pieces on elections in the Miami Herald [here and here].

· A full summary of Peruvian presidential contender Ollanta Humala’s talk last week at the Inter-American Dialogue is now available here.

· A Colombian air raid near the Ecuador border, combined with a “ground assault,” has killed at least 22 FARC rebels, the AP reports.

· And on the underreported conflict between Mapuches and the Chilean government, BBC Mundo with more on this weekend’s announcement that a round of talks has at last been agreed to by the Pinera government in order to resolve problems stemming from the use of a Pinochet-era anti-terrorism law to imprison Mapuche activists.

On Cuba's Economic Restructuring

While the Cuban government prepares to lay off 10 percent of its public sector workforce – some 500,000 individuals – analysts of the region are discussing what may be next for the island. In the Washington Post this morning, Wayne Smith, former chief of the US Interests Section in Havana and now senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, calls the recently announced changes “a major step forward,” but one which the government had little choice in making due to the failing state of its economy. Here’s the paper’s take on the country’s current economic woes:

“The island is suffering a brutal economy crisis in which its official gross national product has plummeted from 12 percent growth to 1 percent, as nickel prices, tourism and international investment all slump. The Cubans were so desperate that they froze the accounts of foreign investors on the island earlier this year. Independent economists say that without subsidies of Venezuelan oil from Hugo Chavez, the Cuban economy would flat-line.”

And the first steps toward a resolution, according to a government PowerPoint presentation, originally obtained by the AP: initial layoffs of the “least productive, least disciplined workers,” followed by others who perform “unnecessary jobs.” By March 2011 the government expects all 500,000 of its public sector job cuts to have been completed, with Cuban officials hoping the private sector can pick up the slack. The latter half of the proposed project is a really big deal, says the Lexington Institute’s Philip Peters. It’s a “breakthrough,” in the words of Peters, “because for the first time the government acknowledges that the private sector, the small-business operators, are not bit players but a strategic part of the Cuban economy.” [Currently some 823,000 Cubans work in the private sector, the majority in government-sanctioned cooperatives]. However, the Post suggests laid off workers may largely be on their own when it comes to looking for new work. While the government’s agenda includes promoting new cooperative enterprises, the restructuring project indicates no plans as of yet for “capital injections, small business loans, retraining or more opportunities for foreign investment.”

The Council on Foreign Relations’ Julia Sweig and the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg have more on the Cuban economy, speaking with Margaret Warner on last night’s PBS Newshour. The two were recently with Fidel Castro in Havana – meetings which have garnered significant attention because of the former Cuban leader’s words about a now non-functioning Cuban communist economic model. On this week’s announcements, here’s Sweig:

“This is about changing the relationship between the state and the individual, so that the government can grab rents and use taxes to fund entitlements. Kind of sounds familiar, but it's a deep change in the political culture.”

Meanwhile, on the US side of things, the Miami Herald suggests this morning that the long-anticipated extension of US travel rights to Cuba may not happen until after November’s mid-term elections. That according to staunchly pro-embargo Florida congresswoman, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who met with the Cuban affairs coordinator at the State Dept. this week. She says DOS indicated to her that “no policy decisions are ready to be announced,” but Ros-Lehtinen added “we know those changes are coming.” Various media outlets have reported that the White House had decided to ease restrictions on educational and cultural travel to Cuba shortly but no official announcements have yet been made by the Obama administration. In Congress, the Herald adds, “a bill that would lift all restrictions on U.S. travel to Cuba remained in limbo, with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman, D-Calif., telling reporters earlier this month that he's five short of the votes needed to send it to the full House.”

In other news today:

· The LA Times reports on more violence against journalists in Mexico. Two newspaper photographers from the Juarez-based Diario de Juarez were attacked by gunmen Thursday. One of the two was killed. The other remains in critical condition. According to the Times report, “several Mexican newspapers have stopped reporting on drug-gang violence after their journalists have been attacked. However, the Diario de Juarez, the city’s principal paper, has continued. Meanwhile, at a ranch in Tamaulipas a gunfight between the military and suspected traffickers appears to have left 22 dead. And in Nuevo Leon on Wednesday soldiers are reported to have killed 19 cartel gunmen.

