Honduran Congress to Vote on Zelaya Restitution Today...Or Maybe Not?

The Honduran Congress will begin its debate about whether or not to reinstate the deposed Mel Zelaya today in Tegucigalpa. As the AP writes, it’s not clear that pressure from the international community on the matter will be enough to swing the vote in favor of Mr. Zelaya. Nor is it even clear whether or not the Congress will vote on Zelaya’s restitution today. On Tuesday, the head of Congress, Jose Alfredo Saavedra said there must be extensive debate of the opinion of the Supreme Court before any votes are cast. Thus, even more delays are possible.

While reports in recent days have focused on how several countries have recognized the Honduran elections (or have hinted that they will shortly), today’s AP report highlights the fact that many in the region are continuing to hold strong, opposing the legitimacy of Sunday’s vote. Speaking from the Ibero-American Summit in Portugal Tuesday, Brazilian President Lula da Silva partially clarified rumors that Brazil might slowly recognize the poll. “We can't pretend nothing happened. If this state of affairs is allowed to remain, democracy will be at serious risk in Latin and Central America.” RAJ at Honduras Coup 2009 also rejects recent reports hinting that Brazil might be willing to support the restoration of Zelaya in name only, just long enough to hand over the reins of government to Pepe Lobo. She writes: “the stated Brazilian position remains that voting this Sunday was conducted under conditions that make it impossible to recognize the results, and that the restoral of the constitutional government illegally overthrown June 28 is non-negotiable.”

For his part, Mel Zelaya released a statement Tuesday, directed at the international community. “I ask you not to recognize the electoral fraud and for your cooperation so that this coup d'etat does not remain unpunished,” he wrote.

Further this morning, there are still serious discrepancies between the TSE’s turnout numbers and those being reported by independent groups, particularly the National Democratic Institute (NDI) which released a full report on its assessment mission to Honduras yesterday. NDI, which teamed with Hagamos Democracia, a local partner of NDI in Honduras, stands by its data which shows voter turnout at just 48% Sunday. (Turnout was 55% in 2005 when Zelaya was elected). The NDI report says the election on Sunday did go off in a “peaceful and orderly” manner, but campaigning was complicated by curfews, the periodic closures of opposition-aligned media, and the arrest of Zelaya supporters. “In terms of the conduct of the election itself, I think there is a sense that it was a generally, with some exceptions, a peaceful and orderly process,” NDI President Ken Wollack tells the AP. On the issue of “abstention,” a Tiempo report on the differences between NDI numbers and those of the TSE says NDI has estimated abstention at 52.4% while the TSE says just 38.7% abstained Sunday. In-country reports note, TSE has yet to report any official numbers on the election of deputies and mayors but Honduran papers nonetheless are publishing the questionable TSE projections to show a National Party landslide across the country.

Other reports indicate that Canal 36 remains off the air still. And the Honduran Resistance has rejected the notion of beginning dialogue with Pepe Lobo. “We continue to reject any and all dialogue with the golpistas,” former presidential candidate, Carlos Reyes, said Tuesday.

And finally, with opinion and analysis this morning, the Wall Street Journal looks at the rising wave of resistance the U.S. now faces in Latin America after its Honduras about-face. “Brazil's emergence as the hemispheric powerhouse is turning into a challenge and -- in foreign-policy terms -- a disappointment for President Barack Obama, who, like George W. Bush, developed a close relationship with charismatic President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.” Moises Naím, editor at Foreign Policy, speaks with deep criticism of Brazil, telling the paper, “The world was hoping that [Brazil] would become a responsible global player and stakeholder, but instead Brazil is behaving like an immature developing country with a chip on its shoulder.”

But in Foreign Policy itself, Brookings Kevin Casas-Zamora writes critically of the Sunday vote: “The real problem [with Sunday’s vote] is that the apparent success of the election lets the orchestrators of the coup get away scot-free after casually kicking out an elected official. It is one thing to convince the international community to turn a blind eye to a crass deposition of a legitimate president; it is quite another to achieve that without paying any price whatsoever for it. The coup team has now accomplished both. And so the shortcomings of the Honduras's rotten political system have simply been crystallized.” Other losers, says Casas-Zamora are the OAS, Venezuela, and U.S. diplomacy in general. “Micheletti and Lobo are simply the last men standing on a barren landscape. Their victory is a hollow one. And make no mistake: It is no victory for democracy.”

In other news around the region today:

· Ahead of this weekend’s elections in Bolivia, recent polls show Evo Morales increasing his lead over his nearest rivals. The current president is now expected to win some 55% of the vote. Polls have traditionally underestimated Morales support in the countryside, hinting at possibly an even larger victory. The MAS is also close to winning a 2/3 super majority in the Congress, although current polls show the party still falling just short. For more on the issues at stake during Bolivian elections, see Jim Schulz at the Cochabamba-based Democracy Center.

· Polls in Mexico show declining popularity for President Felipe Calderon, according to an EFE report this morning. The drops reflect declining approval since last March. Boz has more on the numbers.

· And in the Miami Herald, a report on Haiti this morning writes on new PM Jean-Max Bellevire’s first visit to South Florida since assuming his new position. The PM emphasized new ways to facilitate investment in Haiti while speaking with business leaders in Miami.