Calderon's Tightrope

The New York Times’ Marc Lacey reports this morning on Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s upcoming visit to the United States. On Wednesday Calderon is scheduled to address a joint session of the Congress in Washington where, the paper says, he faces a tough tightrope act. In the Times’ words: “How can [Calderon] discuss the violence in his country with enough urgency to secure more assistance from Washington but also reassure American lawmakers that Mexico is not spinning out of control?” According to the president’s aides, Mr. Calderon will acknowledge shortcomings in Mexico’s fight against drug traffickers while also noting the progress that has been made with respect to arrests, drug and gun seizures and extraditions to the United States – all of which have increased significantly under the president’s watch. But as a Newsweek piece by Michael Isikoff infers, rising gun seizure numbers come as illegal trafficking of high-powered U.S. weapons into Mexico continues “unimpeded” and, according to one law enforcement official, “may actually be increasing.”

So too is violence up – and that’s the trend with which most remain preoccupied, both in the US and Mexico. Speaking to Reuters last week, Calderon himself was even willing to acknowledge that much: “The only battle in which we are not advancing well is the battle of perception,” Mr. Calderón told the wire service. As Calderon heads to Washington, the unsolved apparent kidnapping of Calderon’s political ally, former PAN presidential candidate, Diego Fernandez de Cevallos – what the Wall Street Journal calls “the most high profile kidnapping” since Calderon took office in 2006 – has questions about insecurity on the public’s mind even more than before. [Note: The paper notes that officials still do not know whether the case is the work of drug cartels, guerrilla groups or other criminals].

If his Reuters interview is any indication, the Mexican president still seems unwilling to flinch in the prosecution of the Mexican drug war. “The alternative,” he says, “is to leave people in the hands of criminals, to turn a blind eye, pretend nothing is happening, leave them open territory so they end up finishing off communities.” But as an NPR investigative piece on the fight against cartels in Ciudad Juarez argues, the Mexican military’s fight may be increasingly selective – cracking down on some cartels while leaving others, namely the Sinaloa cartel, to conduct business as usual.

Other Mexico-related pieces this morning include two articles at Foreign Policy. Marcelo Bergman, professor of legal studies at CIDE in Mexico City on why the Obama administration continues to place too much emphasis on “strengthening Mexico’s military capacity” and “promoting the rule of law.” And Human Rights Watch’s José Miguel Vivanco on why Barack Obama should bring up the Mexican military’s atrocious human rights record when meeting with President Calderón. Finally, at the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute site, a new series of working papers on US-Mexico security cooperation.

To other stories:

· Everyone has something to say about the Brazil-brokered Iran-Turkey nuclear fuel swapping deal which was signed Monday in Tehran. The New York Times says the US, EU, and Russia are “skeptical” about the agreement, noting similarities with an agreement Iran made with the West last October which was later broken. Ditto from the Economist (although someone should tell the magazine that the tango is usually considered more Argentine than Brazilian). On Brazil specifically, the magazine writes how “Israel has already said that Brazil, inexperienced in Middle East diplomacy, may have been manipulated, and more skepticism is certain in the days to come.” The White House released a short statement on the agreement yesterday, demonstrating its reservations about the deal. The State Dept. also spoke at length about the plan during it’s Monday briefing. Steve Clemons posts the White House statement and analyzes at the Washington Note. And as expected, the Washington Post attacks the deal, taking the hard line position that even if Tehran sticks to the agreement, the Brazil-Turkey mediation should be considered a failure by the US and its allies since it does not require an end to all high-level uranium enrichment.

· The counter to these arguments, however, is also worth a look – particularly thinking about Brazil’s emergence on the global stage. Speaking on Brazilian radio after the deal yesterday, Lula declared “diplomacy emerged victorious … It showed that it is possible to build peace and development with dialogue.” A video interview with Al-Jazeera and a recent article from the same also are worth a look for Lula’s commitment to the idea of international diplomacy. At Foreign Policy I recommend taking a look at David Rothkopf’s opinion on Brazil [UN correspondent Colum Lynch offers a similar take as well at his FP blog]. At the level of international politics, Rothkopf sees something potentially very important in Monday’s deal, beyond the specific terms of the agreement.

“During the Cold War, international actors typically had a binary choice. They could seek the favor and advocacy of the East or the West, the Soviets or the Americans. Then, almost twenty years ago that all ended. And for a while it appeared, the choice was America or an international community that couldn't get its act together terribly effectively.

But Turkey and Brazil working closely with Russia, India, and China, have effectively sent a message that Plan B has returned to the global equation. They have essentially said they didn't want to go along with the American approach to solving the problem (sanctions) and were vehemently against the Israeli approach (bombs away). The Turks in particular have been vocal with their BRIC partners in expressing their skepticism of the effectiveness of sanctions and their sense they would be very counterproductive.”

Lucia Newman of Al-Jazeera also offers some interesting counterpoints to the skepticism of the US and its European allies. Quoting a US State Dept. official who last week said Lula was “letting Brazil's emerging power status get to his head,” Newman argues that “it is worth noting those who were laughing at President Lula last week are not laughing anymore” – even if Monday’s deal alone does not bring an immediate solution to the Iran conflict.

· On drug trafficking, the Miami Herald reports on drugs and Jamaica where PM Bruce Golding, in “an about-face,” agreed Monday to extradite Christopher “Dudus” Coke, one of the world’s most notorious drug traffickers, to the US.

· The AP reports that Nicaragua’s navy says Mexico’s La Familia cartel is moving deeper into Central America. Capt. Roger Gonzalez Diaz tells the news service that the cartel is now “transporting, storing and distributing drugs from the time they leave Colombia to the time they reach the U.S. market.” Los Zetas have long been seen as encroaching on Central American territory but now it appears La Familia and the Sinaloa cartel are joining them.

· In Peru, Alan Garcia issued a 60 day state of emergency in Huánuco, Ucayali and San Martín – states where traffickers are still considered to be most active. The decree comes on the 30^th anniversary of the Shining Path’s first attack. More on the Shining Path and drugs at the Financial Times (subscription required).

· BBC Mundo asks: why is Alberto Fujimori receiving up to 180 visits per day while in prison? According to the Peruvian magazine, “Caretas,” it has do with Fujimori’s active “campaign from the carcél,” supporting his daughter, Keiko’s, presidential bid. Keiko Fujimori denies this, saying most are just loyal supporters of her father who want to “show their affection and solidarity” with him.

· At Honduras Culture and Politics, RAJ raises question about the German Friedrich Neumann Foundation providing advice on how to reform Honduras’s national police forces.

· More on the idea of a regional commission against impunity in Central America, at IPS, which says the idea has the support of many human rights organizations in the region.

· The AP has a short piece on legislative elections in the Dominican Republic which appear to have solidified the legislative base of support for current President Leonel Fernandez.

· The AP also reports on the $2 billion over five years which Haiti seeks from the Inter-American Development Bank to help rebuild its education system.

· And in Cuba, blogger Dania Virgen García was released from prison late last week. García, a sympathizer of the “Damas de Blanco” opposition group, had spent over two weeks in prison before her imprisonment drew international condemnation.