More Cuban Dissident Releases

The Cuban government released three more prominent dissidents this weekend. As the Miami Herald reports, Hector Maseda and Angel Moya – part of the “Group of 75” who were arrested during the 2003 “Black Spring” crackdown – were both freed Saturday. Another "Group of 75" dissident, Eduardo Diaz Fleitas, was released one day prior, according to Archdiocese of Havana.

Four other prisoners, not regarded as belonging to any Cuban opposition group, were also freed.

Drawing the most headlines from these latest prisoner releases is the fact that Maseda and Moya appear to have been liberated “against their will.” Both men had said they wished to remain in prison until other opposition leaders were also granted freedom. But in the end, “jail officials simply tossed the men out, saying they could no longer stay behind bars, even if they wanted to,” to quote from the Herald’s reporting. Talking to journalists after arriving back at his home in Havana, Maseda still seemed dissatisfied. “I have left prison against my will,” he maintained.

Both men are married to prominent dissidents – Maseda to Laura Pollan and Moya to Bertha Soler, both leaders of the “Ladies in White” movement.

Of perhaps more significance than the fact that Maseda, Moya, and Diaz Fleitas may be out of prison against their will is the fact that all three will be allowed to stay in Cuba. Indeed, CNN, which spoke with Angel Moya over the weekend, says this weekend’s releases are “a sign that the government will continue the releases even if the dissidents refuse to leave the island.” The first such dissident to be released and allowed to stay in Cuba since July was Arnaldo Reyes, who was freed last November.

This weekend’s releases also come amidst another major – although still unexplained – event last week: the Cuban government’s decision to unblock island access to the blogs of several dissidents over one week ago. David Sasaki has some useful analysis and commentary about both developments, particularly in the wake of last week’s historic events in Egypt, and the projections toward Latin America which have followed. His post is worth reading in-full, but the following quote captures one particularly important point to consider as Cuba continues to move through a period of change:

“The more the US government tries to support bloggers like Yoani Sánchez the more ineffective she and her network will become as dissidents. So what should American pro-democracy activists do? Tell your representative to put an end to the US embargo on Cuba. Encourage scientific and academic collaboration between Cuban and American researchers. Engage in respectful dialog with Cuban bloggers from all sides of the political spectrum. Read up on America’s embarrassing history of relations with Cuba and its “aburd and self-defeating Cuba policy,” in the words of Jeffrey Goldberg.”

The new chairman of the House Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Affairs, Connie Mack (R-FL) probably did not read those suggestions. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) this weekend, Mack laid out the centerpiece of his Latin America policy: a “full-scale economic embargo” on Venezuela.

To other stories:

· The AP reports that a fourth FARC hostage was successfully released Sunday in Colombia. The release of two others appears to have been delayed. Responding to the latter event, the government’s delegate for the releases, Eduardo Pizarro said the FARC had “committed a scandalous act” by not bringing Maj. Guillermo Solorzano and Army Cpl. 1st Class Salin Antonio San Miguel Valderrana to the agreed-upon release location on Sunday. Ex-Senator Piedad Cordoba, the principal mediator of the exchanges, was less vocal, writing on Twitter that she was “certain we will soon see them freed.”

· For his part, President Juan Manuel Santos seemed increasingly frustrated as well about this latest round of liberations, criticizing the “media show” that had developed around this week’s releases. Speaking to Semana (and quoted by the AP), Santos again also contended that peace talks should not be expected anytime soon. “No one in this government is authorized to make any contact of any kind with the FARC,” he tells the magazine. Santos has two long interviews in the Financial Times and Spain’s El País this weekend as well, both of which are worth reading.

· The FT interview begins with discussion of a Chinese proposal to build a new city south of Cartagena that, in FT’s words, would serve as a base for assembling and exporting goods throughout the Americas. Santos tells the paper that the plan is quite serious and is among various Chinese proposals his country is currently entertaining. Santos:

“This one is quite advanced, to create a whole city south of Cartagena in the Caribbean, as a hub for production and assembly to export to the rest of South America and Central America and even to the United States. There’s a proposal to build whole railway system that would even connect Venezuela with the Pacific.”

