Calderon, Obama Denounce Arizona Immigration Law

Immigration topped day one of President Felipe Calderon’s visit to Washington DC yesterday. Speaking alongside President Barack Obama at the White House, Calderon denounced the new immigration legislation being implemented in Arizona while, in the New York Times’ words, also defending his government’s record on border security. He found a sympathetic ear in Mr. Obama, who also attacked the Arizona law – calling it “a misdirected expression of frustration over our broken immigration system. [Obama, however, also noted he did not have the 60 votes necessary in the Senate to pursue federal immigration reform]. In an attempt to quell Mexico’s frustration, President Obama said his administration continues to examine the law because “no law-abiding person, be they an American citizen, a legal immigrant, or a visitor or tourist from Mexico, should ever be subject to suspicion simply because of what they look like.”

The Times also focuses on the “human face” of the immigration debate, made manifest to first ladies Michelle Obama and Margarita Zavala de Calderón at a Maryland elementary school just before their husbands addressed reporters. It was there where a young girl asked Ms. Obama if her mother – in the US without proper documentation – now faced the risk of deportation.

President Calderon is scheduled to address a joint session of the US Congress today.

With more on US-Mexico relations, the ranking member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), released a new report on US-Mexico efforts against organized crime and drug trafficking, coinciding with Calderón’s visit. The report, entitled “Common Enemy, Common Struggle,” (a link to the full download available here) was prepared by Lugar senior staffer, Carl Meachem, recently sent by the Senator to Mexico City to assess Mérida Initiative progress.

The Criminal Division of the US Justice Department also urged serious reform of the Mexican judicial system ahead of Calderon’s arrival yesterday. Lanny Breuer, the US Assistant Attorney General in charge of the division, tells AFP that the Mexican court system has just a three percent conviction rate in drug trafficking cases. The US continues to work with its Mexican counterparts on the issue, says Breuer, having trained almost 5,500 Mexican legal employees over the last year.

Civil society groups – among them the US-based Washington Office on Latin America and the Latin America Working Group, along with Mexican organizations Fundar, PRODH, and Tlachinollan – are urging the US and Mexico to get serious about “moving beyond ineffective and worn-out strategies.” In a statement yesterday, the organizations recommend expanding community-based prevention programs and evidence-based drug treatment; strengthening human-rights based security initiatives; promoting judicial reform; and increasing enforcement and cooperation of money laundering, among other things.

And a four-month investigation by National Public Radio which claims elements of the Mexican military are colluding with the Sinaloa cartel around Ciudad Juarez is getting lots of talk. Journalist John Burnett speaks on NPR’s Talk of the Nation yesterday about the investigative report. He emphasizes that “elements” of the Mexican military – not the military as a whole – is being compromised by Sinaloa – the largest of Mexico’s seven drug cartels. According to Burnett, Sinaloa is the “Sicily of Mexico” – the heartland of Mexico’s drug war – and it’s leader Joaquín, “el Chapo” Gúzman has been able to expand his influence to other parts of the country “because of the favor he’s been able to curry with the government.” Here’s the fact of the day from the report: Burnett says press releases indicate that about 2600 arrests have been made by Mexico in its fight against drug cartels. However, only 104 of these arrests have occurred in Juarez [where, Burnett says, 10,000 troops and federal police had been dispatched]. Eighty-eight of those arrests involved Juarez cartel members while just 16 were from the Sinaloa cartel. The Mexican government, speaking to EFE yesterday, denied the claims of collusion made by the NPR report.

On to other stories today:

· In Honduras, the Inter-American Human Rights Commission (IACHR) has a new statement out following a four-day delegation visit to the country, which ended Tuesday. The delegation included IACHR Chair Felipe González, First Vice-Chair Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, Executive Secretary Santiago A. Canton, Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Expression Catalina Botero, and staff of the Executive Secretariat. A full report is expected in the coming weeks. For now, however, the IACHR expresses its “deep concern over the continuation of human rights violations in the context of the coup d’etat” of June 2009. Interestingly, the IACHR is explicit in distinguishing these concerns with general concerns about common crime that plagued the country even before June 28. It writes:

“Without prejudice to the high rate of criminality that in general exists in Honduras, the IACHR believes that the complaints received could correspond to the same pattern of violence that the IACHR reported in Honduras: Human Rights and the Coup d’État, published on January 20, 2010.”

This, the IACHR says, includes continued “threats and acts of harassment” against “human rights defenders, journalists, communicators, teachers, and members of the Resistance,” as well as “acts of harassment directed against judges who participated in activities against the coup d’état.” It’s that last issue of illegal judicial dismissals which Human Rights Watch is also condemning. According to HRW: “On May 12, 2010, the Honduran Supreme Court ratified its May 5 vote to dismiss four lower-court judges who are members of Judges for Democracy, a group that has challenged the legality of the coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya last year … Under Honduran law, the disciplinary proceeding leading to the judges' removal is not transparent and does not afford basic due process guarantee.”

· At World Politics Review, Kari Lipschutz has a short interview with Inter-American Dialogue president, Michael Shifter, on Ecuador’s foreign policy.

· US and Cuban officials, says AFP, are talking with one another, “at the working level,” about the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. According to Gordon Duguid, a State Department spokesman, no details could be shared about when the talks began, where they were taking place, or who was involved.

· CNN has an interesting report about the difficulties of internal migration in Cuba as thousands who have come to Havana from rural provinces in the last decade have been “deported” back to their homes under a 1997 decree that restricts rural migration to the capital.

