Lula the miracle maker? That’s the question being asked this morning after Brazil and Turkey announced around 2am Monday (Tehran time) that a deal was close with Iran on the much-discussed issue of a nuclear fuel swapping – a process by which Iran’s existing enriched uranium is sent to a third party country to be converted into fuel for a research reactor. Al-Jazeera is now reporting that Iran has indeed signed on to the deal which “obliges” the country to “send Turkey 1.2 tons of uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)” in exchange for 120 kg of nuclear fuel for from Turkey for its research reactor.]
Here’s a recap on what may just be an historic deal: Al-Jazeera’s Gabriel Elizondo was one of the first to issue a report late last night from Sao Paulo, writing that “after 18 hours of negotiations” Brazil was “very optimistic” that a deal had been struck. Turkish delegates (among them PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who joined the Brazil-Iran talks “at the last minute”) seemed even more optimistic, telling Al-Jazeera Sunday that “Yes, a deal had been reached [with Iran].” Reuters also had an early report on the successful talks, but noted that no details were expected until sometime Monday. Upon his departure for Tehran, PM Erdogan did say, however, that the trip came about because of a new clause saying the [nuclear fuel] swap would take place in Turkey.
Early this morning, the AP’s lead says Sunday’s breakthrough “elevates a new group of mediators for the first time in the dispute over Iran's nuclear activities.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast went on state television today [Monday] in Tehran, the AP says, telling the world that, “it was agreed during the trilateral meeting of Iranian, Turkish and Brazilian leaders that Turkey will be the venue for swapping” Iran's stocks of enriched uranium for nuclear fuel rods to power a medical research reactor. The LA Times adds that within a week the Iranian foreign ministry plans to send a letter highlighting the details of the deal to the IAEA, who would then supervise the fuel swap. While “questions remain,” in the Times’ words, “if a deal comes to fruition it would mark yet another milestone in the rise of new powers challenging the domination of the West.”
Such questions extend beyond Iran as well. As the Wall Street Journal writes, “It is unclear whether Washington and allied capitals will accept the new agreement, or how the deal could affect the U.S.-led effort to further sanction the Iranian regime” through the UN Security Council. On Friday, US Sec. of State Hillary Clinton was anything but optimistic about Brazil brokering a deal with Iran, predicting Lula’s mediation would fail. To that, here’s what Lula had to say Saturday:
“It’s more difficult for someone who has nuclear weapons to ask someone not to develop nuclear weapons. It's easier for someone who does not carry nuclear weapons, like myself, to ask for that.”
Beyond the nuclear fuel issue, Brazil and Iran also signed eight memos of understanding over the weekend, related to “trade cooperation, opening direct lines of credit, technology exchange and cooperation in the energy field.” Speaking after the signing of those deals, Lula told reporters that “a new economic and commercial geography ... needs a multilateral system.” Stay tuned for more.
On to more stories over a very busy weekend:
· Staying with Brazil for a second, new poll numbers ahead of October presidential elections show Lula’s PT candidate Dilma Rouseff picking up significant ground against (and surpassing) her rival José Serra. Thirty-eight percent of Brazilian voters now favor Rouseff over Serra, who gets 35% support according to the Vox Populi poll released Saturday. An April poll showed Serra defeating Rouseff by a 34-31 margin. However, Ms. Rouseff now has company on her left-flank, as former PT environment minister-turned-Green Party activist, Marina Silva announced Sunday she too is officially in the running. At the Green Party’s convention near Rio Sunday, Silva said her presidential bid will focus on promoting sustainable economic development and combating social injustice and corruption. “We already have many of the technical answers for food, education and housing problems,” she says “what's missing is an ethical commitment.”
· Also, according to classified Federal Police intelligence reports – extracts of which were published in O Estado do Sao Paulo over the weekend – it is now believed that Colombia’s FARC has permanent bases in the Brazilian Amazon. [Brazil denied such claims in March 2007.]
· On the presidential race in Colombia, the LA Times Chris Kraul recently sat down with Antanas Mockus for an interview published this morning. Here are some highlights: responding to a question on Plan Colombia Mockus says he “would like a certain stepping back from current anti-drug policy so that Colombian society can explore all the implications of drug trafficking.” On the reason for his recent rise in the polls, Mockus points to his philosophy of “cooperation.” On Hugo Chavez, Mockus says he “respects” (but does not admire) Chavez as a leader who was “democratically elected, who was reelected democratically, and who, when he lost a referendum, was capable of recognizing it.”