· On Colombia, the Latin America News Dispatch has a great report on the Department of Administrative Security (DAS) and the “political warfare” it coordinated against government critics, particularly journalists, under the Uribe administration. The piece begins with the story of threats made against journalist Claudia Duque, mentioned here recently after the UK denied her an entry visa. The piece also recaps threats made against journalist Hollman Morris and others. LAND:

“It is possible that the agency’s criminal behavior is rooted in the actions of a few renegade administrators, such as Jorge Noguera, who approached their mission to snuff the guerrilla insurgency with excessive enthusiasm. But as the investigation continues, it appears that the executive may have played a greater role than it admits.”

· Also on Colombia, this week’s Economist examines Juan Manuel Santos’s proposal for agrarian reform – an initiative the magazine says would be nothing short of “revolutionary” if it succeeds in returning land to those have had it confiscated by drug traffickers and paramilitaries. The Economist:

“On September 7th Mr Santos’s administration published a bill to create special courts to oversee land restitution. It would also reverse the burden of proof, requiring owners to show they acquired land legally and without violence or threats. The aim is to restore 2m hectares to the dispossessed over the next four years.”

· The New York Times reports on new clashes over natural resources in Peru. One demonstrator opposing a new irrigation project was killed by security forces in the town of Espinar, Thursday – the latest conflict between the government’s devleopmentalist agenda and local environmental concerns.

· In Honduras, Wednesday demonstrations in the city of San Pedro Sula left at least one dead. According to the AP, the government suggested the clashes pitted pro and anti-government groups against each other. Protestors disagree, saying the police attacked without provocation.” More from Honduras Culture and Politics.

· The New York Times says Lula da Silva’s chief of staff, Ernice Guerra, has resigned under allegations she received kickbacks for various public works projects. Former chief of staff and presidential front-runner, Dilma Rouseff, however, seems unaffected by the ethics scandal thus far, and continues to pull away from her closest contender, José Serra.

· From BBC Mundo, news that former Guatemalan military man Gilberto Jordan has been sentenced to 10 years in prison by a US court for trying to mask his role in the massacre of some 251 Guatemalans at Dos Erres in 1982. Guatemala had asked that Jordan be extradited and tried in Guatemala.

· And finally, George W. Bush’s former UN ambassador, John Bolton, tried his hand at Latin American affairs this week with an opinion in the LA Times on Venezuela’s upcoming legislative elections. Bolton begins with this quite provocative (and evidence-free) eyebrow-raiser: “The stakes are especially high in light of evidence consistent with an emerging Venezuelan nuclear weapons program.”

State Dept. Grants Colombia Human Rights Certification

The US State Department says Colombia is making significant progress in improving its human rights record, opening the door for more than $30 million in US military to the country for the fiscal year 2011. The evaluation came as part of DOS’s annual certification report required under Plan Colombia and turned into the US Congress last week. According to AFP, the report maintains that “Though there continues to be a need for improvement, the Colombian government has taken positive steps to improve respect for human rights in the country.” Of newly elected president Juan Manuel Santos, DOS contends the former defense minister “has taken significant steps to demonstrate that it takes human rights seriously” and praises Santos’s early push land reform – what it calls “monumental legislation” to return millions acres of stolen land to displaced persons.

However, there remain serious reservations. “Impunity remains a concern... (and) threats by criminal groups against human rights defenders and civil society in Colombia are also deeply troubling,” DOS notes. The AP writes that to date, “191 members of Colombian security forces have been convicted of extra-judicial killings and nearly 300 are on trial. In addition, “prosecutors on Wednesday charged 29 soldiers with murder in the 2005 case of two men slain and presented to authorities as leftist rebels killed in combat” – one of many “false positives” cases still under investigation..

The US Congress must now vote on authorizing the $30 million plus – monies which US officials say will support Colombian military aviation, ground and maritime programs as well as training for peacekeepers and equipment.