· Brazil and Turkey continued their public protests against the idea of new UN Security Council sanctions on Iran Wednesday. In a letter to the UN body, the two write that they are “convinced that it is time to give a chance for negotiations and to avoid measures that are detrimental to a peaceful solution.” They also called the nuclear fuel swapping deal struck Monday a “realistic and achievable road map.”

· BBC Mundo reports on a citizen initiative to fight political corruption and impunity in Brazil, which was approved by the national congress this week.

· Also from BBC, news that the Inter-American Human Rights Court will, on Thursday, begin hearing a case brought against the Brazilian state by human rights groups and family members of some 70 individuals, disappeared by the military from 1972 to 1975 in operations against the so-called “Araguaia guerrilla movement.” According to the Center for Justice and International Law’s (CEJIL) Viviana Krsticevic, an amnesty law remains the principal obstacle in the prosecution of those involved in human rights violations during Brazil’s cold war-era dictatorship.

· The Washington Post’s Juan Forero writes on the most recent set of accusations charging that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez has provided assistance to the FARC and ETA. Documents from the two groups, the Post says, “suggest that Venezuela facilitated training sessions [in Venezuela] between the FARC and ETA.”

· Journalist Frank Smyth has a piece discussing Guatemala, its role in the drug trade as Central America’s principal “Transit Zone,” and the issue of impunity. According to Smyth, Guatemala “stands out in the region for having the worst record for either prosecuting or extraditing its own major suspects” implicated in trafficking activity. Smyth also notes that, unlike other countries in the region, “Guatemala’s ‘host-country’ trafficking organizations are suspected of each being tied to one or more of the nation’s retired Army intelligence commanders who have a long history of collaboration.”

· Finally some opinions. Andrew Selee, David Shirk, and Eric Olson of the Wilson Center offer their thoughts on President Calderon’s “historic” visit to DC. At the Washington Post’s website, Edward Schumacher-Matos says “the only solution to the drug trafficking and violence on both sides of the border is to legalize drugs.” But unfortunately, he says, that won’t be on the agenda for Calderon-Obama talks this week. At CFR’s site, Prof. Antonio Ramalho gives an interesting interview on Brazil, its role in Iran nuclear negotiations, as well as its position on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. And Alvaro Vargas Llosa discusses the “anti-politics” of Antanas Mockus in Colombia. He writes: “I have seen too many anti-politicians not to fear Mr. Mockus turning into a Fujimori or a Chavez. But the more I observe Colombia, the more I am convinced that his support is for the right reasons, whether he delivers or not – meaning that Colombians will hold him in check if he wins and becomes messianic.”

Clinton's Unspoken Message: Brazil, Please Step Aside

The focus of this blog is not usually international diplomacy, but I lead with another post on the subject this morning – a day after U.S. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton announced the United States would go ahead with its push for a new round of UN sanctions on Iran, despite Monday’s “new” Iran-Brazil-Turkey nuclear fuel deal (the “newness” of which has been the subject of much debate over the last two days).

We begin with New York Times reporting this morning, which says the Obama administration announced Tuesday that it had received the backing of the two most hesitant permanent Security Council members, Russia and China, to move ahead with what would be the fourth round of UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. The scene for an “intense tug of war with Tehran” has been set, the paper writes, while Sec. of State Hillary Clinton – who made the announcement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday – called the new US-led sanctions proposal “as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.” With words like that, it’s hard to imagine the Brazilians (and Turks) won’t see Tuesday as a direct slap-in-the-face. [According to the Wall Street Journal, senior administration officials say Tuesday’s announcement was “a direct response” to Monday’s Brazil-Turkey-Iran agreement].

The proposal would not seem so surprising (the US has been pushing the Security Council on new sanctions for months) if it were not for the timing – just one day after the aforementioned agreement that would have Iran sending nuclear fuel to Turkey for partial enrichment under IAEA supervision. For that reason, UN reporter Evelyn Leopold writes at the Huffington Post that the unspoken message of the sanctions proposal “in effect tell[s] [Brazil and Turkey] they were not going to run the show.” In an interview with Al-Jazeera over the weekend, Brazilian President Lula da Silva said he continues to oppose any new sanctions on the Iranian regime but in the end would be forced to abide by them, as a member of the UN, should the Security Council move in that direction. On Tuesday, however, the message from the Brazilians was still one of resistance. According to Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Brazil’s ambassador to the United Nations:

“Brazil will not engage in the negotiation at this moment because of the important accord signed in Tehran. This is the moment to continue diplomacy and continue negotiations. We should give a chance to the treaty signed in Tehran to produce results, negotiated results for a peaceful resolution for the Iranian problem. Brazil is going to continue with Turkey, the efforts for negotiations and we hope other countries will join us.”

Ditto from Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim who was involved in the Tehran negotiations over the weekend. He said yesterday that Monday's nuclear fuel deal did not solve all the issues of concern regarding Iran’s nuclear program, but it did lay the groundwork for a peaceful solution. “I am optimistic about the results,” Amorim said after returning to Brasilia – but before getting word of the new sanctions push by the United States and some of its European allies.

For more good opinions on the matter, I recommend Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy and especially Stephen Kinzer at Global Post, just back from Iran.

