The news on Honduras this morning, again by topic.
Turnout
The United States finds itself divided from many of its Latin American allies over the controversial Sunday vote in Honduras. So leads the Washington Post this morning after conservative businessman Pepe Lobo was elected to be Honduras’s next president by a wide margin over the weekend. The Post, which reported initial voter participation figures of just under 48% yesterday, also reports the following today on the much-sought after turnout figures this morning:
“The exact turnout in Sunday's vote was still not known, with the country's electoral tribunal saying official figures may not be available for weeks. The tribunal said that, based on projections from about half the ballot boxes, 62 percent of eligible voters participated. However, an independent Honduran civic alliance that did a statistical sampling nationwide said 47.6 percent of voters turned out, 7.4 percentage points less than in the last presidential election, in 2005. The civic group's effort was funded by the U.S. government and received technical assistance from the National Democratic Institute, which is loosely affiliated with the Democratic Party.”
For its part, the other major U.S.-funded organization in Honduras for the vote, the International Republican Institute, has said Sunday’s poll was “free of violence and overt acts of intimidation.”
At Honduras Coup 2009, RAJ and RNS continue analyzing turnout numbers. They initially reported TSE estimates at about 48% turnout yesterday, changed that reported figure to 60% later, but now say official numbers show that estimates are dropping as votes are actually tabulated.
Recognition
On the issue of recognizing Sunday’s elections, the U.S. (more below) has been joined by Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, and Peru, among Western Hemisphere countries in seeing the Sunday vote as legitimate. However, there is speculation that other countries, particularly Honduras’s Central American neighbors, could soon recognize the newly elected Pepe Lobo. The Post highlights this in its reporting this morning while also adding some telling words from Adolfo Facusse, coup regime backer and prominent business mogul: “We don't care about Brazil. We get to Miami in two hours; we get to Brazil in eight.”
El Salvador’s El Faro says the government of Maurico Funes will not recognize the newly elected government in Tegucigalpa, at least “for now,” writing that Mr. Funes did add that the elections are the beginning of a solution to the crisis. El Universal in Mexico reports the Mexican government is taking a similar line while Latin American nations meet with Spain and Portugal at the Ibero-American Summit. El País reports that Spain will not recognize the elections but said the results “would not be ignored either,” opening what the paper says is a “third way” to reject the validity of the vote under current conditions but opening a “mechanism for dialogue” to bring the crisis to an end. There are even some indications that Brazil may eventually support this “third way” solution. Lula’s top advisor, Marco Aurelio García said yesterday: “If Brazil considers that it has to change its position, it will change its position.” Garcia added that the Brazilian government would have to examine several elements, especially that of voter participation before changing its position. Lula also wants Mr. Lobo to speak with the OAS’s Jose Miguel Insulza, who, for his part, says he’s open for dialogue with Lobo to “construct democracy” in Honduras.
U.S. Statement
Speaking to the press Monday, new Ass’t. Sec. of State Arturo Valenzuela also said DOS was doing its best to coax Latin American nations into supporting a series of next steps, beyond the Sunday election:
“Let me say that I did speak to President Colom, for example, from Guatemala over the weekend. I also spoke to President Arias over the weekend. We’ve reached out to others. And the Secretary has also made quite a few calls to the region on – not only on the issue of Honduras, but also on some other issues that are of concern to us – on Peru – she reached out to Peru, to Uruguay, to Argentina, to Brazil, to the foreign ministers, and also spoke to President Funes in El Salvador.”
Underscoring what those next steps ought to be, from the United States perspective, Valenzuela said:
“A government of national unity needs to be formed. The congress has to take a vote on the return of President Zelaya to office. And another element of the San Jose Accords that I think would be very, very important as Honduras moves forward to try to reestablish the democratic and constitutional order is the formation and the structuring of a truth commission, which was also contemplated in the original Tegucigalpa framework and San Jose Accords. And the truth commission would be a body that would look into the incidents and the situation that led to the coup…”
Asked twice if the U.S. recognizes Sunday’s vote, Valenzuela ever-so-carefully chose his words:
“We take note of the results, yes. We recognize that there are results in Honduras for this election. That’s quite clear. We recognize those results, and we commend Mr. Lobo for having won these elections. And as I say, this is an important step to restore the democratic and constitutional order in Honduras.”
