Thursday, September 24, 2009

Reports of Repression Rise in Tegucigalpa. And a Break in Curfew

Another day has passed and still no talks between Manuel Zelaya and Roberto Micheletti, reports the New York Times this morning. “We need to sit down face to face,” Zelaya tells the Times in a phone interview from the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa on Wednesday. But, the paper reports, Mr. Zelaya continues to use intermediaries to bring about just such a meeting with the de facto leadership. For his part, Mr. Micheletti is also trying portray himself as the one who is prepared to negotiate, albeit less successfully. His foreign minister Carlos Lopez Contreras read a statement produced by the Micheletti regime saying talks could be held between the two parties but that would not nullify the arrest warrant issued against Mr. Zelaya by the Honduran Supreme Court. “I think that what the whole world should understand about this country is that there is no immunity for anyone -- for anyone,” Micheletti told CNN en Español. “And, no one can be above the law.” In short, let’s talk, says Micheletti, but you, Mr. Zelaya, will have to be on the other side of jail bars first. Meanwhile, on the streets of Tegucigalpa, curfew was suspended for six hours on Wednesday, allowing many Hondurans to leave their homes legally to gather food and necessary supplies. The AP also reports that the de facto regime will lift curfew, apparently indefinitely, beginning Thursday morning. Even through curfew, however, thousands of Zelaya supporters have remained vigilant in front of the Brazilian embassy for nearly three days now. In an interview with the Miami Herald Zelaya claimed he was being “threatened with death” by “Israeli mercenaries” (strangely, essentially the same McClatchy report on this scratches the word “Israeli” in the description of supposed mercenaries). “I prefer to march on my feet than to live on my knees before a military dictatorship,” Zelaya declared, words that I believe can first be attributed to Emiliano Zapata. Outside the embassy, Amnesty International has condemned the aggressive tactics of the Honduran security forces to dislodge protests, including the firing of tear gas at the Brazilian embassy. The protests have, from all accounts I have read, remained relatively peaceful, and have spread to a number of neighborhoods throughout the city which are being covered less by major media outlets.

Also on Wednesday, the Honduran police announced that all meetings of more than 20 individuals were no longer to be tolerated in the capital. The LA Times confirms this morning the death of at least 1 Zelaya supporter and says “more than one hundred” have been detained. AFP confirms the death of at least two individuals, as reported by the Honduran national police. And Bloomberg says the Honduran economy has “come to a standstill” since Mr. Zelaya returned on Monday. “The curfew is costing the Central American nation’s economy $50 million a day,” Jesus Canahuati, vice president of the local chapter of the Business Council of Latin America tells the news service. The $14.1 billion economy, has lost as much as $200 million in investment since the military ousted Zelaya from office on June 28, Canahuati said. All of this has led to at least one candidate running in November elections, Porfirio Lobo, to demand that Micheletti dialogue with Zelaya. And in New York City for UN General Assembly meetings, Lula da Silva spoke forcefully yesterday, calling for the reinstatement of Zelaya immediately. “Unless there is political will, we will see more coups like the one that toppled the constitutional president of Honduras,” he told the GA. Sec. General Ban Ki Moon said the UN had ended technical assistance for upcoming Honduran elections. And Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez is scheduled to speak today.

In opinions around the major papers this morning, the Miami Herald’s Andres Oppenheimer is the only one who weighs in on Honduras. He argues that the “fate” of the crisis will depend on riots and deaths. As an unnamed Latin American diplomat tells him, “if there are big riots and deaths, the United States and Latin American countries will be more likely to step up their pressure for Zelaya's return to office.” In three possible scenarios, Oppenheimer says 1. “chaos might be followed by intervention,” likely by the U.N.; 2. Short-lived chaos might be followed by elections in November; or 3. Some form of a unity government could be formed through negotiation. “Either way, as often happens, this crisis is likely to fade away from the headlines soon,” argues Oppenheimer. “Neither Zelaya nor Micheletti are deep-thinking statesmen, nor charismatic leaders. I would be surprised if many of us will remember their names a few years down the road -- let alone miss them.” Also, very interestingly, Boz has gotten a response from Washington Post editorial page editor, Fred Hiatt, about the Micheletti op-ed the paper ran on Tuesday. Hiatt tells Boz that the paper decided to run the piece before Zelaya’s return and stands by its decision to identify Micheletti as “president of Honduras.” “As to his title--generally (maybe not entirely consistently) we go with facts on the ground, rather than wishes. I believe Aung San Suu Kyi's party won the 1990 election in Burma and she is the rightful leader of her country, but I don't call her prime minister when I write about her.”

In other news this morning, the NYT also reports on a new survey that shows many Mexicans still have strong desires to move to the U.S., even amidst recession. “In spite of high unemployment in the United States and strict border enforcement, one-third of Mexicans say they would move to this country if they could, and more than half of those would move even if they did not have legal immigration documents, according to a survey published Wednesday by the Pew Research Center.” 57 percent said that those who leave home to settle here have better lives, while only 14 percent say life is worse in the United States.

In Venezuela, the head of the country’s cable television chamber says the government is preparing to impose new regulations on the media, particularly cable television. According to the AP, “the government outlined the new rules to the cable companies this week and said they will be published in the Official Gazette in about 15 days.” The rules will allegedly require that at least 70 percent of the content of cable channels be produced in Venezuela.

The Miami Herald has a disturbing story this morning on the violent business of human smuggling of Cubans through Mexico, both by Cuban American and Mexican groups.

And the Wall Street Journal reports that Chevron, currently the defendant in a multi-billion dollar lawsuit with the Ecuadorean government, has just filed a countersuit against that same government under international trade law.

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