To other stories:

· Continuing with Latin America in the international arena, leaders from the region were in Madrid Tuesday for the much-anticipated EU-Latin American Summit, hosted by the Spanish government. There, some 60 heads of state and government unanimously supported an agreement calling for what EFE refers to as “new instruments of global governance for a multipolar world.” Coming on the same day as the US’s new Iran sanctions push, Argentine President Cristina Kirchner’s words seem particularly fitting. Kirchner, the report says, argued that the event’s declaration confirms that multilateralism is “the most suitable method to deal with not only financial problems, but also those of the political order.” She continued with a brief history lesson that some will find intriguing: “there was unanimity in understanding that multilateral entities date from the postwar (era) and from a world that today doesn’t exist any more.”

· The EU also announced the creation of $3 billion euro investment fund for Latin America, which will initially focus on supporting major infrastructure, energy, and transportation projects in the region. In a separate meeting with Central American nations, the EU signed a new “Association Agreement” with the countries of that sub-region, opening up new European markets for a variety of Central American goods. AFP calls the accord “an historic event” as it represents the first such agreement between Central America and Europe.

· Meanwhile, the Mexican government turns North today, as President Felipe Calderon addresses the US Congress before appearing with President Barack Obama at the White House’s second formal state dinner of the Obama presidency. Calderon will also be visiting Arlington National Cemetery, according to the Washington Post – a symbolic gesture “signaling the closure of a wound that dates from a 1914 U.S. military occupation -- and the vast improvement in U.S.-Mexico relations in recent years.” [According to Mexican officials, Calderón will be the first Mexican president to lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.] Andrew Selee, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center, says US-Mexico “relations are at their best point ever” – but adds “this is not to say there aren't enormous problems.” Among the issues that are sure to be discussed during the Calderon visit, say experts, are differences on immigration, as well as drug war cooperation.

· On the former issue of immigration, the Post notes that pro-immigration congressman Luis Gutierrez was not given an invite to Wednesday White House dinner [Carlos Slim was invited apparently]. On the latter point, Just the Facts reports that an additional $175 million in US aid has been unexpectedly slipped into a supplemental funding request “marked up” by the Senate Appropriations Committee last week. According to WOLA’s Adam Isacson, the money “would be channeled through the State Department’s International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement program, and would support “judicial reform, institution building, anti-corruption, and rule of law activities.” That, Isacson says, would put total 2010 Mexico aid from the US - both military/police and economic/social aid – at about $935 million: the second-largest one-year amount ever appropriated to a single Latin American country [only behind 2000 US aid to Colombia]. More reporting on the Calderon visit from the Wall Street Journal and Time as well this morning.

· In other Mexico news, the AP reports that the majority of the police force in the small town of La Union, state of Guerrero, quit this week after armed men ambushed and wounded two of the unit’s officers. State police have now been called in to fill the security void. And the LA Times today has more on the on-going search for former PAN presidential candidate, Diego Fernandez de Cevallos – the story which has captured the attention of a nation. Interestingly, the paper notes the following about “el Jefe”: “Fernandez de Cevallos was more feared than beloved, and if he was the victim of kidnapping, as the evidence suggests, the list of suspects is a long one.”

· In Ecuador, BBC Mundo looks at Ecuador, six years after the passage of Transparency and Freedom of Information legislation. According to citizen’s organizations monitoring the legislation’s implementation, success has to this point only been “partial.” In 2004, Ecuador’s legislation was considered trailblazing in the context of Latin America (today 14 other Lat Am countries have passed similar legislation). But according to a report from the group Fundamedios, of the 69 information-access petitions in 2009, only 7 ended with the state handing over the requested information. According to President Rafael Correa, the problem lies not with his central government (which he claims has complied with 93% of freedom of information requests) but rather with local governments and autonomous institutions.

· At AQ, Christopher Sabatini has a piece from Brazil on citizen security in Rio de Janeiro, examining the concept of “pacification” used to describe anti-crime initiatives in the city’s favelas. He also discusses what sorts of social policies must be used to consolidate security gains. His argument: basic infrastructure, education, and credit are the principal elements needed to “secure the peace.”

· The Wall Street Journal reports on new Venezuelan restrictions of previously unregulated currency trading markets, which will now come under Central Bank control in an attempt to halt rising inflation.

· In Nicaragua, EFE says the opposition is again putting a halt to the work of the country’s National Assembly.

· Finally, Mexico opinions fill papers and the web today. Mexico’s ambassador to the US, Arturo Sarukhán in El Universal on why the US and Mexico will “succeed or fail together.” A similar tone from the Miami Herald’s editorial board and a piece by Sidney Weintraub and Johanna Mendelson of CSIS. CFR’s Shannon O’Neil offers her thoughts on the two issues of immigration and the drug war that will occupy most of the discussion with Mr. Calderon this week. And Human Rights Watch offers seven useful questions and answers about how human rights are being neglected in Mexico’s current fight against drug cartels.

· One extra web-gem today: Foreign Policy’s genius photo collage of Lula’s somewhat bizarre affinity for photography. Anyone have an explanation?

Calderon's Tightrope

The New York Times’ Marc Lacey reports this morning on Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s upcoming visit to the United States. On Wednesday Calderon is scheduled to address a joint session of the Congress in Washington where, the paper says, he faces a tough tightrope act. In the Times’ words: “How can [Calderon] discuss the violence in his country with enough urgency to secure more assistance from Washington but also reassure American lawmakers that Mexico is not spinning out of control?” According to the president’s aides, Mr. Calderon will acknowledge shortcomings in Mexico’s fight against drug traffickers while also noting the progress that has been made with respect to arrests, drug and gun seizures and extraditions to the United States – all of which have increased significantly under the president’s watch. But as a Newsweek piece by Michael Isikoff infers, rising gun seizure numbers come as illegal trafficking of high-powered U.S. weapons into Mexico continues “unimpeded” and, according to one law enforcement official, “may actually be increasing.”