In other Colombia-related news:

· From the UK’s Telegraph (via Latin America News Dispatch), a report that two Colombian hitmen, suspected of working as “debt collectors” for Colombian drug cartels, were arrested in Spain’s Valencia region this week. The two men are suspected of killing as many as 200 individuals, working on behalf of Colombia’s Norte del Valle drug cartel, (aka La Negra) and traffickers connected to the old Self Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC). The Interior Ministry in Spain commented on the arrests, calling the two men “the most dangerous Colombian citizens to have been detained in Spain up until now.” Both men face extradition back to Colombia. From the Economist, a look at the recent uptick in FARC activity in Colombia – actions which led to President Juan Manuel Santos’s recent call for intensified military operations against the group. The Economist:

“Recently…the FARC has delivered brutal reminders that they have not been vanquished yet. On September 1st, a police convoy in the province of Caquetá was destroyed by a mine laid by the guerrillas, who later burned the bodies of the 14 victims. Nine days later, the group fired homemade mortars made from cooking-gas cylinders on a police station in the town of San Miguel, on the Ecuadorean border, claiming eight lives. All told, the FARC has killed 40 police and soldiers over the last month.”

And in what looks like a repeat of the Hollman Morris case, award-winning Colombian journalist Claudia Duque has been refused a visa to enter a major Western country. This time it’s the UK who has turned the journalist away (although it’s still unclear why her visa application was rejected). According to the Guardian, Duque’s work has revealed “the infiltration of extreme right-wing paramilitary groups into government institutions.” The journalist had hoped to visit London as part of a European tour in which she collected a press freedom award in Stockholm from the Swedish branch of Reporters Without Borders.

· Three recent pieces updating the situation in Haiti. The LA Times looks at the ongoing challenges of resettling the country’s millions of homeless, as well as questions about who owns what land. The LAT: “The government and foreign aid groups want to move many back to their old neighborhoods or open spaces nearby and build single-family shelters for them. But to avoid roiling an already volatile situation, they must know who owns the land they're building on.” More on the matter from Mother Jones magazine, looking at the entrance of “disaster capitalists” and the mass land expulsions of already displaced Haitians which have followed. The magazine says the issue has flown under the radar screen of most NGOs in the country, putting displaced persons “at the mercy of landowners anxious to reclaim their property.” Finally, the Miami Herald on the progress report given by Haitian PM Jean-Max Bellerive at the Americas Conference in Florida this week. His tone: a more positive one. Bellerive: “Like the famous iceberg, much of what we've accomplished is hidden from open view. We have not had a thousand days. We've only had 240 days. And what we have accomplished in those brief 240 days is, under the circumstances, remarkable when weighed against the challenges.”

· BBC Mundo has more on Alvaro Colom’s push for an anti-gang law in Guatemala, following the legislation recently approved in El Salvador. Colom’s notion suggests the desire on the part of some Central American governments for a more coordinated “regional strategy” against organized crime. For its part, the UNPD seems to support the idea with its coordinator for governability quoted in the piece saying that the sub-region needs “articulated measures” that “allow it to confront the problem in a regional manner.” More on the issues of crime and democracy in Central America at AQ today.

· New Datanálisis pre-election numbers for Venezuela were discussed at the Americas Conference yesterday. The Miami Herald has the report on the latest survey data which shows 27 percent of the total electorate planning to vote for Chávez allies in upcoming legislative elections. Twenty-four percent will vote for opposition candidates and 30 percent undecided. The data for the poll was collected in the month of August.

· While I haven’t had a chance to listen, the Inter-American Dialogue has the audio of Ollanta Humala’s talk yesterday in Washington DC up at its site.

· Andres Oppenheimer comments on the World Bank’s new regional assessment of the place of primary commodities in Latin America’s recent economic success, as I discussed here recently. His view is less optimistic than the Bank’s: “Even if the World Bank study is calling on commodity exporting countries to save for a rainy day and to add value to their raw materials, I'm afraid that it will send the wrong message to countries that rely on commodity export.”

· And finally the AP and Time with reports on bicentennial festivities in Mexico. Here’s Time with a its attempt at analytical reflection, often lost among daily drug war body counts:

“Mexico actually has a lot to celebrate this week. Its fledgling, decade-old democracy is taking deeper root, and its economy is far more modern and productive than it was before Mexico inked NAFTA 16 years ago. But the flaw holding Mexico back — the reason its landscape is still loaded with gluttonous monopolies, dismal schools and bloodthirsty narco-gangs — is its lack of, if not disdain for, functioning institutions. More specifically, rule of law.”