“Is Latin America gearing up for conflict?” In a day of little news, the BBC has a very interesting piece up this morning which takes up this question, examining the “coincidental announcement of two major procurement programmes” by two of the continent’s most powerful countries. First it was Brazil who announced the purchase of new attack submarines and helicopters from France, while also opening up talks for new fighter jets, last week. The justification, says the Brazilian government, was the fact that its arsenal was seriously outdated. But, in addition, writes the BBC, the country also has its eyes set on becoming a global power and building its military capacity may be part of that project. Then came the announcement that Venezuela too was upgrading its arsenal through new purchases of tanks and air defense systems from Russia—troubling to many given the country’s ongoing war of words with neighboring Colombia. Could this lead to conflict? In theory, yes, says the BBC, but in practice, it seems unlikely. “The risk of war breaking out is still negligible, given the likelihood of massive dissuasive pressure from both the US and Brazil,” the BBC concludes. Moreover, elsewhere in the continent, “the appetite for confrontation is non-existent.” But nevertheless, “the seeds are quietly being sown for the increased militarisation of a region that arguably should have its budgetary priorities elsewhere,” the analysis concludes. (Also see this piece for useful charts showing how military spending has increased as % of GDP over the last year).
The question of military spending increases coincides with another somewhat disconcerting news item being reported this morning. The AP writes that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez may now want to also join the nuclear club. “I say it before the world: Venezuela is going to start the process of developing nuclear energy, but we're not going to make an atomic bomb, so don't be bothering us afterward ... (with) something like what they have against Iran,” Chavez declared. Russia has announced the two countries have formed an atomic energy commission to speed along the process, although the project remains largely in the planning stages. Nevertheless, the State Dept. again said these developments raised great concerns.
The Wall Street Journal reports a major drug bust involving at least 23 individuals, including nine employed by American Airlines. The drug ring was allegedly involved in shipping cocaine to the U.S. via Puerto Rico, recruiting AA ground crew members to help smuggle more than 9,000 kilos of cocaine on flights since 1999.
From Mexico, two stories on drugs and violence. First, the LA Times writes that the border city of Mexicali has become a very calm one over recent months with a homicide rate equal to that of Wichita, Kansas. But is tranquility merely a mirage, the paper asks? Indeed, the country has also become “the major staging ground for drug trafficking into the U.S” leading many law enforcement to believe that the cost of peace is “a cozy relationship between Mexican law enforcement and the country's most powerful organized crime group, the Sinaloa drug cartel, which is believed to have shifted trafficking through the city to avoid gang battles in other border areas.” Meanwhile, other border towns did not appear nearly so tranquil this week as at least 21 were killed in attacks in Tijuana, Juarez, and a Guatemalan border town on Mexico’s Southern border.
And finally this morning, a recap of the day’s developments in Honduras. The AP leads off coverage saying Honduras’s independence day was marked by separate commemorations, led by allies and foes of the de facto regime. Per usual, “Thousands of protesters marched through Tegucigalpa to demand Zelaya's return, while at a military and police parade, the interim president vowed only an armed invasion of Honduras could bring the ousted leader back,” the wire service reports. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton addressed the situation, saying “I remain hopeful that the spirit of Francisco Morazan, a founder and visionary leader of Honduras, will help return your nation to a democratic path that will unite and inspire, rather than divide and discourage.” The de facto government, meanwhile, said the revoking of visas by the United States has affected the Honduran business community. On Saturday, the head of the Asociación Nacional de Industriales (ANDI), Adolfo Facussé, for example, was prohibiting from going to Miami. And in Europe, Spanish news agency EFE says the Spanish government will be taking steps to prohibit the entry of pro-coup government officials as well. Without naming names, the Spanish foreign minister said the new measures would affect those who “continue blocking” the return of constitutional order and of President Mel Zelaya.
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