So too is violence up – and that’s the trend with which most remain preoccupied, both in the US and Mexico. Speaking to Reuters last week, Calderon himself was even willing to acknowledge that much: “The only battle in which we are not advancing well is the battle of perception,” Mr. Calderón told the wire service. As Calderon heads to Washington, the unsolved apparent kidnapping of Calderon’s political ally, former PAN presidential candidate, Diego Fernandez de Cevallos – what the Wall Street Journal calls “the most high profile kidnapping” since Calderon took office in 2006 – has questions about insecurity on the public’s mind even more than before. [Note: The paper notes that officials still do not know whether the case is the work of drug cartels, guerrilla groups or other criminals].

If his Reuters interview is any indication, the Mexican president still seems unwilling to flinch in the prosecution of the Mexican drug war. “The alternative,” he says, “is to leave people in the hands of criminals, to turn a blind eye, pretend nothing is happening, leave them open territory so they end up finishing off communities.” But as an NPR investigative piece on the fight against cartels in Ciudad Juarez argues, the Mexican military’s fight may be increasingly selective – cracking down on some cartels while leaving others, namely the Sinaloa cartel, to conduct business as usual.

Other Mexico-related pieces this morning include two articles at Foreign Policy. Marcelo Bergman, professor of legal studies at CIDE in Mexico City on why the Obama administration continues to place too much emphasis on “strengthening Mexico’s military capacity” and “promoting the rule of law.” And Human Rights Watch’s José Miguel Vivanco on why Barack Obama should bring up the Mexican military’s atrocious human rights record when meeting with President Calderón. Finally, at the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute site, a new series of working papers on US-Mexico security cooperation.

To other stories:

· Everyone has something to say about the Brazil-brokered Iran-Turkey nuclear fuel swapping deal which was signed Monday in Tehran. The New York Times says the US, EU, and Russia are “skeptical” about the agreement, noting similarities with an agreement Iran made with the West last October which was later broken. Ditto from the Economist (although someone should tell the magazine that the tango is usually considered more Argentine than Brazilian). On Brazil specifically, the magazine writes how “Israel has already said that Brazil, inexperienced in Middle East diplomacy, may have been manipulated, and more skepticism is certain in the days to come.” The White House released a short statement on the agreement yesterday, demonstrating its reservations about the deal. The State Dept. also spoke at length about the plan during it’s Monday briefing. Steve Clemons posts the White House statement and analyzes at the Washington Note. And as expected, the Washington Post attacks the deal, taking the hard line position that even if Tehran sticks to the agreement, the Brazil-Turkey mediation should be considered a failure by the US and its allies since it does not require an end to all high-level uranium enrichment.

· The counter to these arguments, however, is also worth a look – particularly thinking about Brazil’s emergence on the global stage. Speaking on Brazilian radio after the deal yesterday, Lula declared “diplomacy emerged victorious … It showed that it is possible to build peace and development with dialogue.” A video interview with Al-Jazeera and a recent article from the same also are worth a look for Lula’s commitment to the idea of international diplomacy. At Foreign Policy I recommend taking a look at David Rothkopf’s opinion on Brazil [UN correspondent Colum Lynch offers a similar take as well at his FP blog]. At the level of international politics, Rothkopf sees something potentially very important in Monday’s deal, beyond the specific terms of the agreement.

“During the Cold War, international actors typically had a binary choice. They could seek the favor and advocacy of the East or the West, the Soviets or the Americans. Then, almost twenty years ago that all ended. And for a while it appeared, the choice was America or an international community that couldn't get its act together terribly effectively.

But Turkey and Brazil working closely with Russia, India, and China, have effectively sent a message that Plan B has returned to the global equation. They have essentially said they didn't want to go along with the American approach to solving the problem (sanctions) and were vehemently against the Israeli approach (bombs away). The Turks in particular have been vocal with their BRIC partners in expressing their skepticism of the effectiveness of sanctions and their sense they would be very counterproductive.”

Lucia Newman of Al-Jazeera also offers some interesting counterpoints to the skepticism of the US and its European allies. Quoting a US State Dept. official who last week said Lula was “letting Brazil's emerging power status get to his head,” Newman argues that “it is worth noting those who were laughing at President Lula last week are not laughing anymore” – even if Monday’s deal alone does not bring an immediate solution to the Iran conflict.

· On drug trafficking, the Miami Herald reports on drugs and Jamaica where PM Bruce Golding, in “an about-face,” agreed Monday to extradite Christopher “Dudus” Coke, one of the world’s most notorious drug traffickers, to the US.

· The AP reports that Nicaragua’s navy says Mexico’s La Familia cartel is moving deeper into Central America. Capt. Roger Gonzalez Diaz tells the news service that the cartel is now “transporting, storing and distributing drugs from the time they leave Colombia to the time they reach the U.S. market.” Los Zetas have long been seen as encroaching on Central American territory but now it appears La Familia and the Sinaloa cartel are joining them.

· In Peru, Alan Garcia issued a 60 day state of emergency in Huánuco, Ucayali and San Martín – states where traffickers are still considered to be most active. The decree comes on the 30^th anniversary of the Shining Path’s first attack. More on the Shining Path and drugs at the Financial Times (subscription required).

