Monday, October 25, 2010

Order/Disorder, Latin America, and a Multipolar World

During one of the final stopovers of his international travels last week, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez stood with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, both men reiterating that their “strategic alliance” – consisting principally of a series of trade, energy, and technology agreements – was part of a “new global order” that could displace Western hegemony. Upon his arrival back in Venezuela this weekend, the Venezuelan president reaffirmed that claim saying the Bolivarian Republic played a “fundamental role in the new multipolar world.” Out of the 11-day, 7-country trip (which included visits to Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Iran, Syria, Libya, Portugal) came 69 new bi-lateral agreements – accords which Chavez said centered around providing “homes for the people of Venezuela and markets for [Venezuelan] products” as well as “breaking” his country’s “mono-production” oil economy.

But what of Mr. Chavez’s choice of allies in his multi-polar project? Chris Arsenault at Al-Jazeera examines that question in an interesting piece this weekend, suggesting that Chavez’s internationalism is far from winning over support at home. Journalist Nikolas Kozloff, author of Hugo Chavez: Oil, Politics and the Challenges to the United States, tells Al-Jazeera that “in his efforts to create a multi-polar world, [Chavez] has created a foreign policy contradiction.” For example, his relationship with Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko, Kozloff contends, has meant “coming out in favour of a repressive government that doesn’t have much in common with the leftist changes happening in Latin America.” Further, says Kozloff, “the Chavez faithful, in not raising their voice on these foreign policy issues, is ceding ground to the Venezuelan opposition.”

In addition, Al-Jazeera suggests that extra-regional alliances may be overshadowing what it sees as a more popular item on the Venezuela agenda – that of Latin American integration.

Also this weekend, other signs of changing geopolitical times, many with Latin American implications. In meetings in South Korea, the IMF agreed to significant reforms – what the Fund’s managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn says amounts to “the biggest reform ever in the governance of the institution.” The restructuring tilts the balance of power at the IMF away from advanced industrial countries, particularly Western Europe nations, and toward the developing world, most notably the BRICs. The US, however, has retained its effective veto within the Fund, still controlling slightly more than 16% of total votes (major decisions at the Fund require 85% support].

Meanwhile, as grain prices reach record highs, Bloomberg reports on the possible creation of a Southern Cone grain alliance. As the report suggests the deal between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay (also potentially Chile and Uruguay) could be a translate into significant political power for the sub-region, particularly vis a vis China. More from Boz who sees the seeds of an agricultural OPEC.

From Mercopress (by way of O Estado de Sao Paulo), a report on Brazilian defense minister Nelson Jobim’s recent rejection of the idea that US-led NATO forces be allowed to operate in the South Atlantic. “The South Atlantic has security questions which are very different from those in the North Atlantic,” Jobim told his US counterparts during recent security talks in Washington.

And in Bolivia, Evo Morales said this weekend his country is prepared to move forward with the manufacturing of lithium batteries. Although still in search of an appropriate foreign partner, the Bolivian lithium experiment is being watched closely as a novel one in green industrialization – transforming an extractive resource into a value-added good in that product’s country of origin and through North-to-South technology transfers.

To other stories:

· The New York Times and the AP have coverage of the cholera outbreak in Haiti. The Times says Port-au-Prince is now bracing for the effects of the cholera epidemic – the first in the country in a century. The disease has killed 250 already, with more than 3100 confirmed cases reported. The Times says “the government reported optimistically on Sunday that the epidemic might be stabilizing,” with fatalities having declined from 10.6 percent of known cases three days earlier to 8.2 percent now. Health officials, however, warn against being too optimistic too early.

· In Mexico, 14 were killed in a weekend massacre at a young boy’s birthday party in Juarez. Children were among those killed, with the New York Times reporting that the Friday night murders, like the January massacre of teenagers at another Juarez party, “seemed to cross a line.” The paper notes that this time President Felipe Calderón’s response was “markedly different from his offhand comment after the January deaths, when he said that the killings then appeared to be the work of rival gangs settling scores.” More from El Diario de Juarez.

· Meanwhile, in other Mexico-related stories: news that the US may be increasing its cooperation with, if not direct presence in, Mexico by sending in “intelligence advisers” to Juarez. Milenio breaks the story, the US embassy in Mexico has new information on its site about Merida-related cooperation and a bi-national pilot program that includes increased intelligence coordination. Narco News continues the story, examining cooperation between US Northcom, created in 2002, and the Mexican armed forces. And this weekend, the El Paso Times says the slayings of three individuals connected to the US consulate in Juarez earlier in the year prompted the new intelligence “pilot program” – although the report does not say whether or not new US agents are actually crossing the US border into Mexico.

· Also in Chihuahua, reports on new measures which have been approved in an attempt to protect journalists. According to the Knight Center, legislation passed by the Chihuahua state legislature will allow those who have been convicted of murdering on-duty police officers and journalists (as well as those convicted of kidnapping, mass murder, and extortion) to be handed life sentences.

· And from the LA Times, a profile of the man behind Mexico’s militarized fight against drug cartels: former FMLN guerrilla leader-turned-Calderon security adviser, Salvadoran Joaquin Villalobos.

· On Prop. 19, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos again stated his concerns about the measure this weekend. But in somewhat cryptic fashion, Santos suggested that should the initiative pass, there must be a global discussion about changing international drug policies. “This is something that one country cannot do by itself,” Santos says. “Countries must do it together -- above all if the referendum passes, we’ll almost be obligated to reintroduce this [discussion].” Andres Oppenheimer also comments on Prop. 19 and its potential Lat Am effect, hinting at his support for marijuana legalization. A USC/Los Angeles Times Poll released last week showed 51 percent of likely voters voting against Proposition 19. Thirty-nine percent of likely voters said they support the measure.

· Semana with more on the potential evolution of US-Colombia relations as a high level US delegation, led by Undersecretary of State James Steinberg, begins meetings in Bogotá today.

· Benjamin Dangl at Upside Down World has excellent analysis of the relationship between Ecuador’s indigenous social movements and the Correa government. Meanwhile, Al-Jazeera reports that President Correa is rejecting calls from the opposition to grant amnesty to those implicated in last month’s police uprising-turned-attempted coup.

· From Honduras, Thelma Mejía, for IPS, reports on US Asst Sec. of State David Johnson’s visit to the country last week, as well as questions about whether the country could become a “narco state.” Mejía writes that “on Wednesday, a group of 30 members of the U.S. Congress wrote U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to call for the suspension of aid to Honduras, especially military and police assistance, because killings of political activists, journalists and others continue, in impunity.” But, Mejía writes, “Johnson arrived… with an offer of greater cooperation, to help dismantle criminal organisations operating in Honduras.” More on the letter to the State Dept., and DOS’s response, from Alex Main at CEPR.

· A report and an opinion on Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli. Time on the conservative leader’s authoritarian streak. And Mary Anastasia O’Grady, in her Monday Wall Street Journal column, on Martinelli’s state spending. Also, news from EFE that Martinelli will move ahead with his plans to pull Panama out of the Central American Parliament (Parlacen) in late November.

· And finally, on the next round of international climate change talks, set to begin November 29 in Cancun, Bolivia’s UN ambassador and climate change negotiator, Pablo Solon spoke at the Inter-American Dialogue last week. Audio here. Avi Lewis, for Al-Jazeera’s Fault Lines, also has a recent video report on Bolivia’s role in the new debate over climate debt.

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