Shadows of Doubt Remain in Honduras: Protest Crackdown, Congress Delays

A day after de facto President Roberto Micheletti indicated a possible willingness to negotiate the return of Manuel Zelaya to a finish out his presidential term, the Honduran Congress delayed a vote on an amnesty bill that would be a sticking point for any such deal. Moreover, security forces in the country cracked down on pro-Zelaya protestors, casting a shadow over what the Miami Herald calls yesterday’s “ray of hope.” The AP adds that Zelaya also met with the U.S. ambassador to Honduras, in Nicaragua, but left the meeting disappointed, with his foreign minister, Patricia Rodas, remarking that “nothing new came out of it.” “They (the U.S. diplomats) didn't come with a change, nor any new proposal,” said Rodas. The violent crackdown on Zelaya backers was perhaps the darkest moment of yesterday, however. While Zelaya backers blocked a main highway into Tegucigalpa, police used night sticks and tear gas to disperse the protestors. At least 25 were injured—one with a gunshot wound to the head—and 88 were arrested, according to the AP. And protestors took out their anger on the Red Cross, illustrating just how tense feelings are on both sides. Reuters take on Thursday’s events is even more grim. The wire service leads by writing “The de facto Honduran government insisted Thursday that it would not allow ousted President Manuel Zelaya to return to office, dampening hopes of a deal to end a political crisis after last month's coup.” The report adds that Micheletti himself says he will not allow Zelaya back into power, contradicting reports yesterday that he had indicated a willingness to allow for this. “I've clearly said it before and I say it again, if there is a solution where I have to step down I will do it willingly, but I cannot allow Zelaya to return as president,” the de facto leader told reporters Thursday. And again Reuters writes that the former IDB chief, Uruguayan Enrique Iglesias, is being invited by the Micheletti to the country to “rekindle negotiations.” All signs would point toward this being a means of bringing intransigent business sectors into some forum for discussion over the crisis. Finally, Bloomberg says Zelaya may be overstaying his welcome in Nicaragua. The head of that country’s largest opposition party is repeating calls for Zelaya to leave his country, saying there is risk of armed conflict with Honduras because of his presence and citing drops in trade as primary reasons.

Also today, the Washington Post reports on the issue of extraditing drug traffickers in Colombia. Juan Forero writes that Colombian president Alvaro Uribe has complied with hundreds of extradition requests for drug kingpins. Indeed, Colombia extradites about four drug suspects per week to the U.S., says Forero, but more recently the extradition of what he calls “small to mid level suspects has become more the rule than the exception.” This is leading a number of defense lawyers, analysts, and even former U.S. ambassador to Colombia, Myles Frechette, to question the efficacy of the current extradition system. It’s expensive they say and also may be suggesting that Colombia’s own justice system remains incapable of handling such cases, despite marked improvements in recent years. Others disagree, however. A high ranking official in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of NY, for example, tells the WP that if extradition did not exist, “we'd be severely hamstrung in our ability to stop narcotics trafficking.”

Three reports on Venezuela this morning look at the media, kidnapping, and the economy. First, in the Miami Herald, news that the Venezuelan National Assembly began discussion of a bill that could send individuals to prison for up to four years for spreading information that might be seen as inciting violence or could “affect Venezuela’s mental health.” The so-called Special Law Against Media Crimes appears to not only focus on the directors of private media operations as the bill’s text reads “every person who expresses himself through any communications medium, whether it be print, television, radio or any other nature.” Moreover, the paper writes that “media crimes” include “actions or omissions” that threaten “the social peace, the security and independence of the nation, the public order, the stability of the institutions of state, the public mental or moral health by generating a feeling of impunity or insecurity.” The AP reports from Caracas on a series of protests against insecurity in the country, particularly the recent spike in kidnappings in various parts of Venezuela. The AP writes that “Rampant crime is a top concern among Venezuelans. Mexico is the only country in Latin America with more kidnappings, according to Clayton Consultants, a crisis-management firm based in Herndon, Virginia. Lack of trust in law enforcement is another problem.” And the LA Times has an interesting report on home building in Venezuela. A new measure put into effect by the Chavez government is giving large refunds to home buyers. According to the LAT’s Chris Kraul home builders are having to give back inflation charges accrued over the period of home construction. One home builder says that this could bankrupt his business as inflation continues to rise. But others say the home building industry in the country has abused home buyers. “Undoubtedly, the construction companies need to recoup cost increases, but with little control over the process, some companies have also used the system to increase profits,” says Professor Miguel Tinker-Salas.