· BBC Mundo asks: why is Alberto Fujimori receiving up to 180 visits per day while in prison? According to the Peruvian magazine, “Caretas,” it has do with Fujimori’s active “campaign from the carcél,” supporting his daughter, Keiko’s, presidential bid. Keiko Fujimori denies this, saying most are just loyal supporters of her father who want to “show their affection and solidarity” with him.

· At Honduras Culture and Politics, RAJ raises question about the German Friedrich Neumann Foundation providing advice on how to reform Honduras’s national police forces.

· More on the idea of a regional commission against impunity in Central America, at IPS, which says the idea has the support of many human rights organizations in the region.

· The AP has a short piece on legislative elections in the Dominican Republic which appear to have solidified the legislative base of support for current President Leonel Fernandez.

· The AP also reports on the $2 billion over five years which Haiti seeks from the Inter-American Development Bank to help rebuild its education system.

· And in Cuba, blogger Dania Virgen García was released from prison late last week. García, a sympathizer of the “Damas de Blanco” opposition group, had spent over two weeks in prison before her imprisonment drew international condemnation.

Lula: the Maker of (Iranian) Miracles?

Lula the miracle maker? That’s the question being asked this morning after Brazil and Turkey announced around 2am Monday (Tehran time) that a deal was close with Iran on the much-discussed issue of a nuclear fuel swapping – a process by which Iran’s existing enriched uranium is sent to a third party country to be converted into fuel for a research reactor. Al-Jazeera is now reporting that Iran has indeed signed on to the deal which “obliges” the country to “send Turkey 1.2 tons of uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)” in exchange for 120 kg of nuclear fuel for from Turkey for its research reactor.]

Here’s a recap on what may just be an historic deal: Al-Jazeera’s Gabriel Elizondo was one of the first to issue a report late last night from Sao Paulo, writing that “after 18 hours of negotiations” Brazil was “very optimistic” that a deal had been struck. Turkish delegates (among them PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who joined the Brazil-Iran talks “at the last minute”) seemed even more optimistic, telling Al-Jazeera Sunday that “Yes, a deal had been reached [with Iran].” Reuters also had an early report on the successful talks, but noted that no details were expected until sometime Monday. Upon his departure for Tehran, PM Erdogan did say, however, that the trip came about because of a new clause saying the [nuclear fuel] swap would take place in Turkey.

Early this morning, the AP’s lead says Sunday’s breakthrough “elevates a new group of mediators for the first time in the dispute over Iran's nuclear activities.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast went on state television today [Monday] in Tehran, the AP says, telling the world that, “it was agreed during the trilateral meeting of Iranian, Turkish and Brazilian leaders that Turkey will be the venue for swapping” Iran's stocks of enriched uranium for nuclear fuel rods to power a medical research reactor. The LA Times adds that within a week the Iranian foreign ministry plans to send a letter highlighting the details of the deal to the IAEA, who would then supervise the fuel swap. While “questions remain,” in the Times’ words, “if a deal comes to fruition it would mark yet another milestone in the rise of new powers challenging the domination of the West.”

Such questions extend beyond Iran as well. As the Wall Street Journal writes, “It is unclear whether Washington and allied capitals will accept the new agreement, or how the deal could affect the U.S.-led effort to further sanction the Iranian regime” through the UN Security Council. On Friday, US Sec. of State Hillary Clinton was anything but optimistic about Brazil brokering a deal with Iran, predicting Lula’s mediation would fail. To that, here’s what Lula had to say Saturday:

“It’s more difficult for someone who has nuclear weapons to ask someone not to develop nuclear weapons. It's easier for someone who does not carry nuclear weapons, like myself, to ask for that.”

Beyond the nuclear fuel issue, Brazil and Iran also signed eight memos of understanding over the weekend, related to “trade cooperation, opening direct lines of credit, technology exchange and cooperation in the energy field.” Speaking after the signing of those deals, Lula told reporters that “a new economic and commercial geography ... needs a multilateral system.” Stay tuned for more.

On to more stories over a very busy weekend:

· Staying with Brazil for a second, new poll numbers ahead of October presidential elections show Lula’s PT candidate Dilma Rouseff picking up significant ground against (and surpassing) her rival José Serra. Thirty-eight percent of Brazilian voters now favor Rouseff over Serra, who gets 35% support according to the Vox Populi poll released Saturday. An April poll showed Serra defeating Rouseff by a 34-31 margin. However, Ms. Rouseff now has company on her left-flank, as former PT environment minister-turned-Green Party activist, Marina Silva announced Sunday she too is officially in the running. At the Green Party’s convention near Rio Sunday, Silva said her presidential bid will focus on promoting sustainable economic development and combating social injustice and corruption. “We already have many of the technical answers for food, education and housing problems,” she says “what's missing is an ethical commitment.”

· Also, according to classified Federal Police intelligence reports – extracts of which were published in O Estado do Sao Paulo over the weekend – it is now believed that Colombia’s FARC has permanent bases in the Brazilian Amazon. [Brazil denied such claims in March 2007.]

· On the presidential race in Colombia, the LA Times Chris Kraul recently sat down with Antanas Mockus for an interview published this morning. Here are some highlights: responding to a question on Plan Colombia Mockus says he “would like a certain stepping back from current anti-drug policy so that Colombian society can explore all the implications of drug trafficking.” On the reason for his recent rise in the polls, Mockus points to his philosophy of “cooperation.” On Hugo Chavez, Mockus says he “respects” (but does not admire) Chavez as a leader who was “democratically elected, who was reelected democratically, and who, when he lost a referendum, was capable of recognizing it.”

