Tragedy in Haiti: From Thousands, to Tens of Thousands, to Possibly Hundreds of Thousands

The reports coming out of Haiti this morning are looking ever-grimmer less than 48 hours after Tuesday afternoon’s devastating earthquake and aftershocks. In the last 24 hours, headlines have updated casualty figures—still impossible to estimate with any precision but rising nonetheless—from“thousands” to “tens of thousands” and now, early this morning, some are even saying “hundreds of thousands” could have perished. One Haitian Senator who survived said 500,000 would be his guess, if forced to make one, while Haitian Prime Minister, Jean-Max Bellerive spoke with both CNN and Reuters and used “more than 100,000” as his estimated figure. Nearly all are using the figure of 3 million (1/3 the country’s total population) to describe the number of people affected by the country’s largest quake in two centuries. For a bit of perspective, the Asian tsunami of December 2004 took about 230,000 lives.

“I don't think that's an exaggeration,” Alice Blanchet, a special adviser to the Haitian prime minister who lives in Brooklyn, tells the Wall Street Journal today. She adds that she has not talked to a single friend or family in the country who did not lose their home in the quake’s wake. This includes Haiti’s President, René Preval. No word yet where he is staying amidst the destruction. Others at the UN’s Mission were not so lucky. The head of the mission, Hedi Annabi, is very likely to have died, along with his chief deputy, Luis Carlos da Costa, when the hotel in which the UN is stationed collapsed. Somewhere between 100 and 150 others—numerous Brazilians and Jordanians among them—are expected to have perished with the UN’s Haitian leadership, in what may be the single largest loss of UN staff life ever. Most are unwilling to even venture how many Haitians living in the country’s many impoverished shantytowns have died as journalists have struggled to make it through debris to report from those areas.

Among those who escaped, the UN peacekeepers from Paraguay who left the country just one day before the quake rocked Haiti.

Matthew Marek, country director for the American Red Cross in Haiti called the four hurricanes that destroyed significant parts of the country in 2008 “child’s play” compared to what is being seen on the streets in and around Port-au-Prince this week. Karel Zelenka of Catholic Relief Services called the quake “the disaster of the century” in an email to colleagues on Wednesday. Such conditions have made the arrival of relief workers slow and difficult. At 4:30am this morning, Reuters reported that “There were no signs of organized operations to rescue those trapped in debris or remove bodies and doctors in Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, were ill-equipped to treat the injured.” Relief is “trickling” in says the New York Times. Many are said to be simply crying on the streets, literally praying for some sort of help. One of the country’s most prominent spiritual leaders, Archbishop Joseph Sirge Mirot, is reported among the dead.

By the AP’s 6:41am filing today, an Air China plane carrying a Chinese search-and-rescue team, medics, food and medicine had just landed at the Port-au-Prince airport, along with three French planes with aid and a mobile hospital. The airport still has no power, however, and reports say it is without its destroyed air control tower. Aid planes are able to land on its runway nevertheless. A British relief team arrived at the same time in neighboring Dominican Republic.

Among aid groups already in the country, the AP also reports the following:

--“The aid group Doctors Without Borders treated wounded at two hospitals that withstood the quake and set up tent clinics elsewhere to replace its damaged facilities.

--“Cuba, which already had hundreds of doctors in Haiti, treated the injured in field hospitals.”

--“President Barack Obama promised an all-out rescue and humanitarian effort including the military and civilian emergency teams from across the U.S. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson was expected to arrive off the coast Thursday and the Navy said the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan had been ordered to sail as soon as possible with a 2,000-member Marine unit.” Also, a hospital ship is being dispatched but its arrival could be delayed by some days, reports indicate.

--The United States also has put a hold on the deportation of undocumented Haitians from the U.S.

--More on the U.S. efforts at Just the Facts.

--Uruguayans, who make up a significant portion of the MINUSTAH force in Haiti already are aiding in the search and rescue process.

--More from TeleSur on the pledges made by various other Latin American countries to Haiti.

Among pledges being made by international groups and agencies:

--EU has pledged $4.3 million thus far

--the World Bank has pledged initial emergency aid funds of $100 million

--via Facebook, Twitter, and text messaging (text “Haiti” to 90999 to make a $10 donation to the Red Cross) small donations have rolled in totaling nearly half a million already.

For constant updates throughout the day, I recommend the Washington Post and New York Times live blogs which have kept a steady stream of reports coming in.

With opinions on relief, former President Bill Clinton, now UN special envoy to Haiti, writes in the Washington Post, calling for all to donate to the relief effort. Tracy Kidder, author of “Mountains Beyond Mountains” writes in the New York Times, highlighting the work of Partners In Health in the country—an organization that now may be the largest provider of healthcare in Haiti. A Times editorial calls for a “commitment of years” to the country. The Miami Herald says the US must finally grant Temporary Protected Status to Haitians so they can work and live in the U.S. without hiding from immigration officials. Paul Collier and Jean-Louis Warnholz, in Canada’s Globe and Mail, call for a mass infusion of coordinated aid, a “Marshall Plan” for Haiti. And Foreign Policy recommends the remaining portion of the country’s debt be relieved.

A quick note on a few other stories and analysis being watched this morning, outside Haiti:

· Costa Rican President Oscar Arias plans to boycott Pepe Lobo’s inauguration.

· Lula seems to have found a compromise between his human rights secretary and defense secretary over the proposed national human rights plan.

· Christopher Sabatini and Jason Marczak offer opinion on Obama’s Latin America policy in Foreign Affairs. Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations does the same in a CFR exclusive interview.

· Brazil will propose the creation of a Peace and Security Council for UNASUR.

· And in the America’s Society’s weekly round-up, a quick review of the new Freedom House report for the Latin America region. The results are mixed.