With the dust settling after the Republicans “shellacking” of Democrats Tuesday, a summary this morning of the almost obligatory – but ultimately speculative – commentary on what US midterm election results could mean for US-Latin American relations.
As Josh Rogin at The Cable writes, the biggest shift will likely be on the House Foreign Affairs Committee where anti-Castro hardliner Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) will take over the chairmanship of the committee come January. According to Rogin, Ros-Lehtinen “has staked out firm positions on several issues that stand in contrast to now outgoing chairman Howard Berman (D-CA)” and “her ascendancy will….change the tone and agenda of the committee.” On Latin America in particular, Ros-Lehtinen seems “poised to thwart Obama's efforts to move toward repealing sanctions on Fidel Castro.”
Anya Landau French, director of the Cuba Policy Initiative at the New America Foundation, adds more on Ros-Lehtinen at the Havana Note, writing that “no engagement-oriented Cuba bills will move through” Ros-Lehtinen’s committee. And, in fact, the incoming chairwoman “might well choose to move legislation…that would tighten the embargo.” But, to be sure, that does not preclude other committees from taking action. She notes that Arizona Republican Congressman Jeff Flake was able to send “various incremental reforms on appropriation bills” through a Republican-controlled Congress at the beginning of the decade, even while the late Henry Hyde, an embargo supporter chaired the Foreign Affairs Committee in the House. Landau French also says some incoming freshman conservatives, many of whom have espoused anti-government government spending platforms, “will be hard pressed to vote against a measure that a) restores a basic freedom (travel) to Americans, and b) eliminates needless government spending.” (Certainly the newly elected Marco Rubio (R-FL) seems to be an example of the opposite).
The bottom line on US-Cuba policy during the next Congress, according to Landau French: few real changes, “other than that there is likely to be a discernable drop, at least initially, in pro-reform enthusiasm and momentum.”
Adam Isacson at Just the Facts says the new Republican majority in the House will mean a “tougher stance” toward Latin American leftists in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua, as well as Cuba. In addition, Isacson speculates, more vigorous movement on “free trade” deals with Colombia and Panama can be expected (unless US unemployment continues to remain high) and “calls from some quarters to increase ‘drug war’ aid” are also likely crop up. Isacson also notes that another hard-line Florida Republican, Connie Mack will be replacing Eliot Engel (D-NY) as the chair of the Western Hemisphere subcommittee – perhaps another sign that Cuba policy (and Latin America policy more broadly?) has become little more than an extension of domestic interests (or just Florida interests).
Picking up on Venezuela, Eric Farnsworth at AQ says the “troika” of Ros-Lehtinen—Mack—Rubio (and potentially other conservatives) may push for the “renewal of an effort to sanction Venezuela as a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’” while perhaps pushing for new sanctions against Iran’s economic allies in the region as well – Brazil among them.
In the Miami Herald Andres Oppenheimer says the Republican pledge to slash spending will hit Latin America’s foreign aid budget while the anti-immigration sentiment that binds together many of the Tea Party types means there is almost no chance of passing “comprehensive immigration reform” that would give an earned path to citizenship to the more than 11 million undocumented foreigners living in the US. Also, according to Oppenheimer, incoming-chairwoman Ros-Lehtinen apparently no longer supports placing Venezuela on the “state sponsor of terrorism” list – something I, for one, was unaware of.
Moving along:
· Additional post-mortem analysis on Prop. 19 in California. In an op-ed in the LA Times the Drug Policy Alliance’s California director, Stephen Gutwillig, again emphasizes the historic nature of the defeated initiative, which, he argues, has “placed marijuana legalization squarely in the mainstream of American politics.” Of long term interest to drug policy watchers may be the unique coalition that was formed around Prop. 19. Here’s Gutwillig:
“Another highly significant accomplishment of the Proposition 19 phenomenon is the unprecedented coalition it forged. Longtime drug policy reformers such as my organization were joined for the first time by mainstream civil rights groups, organized labor and the largest contingent of dissident law enforcement figures ever publicly assembled on this issue.”