· Also on Colombia, the Washington Post’s Juan Forero talks on NPR about how economic growth in Colombia has done little to end social inequalities in the country, and thus, “fuels instability.” The Wall Street Journal reports on candidate Mockus’s campaign pledge of more taxes. And Reuters highlights the changing political terrain in the country, tracking the shift from security to unemployment and corruption as top issues of concern to Colombian voters.

· Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez has announced he’s skipping the much-heralded EU-Latin America summit which begins tomorrow in Madrid [Venezuela's vice chancellor for Latin America will be attending in his place]. No explanation was given for his absence [Uruguay’s Pepe Mujica is also sitting the summit out due to exhaustion]. But a number of stories on new economic woes make one wonder if that may be behind Chavez’s decision. Venezuelan security agents raided at least four exchange houses for “selling dollars in violation of Venezuela's currency exchange rules” over the weekend -- this after Chavez promised Friday to take new action against unregulated foreign exchange activities following, what Reuters calls “the bolivar's crash against the dollar on a free-floating ‘parallel’ market.” In Chavez speak, that translates to: “The bourgeoisie have gone crazy, they want money, money and more money.” Chavez also said over the weekend he’s in the market for $1 billion in development loans from international banks and allies.

· In Mexico, the big story from the weekend is the disappearance of former PAN presidential candidate Diego Fernandez de Cevallos. Fernandez de Cevallos’s car was found, with blood stains and “signs of violence,” near his ranch in Queretaro Saturday. According to the Wall Street Journal, officials believe the PAN politician may be the victim of kidnapping (although no reports indicate who the perpetrators may be).

· The LA Times also has a report on the drug war’s new push into the northern industrial city of Monterrey – long considered Mexico’s safest and most affluent city. In a near-apocalyptic tone, Gilberto Marcos, a Monterrey industrialist says, “the tradition of a tranquil Monterrey has ended. And if Monterrey is lost, everything is lost.”

· And the Washington Post’s William Booth previews Felipe Calderon’s two-day state visit to Washington later in the week. The visit was supposed to be a “celebration” of US-Mexico anti-drug cooperation but, says the paper, it will likely now “showcase Mexico's frustration over Arizona's tough new immigration law, which Calderón has described as anti-Mexican.”

· In El Salvador, the family members of guerrilla-novelist Roque Dalton have filed a formal complaint with Salvadoran prosecutors regarding the murder of their father in 1975. According to the AP, “the complaint names former FMLN rebel leader Joaquin Villalobos, now an adviser to the Calderon government in Mexico, as well as Jorge Melendez, who serves in the current Salvadoran government as head of the civil defense office.” Dalton was killed by fellow FMLN rebels after being accused of treason.

· Time asks: who is killing Honduran journalists?

· An Al-Jazeera video report from the “lawless” Paraguay-Brazil border town of Pedro Juan Caballero looks at increased drug trafficking and violence. There’s been much made about EPP rebel activity in the area, but says one politician – recently the victim of drug violence – guerrilla activity is “child’s play” compared to the narcos.

· Finally some opinions. Jorge Castaneda in the Washington Post offers his opinion on Calderon’s upcoming Washington visit, calling for “a big idea” between Mexico and the US. It’s time, he argues, for the two countries to ‘de-narcoticize’ their relationship and “make their goal Mexico's development and transformation into a middle-class society.” That includes “building what NAFTA left out” and “reducing the development gap -- in income, welfare, technology, security, rule of law, health and education -- between Mexico and its wealthier North American partners,” Castaneda says. The Miami Herald, in an editorial, discusses Haitian elections, rejecting opposition calls for Preval to step down and calling for Haitians to “pull together” to hold “credible elections,” “preferably in November.” The New York Times also on Haiti, and the challenges of rebuilding efforts. Mary Anastasia O’Grady offers her thoughts on Venezuela’s currency policies. And while the name isn’t a recognizable one, a piece by 19-year-old Sami Kent in The Guardian on “how Hugo Chavez broke my heart” is worth a look.

The Citizen Security-Democracy-Economy Nexus

Looking a bit more at the Inter-American Human Rights Commission’s new report on citizen security in Latin America and the Caribbean reveals a pretty startling statistic: nowhere is there a higher murder rate than the region’s 25.6 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants’ average. As EFE points out that’s almost triple the European homicide rate (8.9/100,000) and over four times that of Southeast Asia (5.8/100,000). [By sub-region, the Caribbean leads the region with 30 murders/100,000, followed by South America (26) and then Central America (22)].

In the words of one of the report’s presenters, Amerigo Incalcaterra of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, even though Latin America makes up just 8% of the world population, it is the region where 40% of the world’s homicides and 66% of its kidnappings occur. Young people (age 15 to 29), the IACHR notes, stand out amongst the numbers. When taken as a group, they have a murder rate of 68.9/100,000. [Youth who are either “poor” or “middle class” are at nearly 90 homicides per 100,000].

The issue of citizen security, say the experts in charge of organizing the report, is intimately tied up with the question of both human rights and democracy. “The region’s democracies still have not been able to overcome their authoritarian legacies in the area of security policy,” remarked Paulo Sergio Pinheiro,” member of the IACHR. In a place like Central America, the situation is “catastrophic,” he said Tuesday. There “children are the ones who are paying for the incompetence in their government’s fight against organized crime.”

