Friday, August 7, 2009

On the Power of the Honduran Economic and Political Elites

A “small clique of families that dominates the economy” in Honduras remains the greatest stumbling block between ousted Manuel Zelaya and the presidency he once controlled. This is according to the AP today. And, further, the AP writes, this attitude among elites in Honduras may be spreading to other parts of the region where similar political and economic elites “plot their own strategies to combat democratically elected presidents such as Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez who have demonized the wealthy as they push for a more even distribution of wealth.” Interestingly, it’s this same powerful economic class that Zelaya himself belonged (or still belongs) to as a rancher and logging magnate in the country. Adolfo Facusse, a businessman in the publishing and textile business in Honduras, says he still considers Zelaya a friend, even given his policy choices as president. But Hugo Chavez? Now that’s another story. Mel Zelaya is one of us and - well - it just got out of his control. But the people think that he is an instrument of Chavez and that the fight is with Chavez. As Facusse tells the AP, there really is no sense of urgency amongst those who control the Honduran economy to find a resolution to the current crisis. Regarding potential sanctions, “The attitude here is, ‘So what?’” says Facusse. “At any rate there will be elections in November.” In many ways, it’s this attitude within the Honduran elite, as well as within the military itself, which many close to Zelaya now concede he miscalculated. “We underestimated the conservatism of the Honduran political class and the military leadership,” says Victor Mesa, the president’s former interior minister. Meanwhile, McClatchy’s Tyler Bridges picks up on yesterday’s top story on the State Dept’s correspondence to Sen. Richard Lugar. Bridges points out that “while condemning the coup, the letter pointedly fails to call for Zelaya's return. ‘Our policy and strategy for engagement is not based on supporting any particular politician or individual,’ said the letter written to the SFRC’s ranking member. [Yesterday’s WSJ report on the letter adds that the State Dept. has yet to decide if the June 28 ouster of Zelaya was really a “coup.” In fact, State officials have called the removal of Zelaya a “coup” on at least five occasions, but they have never called it a “military” coup. The power of a single word!] It’s possible now that three State Dept. appointees that have been held up by very conservative Republicans in the Senate, Lugar not among them, because of the president’s handling of the Honduras situation thus far will finally get through the confirmation process. The letter was not received with such a positive response in Tegucigalpa, however, where about 1000 demonstrators protested in front of the U.S. Embassy there.

On President Alvaro Uribe’s Latin America bases tour, BBC writes that the Colombian leader received “tacit support” from Brazil’s Lula da Silva for his plans to increase the U.S. military presence in his country. Like Chile before it, Brazil’s foreign minister said it considered the matter to be “a sovereign Colombian matter.” Lula last week showed deep concern about the forthcoming agreement between the U.S. and Colombia. Casting a dissenting “vote” against the military plans of Colombia, however, was Uruguay. Students of Uruguayan history know Uruguay’s historic opposition to the notion of foreign military bases in the region (dating back to some fierce debates during World War II), and Frente Amplio President Tabaré Vázquez relied on such feelings to say he opposed Uribe’s decision to increase U.S. military presence in Colombia as well. The Vázquez administration also called on the region to resolve its conflicts “through peaceful means.” And former Colombian President Ernesto Samper made a similar plea to Hugo Chavez on Thursday. Chavez welcomed Samper to Caracas where the former head of state said he was there to “open a door in Colombia’s relations with Venezuela.” The prior door was locked last week when Chavez froze diplomatic relations with Colombia.

Brazil’s Lula da Silva likely had his mind elsewhere when meeting with Uribe yesterday. As the New York Times writes the president of the Brazilian Senate, José Sarney, is facing numerous calls to resign because of his potential role in a growing corruption scandal. Sarney, who is not from Lula’s PT but has become a strong congressional ally of the president, has even been considered a possible replacement for Lula when his term as president ends. (Sarney was once president before). But this seems all but impossible now as he faces charges of handing out favors, including lucrative government contracts, to friends and family.

An AP article and LA Times opinion piece look at Mexico this morning. First, the AP says Mexico’s National Human Rights Commission rejects a report commissioned by federal prosecutors that “supports the assertion that U.S. journalist Bradley Will was fatally shot at close range during a protest there three years ago.” Will, an independent journalist, was killed in Oaxaca in 2006 and his death remains under investigation. And the LAT has a piece by Denise Dresser which argues President Obama must more forcefully demand an end to civil rights abuses in Mexico’s war on drugs. The U.S. president travels to Guadalajara this week for a North American Leaders Summit, and Dresser says “before Obama becomes too effusive and pats Calderon on the back for a job well done, it's important that the U.S. president remember the cost and the consequences of his counterpart's crusade.

From Haiti, the AP reports on new clashes between protestors and UN forces in that country on security detail. This time gunshots in rural Haiti’s central plateau injured at least three people. Some radio reports say at least two were killed in the clashes although the AP could not verify such reports. The protest began as a demonstration against a two-month electrical outage in a Haitian town near the border with the DR, but protests on Thursday began to be directed at Nepalese peacekeepers that are stationed in the area.

Finally this morning, a Venezuelan court upheld seven criminal charges against Lina Ron, a pro-Chavez activist accused of leading a violent raid on the headquarters of embattled media company Globovision earlier in the week. The charges included assault and illegal use of a firearm, and Ron will remain in police custody until her trial date. Chavez has recognized Ron as a political ally of his government but also condemned her actions. Last year she was also involved in a raid on the Vatican’s diplomatic offices in Venezuela’s capital city.

NOTE: I will be out of town on vacation for the next two weeks. But I thank folks from WOLA and my OSI colleague David Holiday for picking up the slack while I am gone! They’ll keep the daily briefs coming and I’ll be back on the job on August 24. Until then!

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