More from John Walsh at WOLA, who provides a slightly more Latin America-centric analysis of what Prop. 19’s defeat means.
· On the other major hemispheric vote this week – the election of Dilma Rouseff in Brazil – a bit more from Just the Facts, who has a new podcast interview with security analyst Sam Logan. At The Nation, Kenneth Rapoza, a former Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal Brazil correspondent, says, like many others have, that the successful handling of the domestic economy by Lula da Silva is the principal reason behind Dilma Rouseff’s victory. And at Foreign Policy in Focus, Steve Fake, provides a critique of Rouseff from the left, arguing that by continuing down the trail Lula has blazed, there is a “significant danger” that [Dilma’s] administration will “facilitate the assimilation and neutering of the social movements,” particularly the MST.
· In Ciudad Juarez, the AP says another US citizen was killed Tuesday night – the fifth American killed in Juarez in the last six days. The victim – a 23-year-old UTEP student – was killed when his car was attacked by gunmen. On Wednesday four other young people were shot by gunmen outside the Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez’s (UACJ) Institute of Biomedical Sciences. Two have died while two others remain in critical condition. Nevertheless, students at the UACJ seem determined to continue on with their public demonstrations against violence and the militarization in their city. The demonstrations of the last week have amounted to the most significant acts of citizen protest against Juarez’s growing insecurity in some time.
· Also on Mexico, the New York Times reports on the discovery of a new smuggling tunnel from Tijuana to San Diego, filled with approx. 30 tons of marijuana heading into California. And in Acapulco, the AP writes on the discovery of a new mass grave with the bodies of 18 individuals. There are early indications that the bodies could be those of a group of 20 tourists kidnapped in Acapulco about one month ago. The location of the grave was announced via You Tube by men claiming to represent the little known Acapulco Independent Cartel (CIDA). In the video, the CIDA says the killings were an act of revenge against La Familia.
· In Colombia, Senator Piedad Cordoba was officially dismissed from the Colombian Senate Tuesday – this after the Colombian Inspector General barred her from office for 18 years for alleged ties to the FARC last month. More on disputed dismissal of Cordoba from Constanza Vieira at IPS.
· AFP with more on joint Colombia-Venezuela anti-drug cooperation, which will include the moving of some 15,000 Venezuelan troops to the Colombian border to root out traffickers, extortionists, and kidnappers.
· And the New York Times reports on the suspension of seven Colombian military officers and soldiers for “failing to control their troops in connection with the brutal murders last month of three impoverished children near Colombia’s northeast border with Venezuela.” As Simon Romero writes, “the suspensions…raised new questions about abuses by Colombia’s armed forces, which are a major recipient of security assistance and training from the United States.”
· Venezuela Analysis makes note of a new “School for Human Rights” which opened in Caracas Saturday. According to a release from the Venezuelan ombudsman’s office, the center will seek to “complement the academic training and research of various professionals in the field of promotion and defense of human rights with a critical and progressive approach.” Also from Guyana’s ambassador to Venezuela, more on the recently proposed UNASUR “democracy clause,” aimed at preventing the occurrence of coups in South America and specifying concrete actions to be taken by member nations against offending regimes.
· IPS reports on the extradition of Peruvian army officer Telmo Hurtado from the US back to Peru where he will face human rights abuse charges related to a 1985 massacre of 69 people in the village of Accomarca.
· The School of the Americas Watch says two speakers invited to their annual SOA Watch Vigil – one Honduran and one Costa Rican – have been denied visas to the US. The Costa Rican, Gerardo Brenes, is a former student at the SOA and would be the “first graduate of the SOA to speak out against the school in front of his Alma Mater,” says SOAW.
· And finally, the AP’s Jonathan Katz talks to public health experts about cholera in Haiti – and the fact that the disease increasingly appears to have entered the country by way of a Nepalese UN base. The CDC, World Health Organization and United Nations continue to say “it's not possible to pinpoint the source and investigating further would distract from efforts to fight the disease” – an argument some public health experts say looks more like “politics” than science.
*note correction: UNASUR's "democracy clause" has not yet been approved -- it has only been proposed and will be taken up in Guyana later this month.
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