The nexus between organized crime and formally democratic politics is one which Brookings Kevin Casas-Zamora looks at in the new issue of Americas Quarterly. The dilemma of democratic systems coexisting with “huge illicit industries” like the drug trade, he argues, “manifests itself [in Latin America] with uncommon intensity.” According to Casas-Zamora a combination of competitive electoral politics, lax enforcement, political decentralization, and a weak political party system have all made Latin American politics more vulnerable to infiltration by organized crime.

The struggle to provide citizen security goes beyond politics though; so too is it affecting the material well-being of the region, according to the IACHR. Citizen security has surpassed unemployment as the region’s top concern, the IACHR maintains, while the economic cost of violence allegedly fluctuates somewhere between 2 and 15% of the region’s cumulative GDP. It was recently predicted by the Economic Commission for Latin America that the region would grow by 4.5% in 2010. It’s disturbing to think that at least some of that growth could be erased if citizen security is not ensured.

In other stories this morning:

· A few more reports on the issue of drug policy in the region. Professor Harold Pollack has his break-down of the disappointments and improvements in the new US drug strategy released earlier in the week, at The New Republic. Too much emphasis on fighting suppliers; underfunding; and a lack of attention to “addictive substances” are the new strategies weaknesses, he argues. Its improvements: a changing attitude toward the issue of drug policy, in general; a new way of measuring of “success”; the fact that our healthcare system will finally be involved in the issue of addiction; and more effective international collaboration efforts.

· The AP highlights the failures of the drug war, with this statistic of the day: the US has spent over $1 trillion on the drug war over the last forty years, not to mention hundreds of thousands of lives lost. And, in drug czar Gil Kerlikowske’s words, the drug problem today has, “if anything, magnified and intensified.” Via some FOIA requests, the piece also has some interesting information of exactly where that $1 trillion plus has gone over the last four decades.

· And regarding drug policy in Latin America, the Washington Office on Latin America and the Transnational Institute have released a new study on drug reforms in Ecuador – a country once considered to have some of the most punitive anti-drug laws anywhere in the region.

· In Venezuela, news that Chavez opponent and former governor, Oswaldo Alvarez Paz was released from police custody yesterday. He apparently still faces criminal charges for television remarks he made about the Venezuelan government supporting drug traffickers and the Basque separatist group, ETA, in March. Alvarez Paz will be free to live at home with his family while awaiting trial. However, he apparently cannot leave the country nor speak publicly about the case under the terms of his release. The release comes as Venezuelan security officials both moved five Colombians arrested weeks ago to a military tribunal where they will be charged as spies and arrested 19 other Colombians for illegal “tree trimming” and weapons possession. And the Economist this week has a long piece, examining Venezuela’s economic, social, and political challenges.

· Brazilian President Lula da Silva has begun his trip toward Iran, passing first through Moscow yesterday. His upcoming meeting with Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the subject of talks with the Russians, who are apparently backing Lula’s attempt to mediate on the matter, according to the BBC. Meanwhile, in the US, Reuters says a senior State Dept. official believes Lula’s attempt at mediation “may be the last chance to engage Iran” over the nuclear issue. If Tehran does not change its stance following Lula's visit “countries like Brazil, Turkey and others on the [security] council should very definitely draw conclusions from that,” the official tells the wire service.

· The Nation’s Christian Parenti has a new investigative piece, offering a critical look at the “pacification” program Brazilian security forces are trying to implement in Rio’s favelas ahead of the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics.

· In Mexico, the AP reports that PAN mayoral candidate, Jose Mario Guajardo, was killed by gunmen in Tamaulipas Thursday. Also, the LA Times and Washington Post both report on the significant setbacks that are accompanying Mexico’s idea of a “national cell phone registry.” The program was instituted as a means of cracking down on organized crime, particularly “virtual kidnappings,” but many Mexicans are refusing to turn over their data because they simply do not trust what the government might do with it. “The National Mobile-Phone User Registry has been declared a fiasco,” says the Post -- and “thousands mocked the government, registering their mobile phones under the names of celebrities, prominent politicians and law enforcement officials.”

· The Wall Street Journal looks at the textile industry and Haiti, saying the government is making the industry a “centerpiece” of its recovery.

· Finally, news that the oft-criticized UN Human Rights Council got two new Latin American members this week. Ecuador and Guatemala will take their seats on the UN body this year.

IACHR Releases New Citizen Security Report

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) has released a new report on citizen security and human rights in Latin America – part of an attempt in, the commission’s words, “to change the focus of attention from repression to prevention of crime and violence.” Latin America, as a region, continues to struggle with some of the highest rates of crime and violence in the world, making citizen security – defined as a condition in which individuals live free from the violence practiced by State and non-state actors -- “one of society's foremost demands toward State authorities.”

But policies implemented by various governments to address the matter have, “in general terms, diverged from international human rights standards.” Authorities, the commission says, often resorting “to the illegal and arbitrary use of force in the name of crime prevention and control.” Among the IACHR’s recommendations to correct this problem: a renewed commitment to constructing public policies that focus on “prevention, deterrence and, when necessary, legitimate suppression of violent and criminal conduct, based on the guidelines and within the limits established by human rights standards and principles.”

Those present for the report’s release in Argentina included Paulo Pinheiro, member of the IACHR and the individual responsible for the report’s publication; Santiago Cantón, IACHR executive secretary; Amerigo Incalcaterra of the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR); Gastón Chillier, executive director of the Argentina-based Centro de Estudios Legales y Sociales (CELS); and Argentine national deputy, Griselda Baldata.

The report’s publication was supported financially by UNICEF, OHCHR, the Italian government, and the Open Society Institute.