In editorials this morning, the Miami Herald calls on the Obama administration to step up efforts to find a resolution to the Honduran crisis but emphasizes that Zelaya’s return must be a conditioned one. “Mr. Zelaya, to be sure, is no friend of the United States, but this dispute is not about him. It is about sticking to constitutional procedures and keeping the military out of politics -- a bad habit of long standing that should not be indulged by those who claim to have Honduras' best interests in mind…Mr. Micheletti and his cohorts are right to insist that any deal for Mr. Zelaya's return should be conditioned on an enforceable understanding that he will not try to prolong his tenure. He should be in office just long enough to transfer power to the next constitutionally elected president and not one day longer,” the paper argues. And the Washington Post calls for new State Department action against Venezuela after Colombian claims that it found Venezuelan weaponry in the hands of FARC rebels this week. “The State Department is busy applying sanctions to members of Honduras's de facto government, which is guilty of deposing one of Mr. Chávez's clients and would-be emulators. Perhaps soon it can turn its attention to those in the hemisphere who have been caught trying to overturn a democratic government by supplying terrorists with advanced weapons,” writes the Post.

Lastly this morning, in a bizarre news story, animal rights defenders are smiling in Bolivia. The country recently passed new legislation that prohibits the use of animals in the circus. The Bolivian ban, reports the AP, is the first in the world that covers both non-domestic and domestic animals.

Micheletti Says He Supports Terms of "San Jose Accord"

The de facto leader of the Honduran government, Roberto Micheletti, has indicated his willingness to allow the reinstatement of ousted President Manuel Zelaya under a compromise agreement, reports the New York Times’ Ginger Thompson this morning. On Wednesday Mr. Micheletti apparently telephoned mediator Oscar Arias to say that he would support the terms of an agreement that the Costa Rican president has put forward, now known as the “San José Accord.” Among its 12 points is the return of Mr. Zelaya to the presidency, be it with “significantly limited powers. Nevertheless, opposition to Zelaya’s return remained strong among certain sectors of the coup government, leading Micheletti to request that an international envoy be sent to “stem the fierce opposition.” One potential figure being discussed is former IDB chief, Uruguayan Enrique V. Iglesias who currently serves as the head of the Secretaría General Iberoamericana in Madrid. But Arias also insisted that international pressure on the Honduran regime should continue as no official deal had yet been struck. Under the terms of the “San José Accord” presidential elections would also be moved up one month, from November to October and a general amnesty for “political offenses” would go into effect until after Zelaya leaves office. It is not yet clear, however, how “political offenses” will be determined. And, moreover, Zelaya, who earlier supported the 12 point plan, will now have to re-respond it would seem. In a side story, two Venezuelan diplomats remained held up inside their embassy in Tegucigalpa, refusing to leave after the de facto government expelled them last week. Zelaya supporters blocked the entry to the embassy to prevent any forcible entry by Honduran security forces. And on the opinion pages of the Miami Herald Marifeli Perez-Stable calls for an end to the “coup stalemate.” She writes that the Honduran coup, while it should be called such, is distinct from the bloody takeovers by the military during the 1970s. Interestingly, she mentions issues of poverty and an intransigent Honduran elite political/economic class as largely to blame for creating the environment which led to the June ouster.

Both the Washington Post and LA Times report this morning on the killing of a Mexican radio journalist in the Acapulco late Tuesday night. Juan Daniel Martinez’s body was found “beaten, gagged, and partially buried” on Wednesday in the state of Guerrero, writes the WP. He covered local issues, particularly crime, on his radio show, but no suspects have yet been apprehended. Additionally, as the LA Times reports, a separate killing took the life of a police commander and his family, including his four children. This murder took place in Ciudad Juarez where the officer had been investigating the murder of another journalist, was murdered in November. And the AP writes that U.S. drug czar Gil Kerlikowske, speaking in Mexico this week, said the U.S. will adopt a “wait and see” approach toward a new Mexican drug law that decriminalizing possession of small amounts of drugs, including marijuana, cocaine, and heroin. “I guess if I was looking at it strictly from our viewpoint, the use of the government as a strong sanction is often pretty helpful in getting people into treatment. If the sanction becomes completely nonexistent I think that would be a concern, but I actually didn't read quite that level of de-facto (decriminalization) in the law,” Kerlikowske said. In 2006, the U.S. strongly opposed a similar decriminalization law put forward under the Vicente Fox administration.

