Peruvian presidential contenders Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori have begun the task of pact-making, courting the support of both their now former rivals and, according to the BBC, the elusive Peruvian “moderate.” For Humala that apparently means talking more about Brazil. Interviewed on Peruvian radio yesterday, Humala says he “recognizes there is a successful process underway in Brazil” – one which has combined economic growth, social inclusion and a “macroeconomic equilibrium.”
Humala apparently doesn’t have to look far for Brazil talking points. Spain’s El País reports this morning that Humala has, since January, been counseled on campaign strategy by two Brazilian PT strategists, Luis Favre and Valdemir Garreta. Both men ran Lula’s 2002 campaign in 2002, successfully softening the image of the longtime trade union leader. In fact, Jacqueline Fowks of IDL-Reporteros has noted that Humala’s “Carta Compromiso con el Pueblo Peruano,” presented to assuage the worries of Peru’s business elites, is “identical” to Lula’s “Carta ao Povo Brasileiro” used to accomplish the same goal in Brazil back in 2002.
Like Lula before him, Humala has also sought to bring into his inner circle a number of so-called moderates. El País highlights Harvard-trained lawyer Beatriz Merino, considered by some to be the frontrunner for prime minister in a future Humala government. Merino held that same position under Alejandro Toledo and has more recently acted as Peru’s omsbudman under Alan García.
Connecting the political dots and there appears Mario Vargas Llosa – an apparently close friend of Merino. Interestingly, Vargas Lllosa seems to be walking back his provocative talk last week of cancer versus AIDS, a reference to a then hypothetical runoff between Humala and Fujmori. Speaking in Chile Tuesday, Vargas Llosa, a supporter of Alejandro Toledo in round-one, suggested he could actually vote for Ollanta Humala. Calling the presidency of Alberto Fujimori “one of the most atrocious dictatorships we have ever read,” MVL ruled out the possibility of ever voting for the incarcerated ex-president’s daughter, but says, should Humala succeed in making some Lula-like alliances, he could be brought on board.
Voting is obligatory in Peru for those between the ages of 18 and 70. MVL just turned 75 so, in theory, he wouldn’t be forced to vote for anyone.
La República has a longer report today on the possibility of a Toledo-Humala pact. Again, much of the internal debate within Toledo’s Peru Posible party seems to be about whether or not Humala is capable of shoring up the sort of coalition Lula put together under the PT in Brazil.
Humala also met with former Lima mayor Luis Castaneda yesterday evening, although a pact there – at least at the moment – seems a bit more distant. A similar story with Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.
Thus far, the only new movement I’ve seen in favor of Keiko Fujimori are some unconfirmed statements about investors and members of country’s economic upper crust siding with Keiko Fujimori -- that and the views of some in the rabidly anti-chavista blogosphere (here and here). It’s far too early to say anything with certainty, but the next month and a half should prove to be interesting.
Today’s bullet points:
· After twelve hours of intense debate Tuesday, Uruguay’s Senate, in a 16-15 vote, passed legislation that would overturn that country’s 1986 “Ley de Caducidad” which has provided a form of amnesty to numerous human rights violators from the country’s twelve year dictatorship (1973-1985). The bill will now go to the house where it is expected to be approved with only minor changes. But Tuesday’s passage did not come without its share of contestation. After voters rejected overturning the law twice in the last two decades (most recently in 2009), the governing Frente Amplio coalition’s decision to push for annulment has created some notable fault lines within the coalition itself – the most visible being the unexpected resignation yesterday of longtime FA Senator Eleuterio Fernández Huidobro from the upper chamber. Huidobro, one of the most recognizable leaders of the Tupamaro guerrilla movement during the 1960s and early 1970s, voted with his party, but said he would express his disapproval of the party’s decision reverse the popular will by giving up his Senate seat.
· Speaking on Spanish television during his visit to Madrid this week, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said neighboring Venezuela is no longer harboring FARC rebels. He added that the government of Hugo Chavez has delivered on its promise to prevent the guerrilla group from crossing back and forth across the Colombia-Venezuela border. BBC reports on the new statements, adding that, President Alvaro Uribe used Twitter to subtly disagree with the statements made by Mr. Santos Tuesday. More from Semana.
· Also on Venezuela and Colombia, Colombian ambassador to the US, Gabriel Silva responds to Jackson Diehl’s recent column on the Walid Makled case, in a letter to the editor at the Washington Post.
· The Wall Street Journal highlights the various commercial accords signed between China and Brazil Tuesday. Perhaps the most notable agreement: a $1.5 billion deal that will send Brazilian Embraer aircrafts to China. After worries that Brazil’s exports to China were commodity-heavy, the new deal Tuesday is pretty significant breakthrough. It also includes plans to build a China-Brazil joint venture facility in China for the production of Embraer jets. On the issue of Brazil’s bid for a seat on the UN Security Council, the Chinese position is a bit difficult to read. Via Brazil’s Estadao: a joint communiqué released Tuesday reads China “understands and supports Brazil’s aspiration to play a more prominent role in the UN.” According to the paper the Chinese government has, in past occasions, voiced more support for Brazil’s bid for a permanent UNSC seat and the unclear language here may be attributable to China-Japan relations. More on arrival of fellow BRICS – Russia, India, and now South Africa – to this week’s China meetings, at the Wall Street Journal
· Mercopress says recent OECD addition, Chile, has some of the worst social indicators among the world’s so-called “rich nations.” Most notably, Chile continues to struggle with high income inequality – the highest, in fact, of all 34 OECD countries.
· In Mexico, 32 more bodies were discovered in the mass graves of Tamaulipas yesterday, bringing the total up to 120, according to Mexico’s El Universal. Forensic experts say that number could continue to rise. Meanwhile, the Mexican government, in its first statements about who the perpetrators of the massacre might have been, has pointed the finger at the Zetas. Apparently 17 individuals have been detained already in connection to the killings.
· CS Monitor reports on recent statements by top US military officials who now say the so-called “Northern Triangle” of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador is “the deadliest zone in the world outside of active war zones.”
· McClatchy reports on the new 2010 State Department human rights report on Honduras, which, among other things, highlights rising reports of hate crimes targeting the LGBT community – and the impunity with which such crimes have been met. McClatchy: “Homicides roiling the gay, lesbian and transgender community have earned Honduras comparisons to Uganda, the African nation that recently debated a proposed law that would make homosexuality subject to the death penalty in some instances.”
· The LA Times and Bloomberg report on the collapse of the short-lived PAN-PRD alliance, at least in Mexico state.
· Officials from Costa Rica and Nicaragua were able to put an on-going border dispute aside, meeting yesterday to discuss the possibility of new counternarcotics and security cooperation. No breakthroughs, apparently, although the two countries agreed to hold another set of meetings about such matters in early May. La Nación reports.
· The AP says a government panel is looking into the possibility of decriminalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana in Jamaica.
· And finally, from the Washington Post over the weekend, a great report about the return of anti-communism on Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s House Foreign Affairs Committee. There are a lot of great quotes, but of interest to Latin Americanists may be this one from an individual the paper identifies as “a former staffer who like other aides interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid reprisals.” About the congresswoman’s Cuba policy, he/she says: “A government that has said one nice thing about the Cuba regime, they are [seen as] an enemy. There’s no nuance, no subtlety. None.”
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