To other stories:

· In other inter-American news, OAS Sec. General, José Miguel Insulza spoke at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC on Tuesday. EFE highlights Insulza’s call for new mechanisms that might prevent a future crisis like the one which broke out in Honduras last June. Multilateralism “has its limits,” said Insulza, adding that one of his desires is that the OAS be allowed to visit any country in the region without being granted an invitation before-hand. Striking a balance between democracy and non-intervention, he continued, remains a principal challenge before the inter-American body. Bloggings by Boz also has a good set of notes from the Insulza event that are worth a look. He says Insulza highlighted three areas around which he hopes the OAS will focus its work in coming years, so as to avoid overreach. Those include: 1) Protection of democracy 2) Fighting poverty/inequality 3) Promoting citizen security. Also some interesting words from Insulza about his belief that ensuring fair and clean elections continue is the OAS’s foremost concern when talking about democracy protection in the region.

· Nicaragua is another country which was brought up during Insulza’s discussion of democratic backsliding in the region. According to ACAN-EFE, the Carter Center arrived in Managua this week to meet with both members of the governing FLSN and the opposition on that issue. The mission’s goal: explore the facets of the current institutional face-off between the two groups in hopes of beginning some sort of dialogue. Also this morning the AP reports on new tensions at the non-state level in the country, as different student groups confronted one another with homemade mortars, sticks, and stones at the National University. The conflict at the university comes out of a disagreement over the election of a new university administration.

· Staying at the level of international politics, US Sec. of State Hillary Clinton also spoke on Latin America yesterday, addressing the Council of Americas’ 40^th annual meeting in Washington DC. Her words were particularly directed at the region’s economic performance, and the issue of trade and business, more specifically. “This hemisphere, particularly Latin America, is doing better than average if you look at the world as a whole,” she remarked. Ms. Clinton also emphasized the Obama administration’s support for free trade deals with Colombia and Panama; its commitment to “energy security” and the development of new green energy sources in the hemisphere; the United States’ on-going support for inter-regional cooperation on security issues; and immigration. Here’s what could be considered Ms. Clinton’s take-away closing remark:

“We are really trying to work with governments and the private sector to increase economic opportunity. But this must be at the core of everything we do. We cannot be successful and produce the kind of sustainable growth and progress without economic opportunity being more broadly spread.”

· Three more articles today look at Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s upcoming trip to Iran – and the prospect of Lula serving as a new mediator on the nuclear issue there. Key conclusions here from each piece. In World Politics Review, Sean Goforth highlights the positive:

“Brazilian mediation is unlikely to prove decisive -- or satisfactory -- to the United States, Britain, or France. However, in the long run, Brazil's willingness to play such a prominent role in world affairs may bode well for Western governments. As the world transitions into an ‘Asian century’ or the ‘BRIC era,’ there should be some consolation in knowing that a democratic Brazil is willing to make its presence felt, not only in the global economy, but also in global politics.”

In Foreign Policy, Paulo Sotero, has the critique with a quote from former Brazilian Foreign Minister and Lula critic Luis Felipe Lampeira:

“It is like the person who crosses the street on purpose to step on a banana peel on the opposite sidewalk.”

And the New America Foundation’s global strategist Steve Clemons at the Washington Note has a piece I recommend reading in-full, examining the Iran issue in the context of Lula’s attempt to make Brazil an “indispensable nation:”

“This summitry represents a big gamble by Brazil's impressive President -- and one hopes that he understands that his nation's rightful place as a key pillar of emerging international stakeholders depends on getting nations like Iran to move beyond their past, to get beyond paranoia, and to constructively negotiate about strategic factors that divide Iran from the rest of the world.”

· The Wall Street Journal has a feature piece on the Brazilian Amazon … and the invasion of new shopping malls there-in.

· In Chile, the government of Sebastian Pinera faced its first round of student protests yesterday as some 4000 young people turned out to demonstrate against funding inadequacies in the Chilean education system.

· The Pakistani man arrested at the US embassy in Santiago is still being held by authorities there, although there appears to be no direct link to the Times Square incident from last week.

· The Center for Democracy in the Americas announces that renowned Cuban musician Silvio Rodriguez has been granted a visa by the US government to perform in the US. Rodriguez had been considered a persona non-grata for years.

· AFP says a pact has been signed between the Bolivian government and striking agricultural workers in Caranavi.

· A new Just the Facts podcast has Adam Isacson talking with WOLA’s John Walsh about the new US drug strategy released earlier in the week.

· Also from Just the Facts, a an open letter from four DC-based organizations who work on human rights issues in Colombia, asking Colombia’s presidential candidates to clarify their positions on issues of rights and security.

· Andres Oppenheimer in the Miami Herald says Cubans are being granted too much power within the Venezuelan military and government. “Venezuela's growing alliance with Cuba,” he argues, (‘Venecuba,’ or ‘Cubazuela,’ depending on which country you believe has the upper hand) is a marriage of convenience that may backfire for Chávez.”

· And finally an interesting note about the popularity of South America’s leaders. According to a piece in Argentina’s La Nación, the president’s in the region have the highest levels of domestic approval anywhere in the world. Lula tops the rankings. And the piece’s author, Rosendo Fraga, hypothesizes that their popularity comes from the fact that so many of the region’s leaders are not professional politicians. A trade unionist in Brazil, an indigenous leader in Bolivia, a doctor then businessman in Chile – all have made “South America the region in the world with the fewest professional politicians as president.”