· Also on Colombia, the Washington Post’s Juan Forero talks on NPR about how economic growth in Colombia has done little to end social inequalities in the country, and thus, “fuels instability.” The Wall Street Journal reports on candidate Mockus’s campaign pledge of more taxes. And Reuters highlights the changing political terrain in the country, tracking the shift from security to unemployment and corruption as top issues of concern to Colombian voters.
· Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez has announced he’s skipping the much-heralded EU-Latin America summit which begins tomorrow in Madrid [Venezuela's vice chancellor for Latin America will be attending in his place]. No explanation was given for his absence [Uruguay’s Pepe Mujica is also sitting the summit out due to exhaustion]. But a number of stories on new economic woes make one wonder if that may be behind Chavez’s decision. Venezuelan security agents raided at least four exchange houses for “selling dollars in violation of Venezuela's currency exchange rules” over the weekend -- this after Chavez promised Friday to take new action against unregulated foreign exchange activities following, what Reuters calls “the bolivar's crash against the dollar on a free-floating ‘parallel’ market.” In Chavez speak, that translates to: “The bourgeoisie have gone crazy, they want money, money and more money.” Chavez also said over the weekend he’s in the market for $1 billion in development loans from international banks and allies.
· In Mexico, the big story from the weekend is the disappearance of former PAN presidential candidate Diego Fernandez de Cevallos. Fernandez de Cevallos’s car was found, with blood stains and “signs of violence,” near his ranch in Queretaro Saturday. According to the Wall Street Journal, officials believe the PAN politician may be the victim of kidnapping (although no reports indicate who the perpetrators may be).
· The LA Times also has a report on the drug war’s new push into the northern industrial city of Monterrey – long considered Mexico’s safest and most affluent city. In a near-apocalyptic tone, Gilberto Marcos, a Monterrey industrialist says, “the tradition of a tranquil Monterrey has ended. And if Monterrey is lost, everything is lost.”
· And the Washington Post’s William Booth previews Felipe Calderon’s two-day state visit to Washington later in the week. The visit was supposed to be a “celebration” of US-Mexico anti-drug cooperation but, says the paper, it will likely now “showcase Mexico's frustration over Arizona's tough new immigration law, which Calderón has described as anti-Mexican.”
· In El Salvador, the family members of guerrilla-novelist Roque Dalton have filed a formal complaint with Salvadoran prosecutors regarding the murder of their father in 1975. According to the AP, “the complaint names former FMLN rebel leader Joaquin Villalobos, now an adviser to the Calderon government in Mexico, as well as Jorge Melendez, who serves in the current Salvadoran government as head of the civil defense office.” Dalton was killed by fellow FMLN rebels after being accused of treason.
· Time asks: who is killing Honduran journalists?
· An Al-Jazeera video report from the “lawless” Paraguay-Brazil border town of Pedro Juan Caballero looks at increased drug trafficking and violence. There’s been much made about EPP rebel activity in the area, but says one politician – recently the victim of drug violence – guerrilla activity is “child’s play” compared to the narcos.
· Finally some opinions. Jorge Castaneda in the Washington Post offers his opinion on Calderon’s upcoming Washington visit, calling for “a big idea” between Mexico and the US. It’s time, he argues, for the two countries to ‘de-narcoticize’ their relationship and “make their goal Mexico's development and transformation into a middle-class society.” That includes “building what NAFTA left out” and “reducing the development gap -- in income, welfare, technology, security, rule of law, health and education -- between Mexico and its wealthier North American partners,” Castaneda says. The Miami Herald, in an editorial, discusses Haitian elections, rejecting opposition calls for Preval to step down and calling for Haitians to “pull together” to hold “credible elections,” “preferably in November.” The New York Times also on Haiti, and the challenges of rebuilding efforts. Mary Anastasia O’Grady offers her thoughts on Venezuela’s currency policies. And while the name isn’t a recognizable one, a piece by 19-year-old Sami Kent in The Guardian on “how Hugo Chavez broke my heart” is worth a look.
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