Also on drugs this morning, the New York Times writes from Buenos Aires, Argentina where reporter Alexi Barrionuevo examines “paco” and poverty in Argentine villas. Paco, a very low quality, smokeable drug made from cocaine residue mixed with chemicals, including rat poison at times, has been called the “scourge of the poor” by Argentine politicians. And, according to Barrionuevo, it is the greatest social challenge facing villas like Oculta, on the outskirts of Buenos Aires. It only arrived in Argentina in 2003 as a much cheaper alternative to cocaine, but “paco also wreaks havoc on the appetites of users, who literally die from not eating.” And, moreover, there is yet no clear treatment regimen that breaks addiction.

In other news, Reuters says Colombia will not cut trade with Venezuela, one day after Hugo Chavez’s put the two countries’ diplomatic relations on freeze. The OAS’s Sec. General, José Miguel Insulza, meanwhile, urged Chavez not to break of diplomatic relations after anti-tank weapons from Venezuela were allegedly found in the hands of FARC guerrillas. “I wish that a dialogue can be started to allow both sides discussing their differences in a fraternal environment, which is how differences should be dealt with between two fellow countries,” Insulza remarked on Wednesday. A Miami Herald editorial says Chavez’s “temper tantrums” are not fooling anyone, however. “The connections between the Chávez government and the FARC have been clear ever since the discovery of documents taken from guerrilla computers last year,” argues the paper.

In news that will undoubtedly affect Latin America in the coming years, the Wall Street Journal reports that the IMF will pump more money into low-income countries over the next five years. Some $17 billion are expected to be loaned out under “favorable terms” which include no interest through 2011. The IMF’s executive board also exceeded the calls of the G20 and agreed to loan out $8 billion over the next two years alone.

Finally today, the Miami Herald reports on Yoani Sánchez, the Cuban blogger whose weblog “Generación Y” was honored by Columbia University this week. Sanchez won one of four Cabot awards given out for excellence in reporting on Latin America and the Caribbean. An excerpt from her blog is reprinted here in the MH. She writes “I think I will use the prestige and protection that the Cabot Prize brings with it to continue to grow the Cuban blogosphere. . . . As I don't plan to wait to be allowed to open a school of digital journalism in order to realize this project, I will begin it with bureaucratic and legal formality.”

U.S. Visas of Four Coup Regime Members Revoked

Four members of the coup government in Honduras had their U.S. visas revoked on Tuesday, the latest in a string of U.S. efforts to find a negotiated reinstatement of ousted President Mel Zelaya. At a State Dept. briefing, spokesman Ian Kelly did not indicate which specific leaders lost their visas but did say those of all members of the de facto government are under review. There are reports, however, that the new president of the National Congress, Jose Alfredo Saavedra, and the judge who signed Zelaya’s arrest order one month ago, Tomas Arita Valle, are among those who have been targeted. This according to the Washington Post while Al Jazeera reports that the country’s human rights ombudsman, Ramon Custodio, and its de facto defense minister, Adolfo Lionel Sevilla, are also among those who have had their travel privileges stripped. In Nicaragua, Zelaya praised the State Dept.’s actions. “This is a coup that has been dead from the start, so they will have to abandon their position of intransigence in the coming hours,” he remarked to reporters. Meanwhile, Zelaya also called for a new round of protests from his Nicaraguan camp on Tuesday to commemorate one month since the coup d’etat forced him from power. While in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa, members of the de facto regime said the latest actions would not push them to change their positions. “It's part of the international community's incomprehension of what is happening in Honduras. It's not definitive and it will not have major consequences for the future of Honduras,” Mr. Micheletti’s deputy foreign minister told the AP. The LA Times points out that while $18.5 million in U.S. military aid to Honduras has been cut off, the $180 million in development aid that the country receives each year from the U.S. has not yet been touched. However, as reported in the Miami Herald, the coup has had a significant economic impact on Honduran society, and beyond. The paper reports on some 107 cargo trucks that sit on the Nicaraguan side of the Nicaraguan-Honduran border. This spells economic trouble not only for goods headed to Honduras from its Southern neighbors, but also for Nicaraguan companies that use Honduras as a transit point for goods headed north to Mexico and the United States.