Somewhat interestingly, he was less careful with the words he used to describe the June 28 ouster of Mel Zelaya, catching himself calling the coup a “military coup” multiple times—words DOS has been careful to avoid since June 28.
Human Rights
For details on the San Pedro Sula demonstrations that were broken up with force on Sunday, the Quixote Center has a report here from one participant in Honduras. Here’s an excerpt:
“Tom Loudon was on the streets of San Pedro Sula when police tanks and water trucks and tear gas canisters attacked a peaceful march of the resistance movement. It took him a long time to find other members of his delegation who had scattered in the frenzy, but they were luckier than two observers from the Latin America Council of Churches who were detained or a Reuter’s photographer who was injured in the massive display of repression. Dozens of cells phones captured the police beating anyone they could catch with their billy clubs.”
CEJIL has released a statement condemning the violence and reporting the detainment of at least 48 individuals in San Pedro Sula on Sunday. Among those detained, says CEJIL, was the regional human rights group SERPAJ’s Latin American coordinator, the Costa Rican Gustavo Cabrera Vega. Cabrera Vega was photographing instances of police violence when he was arrested.
And CIP’s Laura Carlsen, also in Tegucigalpa for the vote, reports being harassed by a mob of “impartial election observers” who accused her of being a Venezuelan agent while she did an interview with Al-Jazeera TV on Sunday. She writes to the US Embassy the following:
“I am now concerned for my safety under a coup regime that has carried out massive human rights violations with impunity that I myself as a member of the international delegation on women´s human rights have documented in our delegation in August. My face has been broadcast over national television, accompanied by lies and distortions.
Opinions
The LA Times comes out strong against the United States’ “bungled” handling of the crisis in Honduras in an editorial this morning.
“To its credit, the administration joined Europe and the Organization of American States in condemning the June 28 coup, and initially tried working with Latin American allies to restore Honduran President Manuel Zelaya to office. When that failed, however, the administration negotiated a deal between the de facto government of Roberto Micheletti and Zelaya that lacked the teeth to ensure Zelaya's reinstatement ahead of Sunday's presidential election. Even worse, the U.S. seemed to give up its leverage by announcing that its recognition of the vote did not hinge on Zelaya's return. That put the U.S. at odds with the likes of Brazil, Argentina and Chile, which argued that a de facto government cannot hold a free election. It also gives Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez the opportunity to accuse the U.S. of paying lip service to democracy; in 2002, the George W. Bush administration supported a coup attempt against Chavez, and now Chavez will argue the Obama administration has allowed a coup to succeed in Honduras.”
The Miami Herald uses the unofficial turnout numbers of 60% to say the vote was credible:
“[I]t cannot be argued that the election was held under duress or that the outcome was manipulated. The interim government, which has the support of virtually all the major factions of Honduran society, including the major political parties, can now claim that it presided over a fair and credible election.”
And the head of the Ibero-American Summit, Enrique V. Iglesias speaks to Spain’s El País here, saying it cannot be denied that there is “more than one position” [on the Honduran crisis] throughout the Americas.
In other news this morning:
· The Economist and Washington Post both have recent pieces on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent Latin American tour, with a notable stop-over in Brazil.
· And the Wall Street Journal reports that the Venezuelan government has closed four banks owned by businessman Ricardo Fernandez—to this point an ally of President Hugo Chavez. The paper writes: “It is unclear why the government moved against him. Some analysts here believe Mr. Chávez wants to be seen as tough on corruption amid an economic downturn. Others suggest the arrest and bank closures represent a behind-the-scenes battle over this oil-rich state's lucrative spoils. On Sunday, Mr. Chávez suggested it was the former, taking to the airwaves to attack Mr. Fernandez and others who have profited from government connections. ‘There are people out there that say that they are revolutionary and are doing business. A true revolutionary is not going around doing business for profit,’ he said on his weekly television show.”
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