The transition is underway in Brazil, with the Wall Street Journal reporting this morning that Dilma Rousseff has begun the task of putting together a government that can carry out her “mandate” to “continue the policy mix of market-friendly economics and generous social programs.”
Indeed, the economy seems to be top on nearly everyone’s discussion about a post-Lula Brazil.
The Journal reports that former finance minister Antônio Palocci, the “architect” of Lula’s “market-friendly” economic policies, along with PT chief José Eduardo Dutra will most likely head Dilma’s transition team. Their focus: how to deal with rising economic concerns – a “soaring currency” which potentially threatens export competitiveness, high interest rates, and public spending, among them – while also holding together a diverse political coalition that the PT has relied on to govern. As independent journalist Michael Fox points out, that coalition scored a resounding victory in the congress and senate giving the PT perhaps the most “substantial majority” in democratic Brazil’s history. But even so, other reports, suggest that voters who elected that majority are significantly less enthusiastic about the PT this time around than in the past.
The first step in the transition will likely be deciding on a new finance minister and central bank chief. As Folha de São Paulo reported on Monday, Dilma may decide to keep current central banker Henrique Meirelles and current Finance Minister Guido Mantega – something the paper says Lula himself has asked his delfina to consider (although neither would confirm those rumors).
Mercopress confirms the speculation about the transition team, writing that Palocci and Dutra will be joined by former Belo Horizonte mayor Fernando Pimentel and Lula’s top foreign policy adviser Marco Aurelio Garcia in helping Dilma fill out her cabinet.
On the international agenda, reports indicate that Dilma will have her international coming out party in South Korea, just over a week from today. There she will accompany Lula to his last G-20 meeting, the focus of which will be rising global currency tensions.
CFR’s Julia Sweig writes in the new issue of Foreign Affairs that in the long-term Ms. Rousseff’s foreign policy will likely deepen the agenda set by her soon-to-be predecessor. “[L]ook for Rouseff to deepen Brazil's regional commercial dominance and diplomacy, continue if not expand Brazil's presence in Africa, and play a major role in the G20 on climate change and in other multilateral settings,” says Sweig. The development of Brazil’s pre-salt oil reserves – the 8th largest in the world – will no doubt lead to an ever further Brazilian rise on the global stage – while also bringing new and potentially serious environmental and social concerns (The recent reorganization of Petrobras allocates 50 percent of the state's share of pre-salt oil revenues to financing education in science and technology, Sweig writes).
And on US-Brazil relations, Peter Hakim suggests foreign policy differences will continue to crop up after Lula’s exit. Nuclear and trade issues are among the “global” rather than regional issues that will “most seriously jar” the US-Brazil relationship, says Hakim But, at the same time, he argues it is “the international arena” which “may provide some opportunities for cooperation as well.” Sweig adds that “the bilateral relationship is likely to hover in this undefined space of neither friend nor adversary.” Obama and Lula have used the word “global partnership dialogue” to describe their relation, what Sweig sees as “a fuzzy way of acknowledging some interest in building up layers of scaffolding around a house in the very early stages of construction.” Meanwhile, David Rothkopf at Foreign Policy argues now is the time for the US to approach Brazil as a global power deserving of its own “policy” (rather than merely dealing with Brazil within the framework of a larger Latin American policy). Rothkopf:
“Brazil deserves to be broken out of the Latin policy ghetto and, just as the United States has a China policy or Russia policy or India policy, perhaps it is time we really developed an independent, sufficiently complex and flexible, forward-looking, globally oriented, not-for-or-by-beginners Brazil policy.”
To other stories:
· California’s Prop. 19 may be the most watched “Latin Americanist” issue on today’s electoral schedule. WOLA’s Coletta Youngers has some final thoughts on the marijuana legalization initiative at Foreign Policy in Focus. “The likely outcome of Tuesday’s vote on Prop 19 is too close to call. But regardless of the final results,” says Youngers, “the genie has been let out of the bottle.” [Interestingly new GCE poll numbers in Mexico show 58% of Mexicans opposing the legalization of drugs in their country and 52% still opposing international legalization.] At Atlantic Monthly, five drug policy experts offer their thoughts on how marijuana legalization in California would/would not affect Mexico. And perhaps the most interesting analysis on the matter comes from the CS Monitor which says Prop. 19 may show how serious (or not) the Tea Party is about state’s rights. “Some commentators are seeing anecdotal support among many tea partiers for marijuana legalization in California,” the paper writes.
· From Mexico, news that October was the deadliest month of 2010 in Ciudad Juarez. The city registered 350 murders last month, up from 289 in September. Ten of those murders came on the last day of the month. More from El Diario de Juarez. Meanwhile, on the first day of November, the AP reports four Americans were among those killed in separate Juarez attacks on Monday.
· In Uruguay, the AP reports on the Supreme Court’s historic Monday ruling which said amnesty was unconstitutional in a number of cases involving human rights violations committed during the country’s 12 year dictatorship. The ruling on the amnesty law – twice maintained in national referendums – means some 19 murders in a case against former dictator Juan Maria Bordaberry can be investigated, a court spokesman tells the AP. More from Uruguay’s La Republica.
· The Catholic Church in Cuba announced Monday the release of three more political prisoners. EFE notes that the freeing of five others, announced a little over a week ago, is still pending. But the latest announcement includes one of the country’s most well-known prisoners, Adrian Alvarez Arencibia. Alvarez Arencibia was arrested in 1985 and, says EFE, is “considered to be the longest-held political prisoner” on the island. Again, however, none of the new releases are among the 52 Cuba agreed to release in July (only 39 of those individuals have been freed thus far).
· In Haiti, Al-Jazeera and the AP report that scientists have confirmed that the strain of cholera which has killed at least 337 did in fact come from South Asia. “The finding puts the spotlight on a UN base above a tributary to the Artibonite River that is home to soldiers from Nepal,” Al-Jazeera says. The UN continues to await a separate set of test results that it has been conducting. Meanwhile, the AP adds that Haiti is also preparing for a potential hurricane to hit later this week, adding even more complications to relief efforts. More on Haiti from the US Institute of Peace which hosted former Haitian PM Michele Pierre-Louis last week to discuss reconstruction and relief efforts. Audio available.
· Bolivian President Evo Morales was in Iran last week and has announced that Iran will partner with Bolivia to develop its lithium reserves. Finance Minister Luis Arce rejected rumors that Bolivia would enter a uranium deal with Iran, although Iran has agreed to help Bolivia build a nuclear power plant. The AP adds that the two countries also signed a letter of intent on an aircraft deal that could send Iranian-made planes and helicopters to the Andean country.
· And finally, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez hits his one millionth follower on Twitter, Información Cívica has a great analysis of internet censorship across Latin America.
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