In other news, Venezuela also pulled its top envoy from Colombia on Tuesday, creating yet another cross-border dispute between two Latin American neighbors. President Hugo Chávez is threatening to stop Colombian imports as well after the Colombian government says it found anti-tank weaponry from Venezuela in the possession of FARC rebels. Venezuela and Colombia share some $6 billion in trade annually. Chávez also raised the possibility of shutting down a major gas pipeline that transports between 5.7 and 8.5 million cubic feet of gas from Colombia to Venezuela each day. And while tensions between the two neighbors are many years in the making, the most recent spat may be more long-lasting than before, say some analysts. “Accusations against Venezuela's government have been accumulating: drug trafficking, arms trafficking and connections to Colombian guerrillas. Venezuela has put itself in the eye of the hurricane,” says Elsa Cardoso of the Central University of Venezuela.

Also on Venezuela this morning, a piece by Simon Romero in the New York Times examines the struggle over cacao production in the country. The bean is sought after by Europeans and Americans as the raw ingredient for chocolate and the country produces about 1% of the world’s total cacao output. However, the crop is increasingly seen by the Chávez government as a “luxury product,” leading to intense labor inspections and investigations into land violations, complain some Venezuelan farmers.

And nearly 70 Haitians, attempting to migrate from the country in a large vessel, remained missing off the Turks and Caicos Islands yesterday as search teams vowed to continue their mission in the daylight. At least 15 were reported dead when the boat carrying the group capsized near a reef in the Caribbean.

Calderon's Drug War Under Intense Heat in Mexico

There are new calls for Mexican President Felipe Calderon to change direction in his country’s fight against violent drug cartels, the Washington Post reports this morning. Many, even within the president’s own party, are coming out against him, says today’s piece, arguing that an overreliance on the “blunt force of the military” has promoted “violence and lawlessness” around the country. Interestingly, some U.S. and Mexican officials are increasingly drawing comparisons with the conflict in Colombia where the U.S. spent $6 billion between 2000 and 2006 to try to halt the influence of powerful trafficking groups. “The question is whether the country can withstand another three years of this, with violence that undermines the credibility of the government,” says Carlos Flores of Mexico’s Center for Investigations and Advanced Studies in Social Anthropology. Supporters of President Calderon’s military strategy, however, have complained that critics have yet to put forward a reasonable alternative. In particular, Calderon’s interior minister, Fernando Gomez Mont, insisted that the president’s plan was succeeding in protecting innocent victims of a drug war that has taken some 12,000 lives over just 2 ½ years. But across the country, the fight is more and more seen as simply Calderon’s initiative and some close to him say he now feels more alone on the matter than ever. Indeed, as the Post reports, the cover of the news magazine Proceso this week featured a photo of 12 federal agents recently murdered by cartel gangs, their dead bodies piled up, beneath the headline: “Calderón's War.” Meanwhile, there was also an opinion piece in the Post that I missed yesterday on Mexico, elections, and the drug war. Ruben Navarrette writes that the PRI won legislative elections earlier this month, promising “security,” which he calls code for “stopping the fight against drug cartels.” He argues that as Mexican support for Calderon’s offensive dwindles, it will become ever more important that the U.S. stand by Mexico with continued counter-narcotics/military aid through the Mérida Initiative.

From Honduras, there are new signs that the de facto regime in Tegucigalpa may simply be stalling until scheduled elections take place this fall. In an interview with the AP, Roberto Micheletti’s foreign minister, Carlos Lopez, told the news agency that Zelaya would likely lose relevance as a political figure in the country as soon as campaigning begins. The foreign minister also was optimistic that the international community would see elections held under the current circumstances as legitimate, although there are few public statements from international leaders supporting this belief. Meanwhile, Zelaya remained camped out near the Nicaraguan border as hundreds of supporters crossed from Honduras to join him. The AP says this group largely included poor farmers, teachers, and street activists while the New York Times says the group of Zelaya supporters surround their leader in camps where they are “eating chicken dinners provided by Nicaraguan aid groups” and “listening to revolutionary songs.” The Honduran military eventually closed down the border yesterday, prohibiting crossings others who had arrived to join the ousted president. In Tegucigalpa, Reuters writes that the Honduran Congress delayed a vote on whether or not it believed Zelaya could return to the country under a power sharing agreement, saying the matter was a “constitutional” one for the Supreme Court to decide. A congressional committee, however, was formed to study various elements of Costa Rican President Oscar Arias’s proposal. It is expected to report on Thursday.