The Guardian has more today in the project, highlighting how a Chinese rail system would rival the Panama Canal. Read together with new statements from Juan Manuel Santos that he will pursue new economic partnerships more vigorously should the US not pass an FTA with Colombia this year, the Chinese deal could be a preview of things to come. Or, as The Guardian suggests, frank discussion of the Chinese proposals may be Santos’s way of leveraging the US into action on the US-Colombia FTA.

· Other interesting comments from Semana’s discussion with Santos include new talk about drug legalization – an idea Santos (again) says he would consider supporting if it meant reducing crime and violence. With El País the issue of “social justice” in Colombia is the focus. Meanwhile, Michael Shifter, in an interview with World Politics Review, discusses Colombia’s bid to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

· In El Salvador, news from Prensa Grafica last week that the US may include El Salvador in its “Partnership to Grow” program – a still undefined “global” plan for US-backed economic development that focuses efforts in just a handful of countries – among them the Philippines, Ghana, and El Salvador. Also, from Central American Politics, reports that Guatemala’s Alvaro Colom will not be invited by the US to join Mauricio Funes and Barack Obama in San Salvador when the latter visits the region in March – that despite earlier statements from Colom saying he would attend.

· A bloody weekend in Mexico was highlighted by a major attack on a Guadalajara night club, confirming fears that the city is now engulfed in its own struggle with drug-related violence. The AP says at least six were killed and some 37 were injured when gunmen opened fire and launched grenades into the crowded venue early Saturday morning. A deadly shootout earlier in the night, in the city of Monterrey, left at least eight dead. AFP reports over 30 were killed around the country over the weekend in “drug-related violence,” probably more if the 18 killed in Juarez between Thursday and Friday morning are taken into account.

· Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal is the latest to profile Acapulco and its growing struggle with drug violence. It’s also the latest such report to write the following: “Acapulco's agony helps explain a paradox of the Mexican drug war: The government's growing success in capturing or killing top cartel leaders is fueling more violence rather than less.” The other side of the drug wars coin comes from BBC Mundo, which looks at Mexico’s shortage of forensic units needed to carry out successful murder investigations.

· In Haiti, the Miami Herald says there has been a great deal of movement at Jean-Bertrand Aristide’s old home in the Haitian capital this week, including the planting of flowers and trimming of an overgrown front lawn. The Herald uses a 2004 Wikileaked cable to argue Brazil – who leads the UN MINUSTAH peacekeeping forces in Haiti – may be less than thrilled about a possible Aristide return. (The Miami Herald’s editorial board echoes similar concerns). However, I would be curious to know if/how that position has evolved since seven years ago. In any case, it does seem Brazil is supporting a March runoff vote: EFE says the government has just donated $330,000 dollars to the UNDP for those elections.

· On more distant elections, Southern Pulse looks at the 3-way race in Peru, ahead of an April presidential vote. And new IVAD poll numbers in Venezuela (from El Universal) on Hugo Chavez look at a still more distant 2012 presidential election. According to the numbers, Chavez still defeats the opposition in three hypothetical presidential races: Chávez: 46,3% vs. Leopoldo López: 39,9%; Chávez: 46,4% vs. Pablo Pérez: 37,4%; Chávez 45,3% vs. Henrique Capriles Radonsky: 41,9%. At this very early state, the latter candidate seems to be the early opposition favorite.

· With opinions, Anthony Maingot, co-editor of a new book on the foreign policy of Hugo Chavez, offers a critical view of the Venezuelan president’s petro-diplomacy, in the Miami Herald last week. In El País, Joaquín Villalobos, one of the minds behind Felipe Calderon’s prosecution of the drug wars in Mexico, seems to suggest that “utopian” ideas about drug legalization – while perhaps desirable – be placed on the backburner to focus instead on how to reduce the power of criminal groups by strengthening institutions and combating “social complicity” with criminal activities. Little discussed by Villalobos: how Mexican policies may have in part contributed to the “transnationalization” of organized crime. And a very useful view from Greg Grandin, at The Nation about the long-term meaning of a possible Central American “security corridor.” As South America “pulls out of the US orbit” – a development which has been, in Grandin’s words, a “world historical event as consequential as the fall of the Berlin Wall, though less noticed since it has taken place over a decade rather than all on one night” – Grandin argues Mesoamerica, from Mexico through Central America and into Colombia, now finds itself as the location where a “blueprint of how to build a perfect machine of perpetual war” is being sketched.