Also this morning, intense questions from the government of Sweden about how Swedish-made anti-tank rocket launchers, sold to Venezuela, have ended up in the hands of FARC rebels in Colombia. The discovery of the weapons appears to have strengthened Colombia’s claim that the Venezuelan government has provided weaponry to the FARC. In the wake of U.S. plans to move counter-narcotics operations to military bases in Colombia, the news will likely make relations between the two country even more tense. The LA Times’ Chris Kraul adds to the reporting saying Venezuela is notorious for “seepage” by corrupt officers, who resell arms and munitions as contraband.

On Haiti, as many as 85 Haitians are missing today after their boat capsized off the Turks and Caicos Islands, writes the Wall Street Journal. Over 100 survivors were found by the U.S. Coast Guard, along with two bodies, near a reef which the large vessel apparently crashed into. In Haiti itself, the Miami Herald has a story today saying the country is showing signs of progress, a year after powerful storms destroyed significant portions of Haiti’s infrastructure. As the Inter-American Development Bank’s president, Claudio Moreno, visited the French-Caribbean country, the MH writes: “In a country where promises are broken and donor contracts take years to execute, the $1.2 million Mariani Market on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince illustrates the steady pockets of progress being made in this fragile Caribbean nation.” In the last three weeks Haiti has had $1.2 billion in foreign debt erased, the U.S. and Canada have revised travel warnings to the country, and Bill Clinton, Moreno, and development specialist Jeffrey Sachs have all visited the island.

New findings by Amnesty International on women’s issues in Nicaragua show that a ban on abortion instituted in late 2006 is responsible for rising deaths among pregnant women and girls in the country. The Central American country is currently part of the 3% of world nations that do not allow abortion under any circumstances.

And two notes on Cuba this morning. First, the New York Times reports that the U.S. Interests Section in Havana has turned off the billboard message board installed in 2006. “We believe that the billboard was really not effective as a means of delivering information to the Cuban people,” the State Department spokesman, Ian Kelly, said Monday. Kelly also noted that the Cuban government had removed some of its negative billboards around the mission earlier this year, which he said the United States viewed as “a positive gesture.” Finally, the Wall Street Journal writes that U.S. airports are lobbying the government to expand the ports of entry for flights going to and from Cuba. Currently Miami, Los Angeles, and New York are the only three cities that service the island, following relaxation in family travel a few months ago.

Potential Rift within the Military Gives Hope of New Negotiations in Honduras

Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has set up camp in the Nicaraguan border town of Ocotal, telling reporters he will stay there for the next week with many Honduran supporters who have joined him. Meanwhile, the Honduran military posted a statement on their website over the weekend, indicating their support for a mediated resolution to the current crisis. Specifically, the statement indicated support within the military for returning Zelaya to power under a power-sharing agreement, writes the AP. Zelaya addressed the communiqué on Sunday, saying it shows the growing divisions among various factions who had supported his ouster nearly a month ago. The New York Times reported Sunday that the communiqué had been drafted after “days of talks between mid-level Honduran military officers and American congressional aides,” although no specific names have been mentioned. On this same front, Zelaya on Sunday continued to ask the U.S. for stronger action against the coup government of Roberto Micheletti, declaring that he “wanted to know what the United States’ real position is on the coup.” These developments come after Zelaya crossed briefly into Honduran territory on Friday. Soldiers did not attempt to arrest him, but Zelaya apparently feared his supporters would be attacked by security forces if he ventured any further into the country. Honduran courts still maintain that Zelaya will be arrested if he returns to his home country, and an independent prosecutor has issued an arrest order for the deposed leader, which is supported by the country’s high court, charging Zelaya with four constitutional crimes, including treason. Such crimes carry combined penalties of up to 43 years in prison, says an AP report. The coup government is “just throwing a lot of stuff at the wall to see what sticks to justify what happened,” says Christopher Sabatini of the New York-based Americas Society. Meanwhile there were new reports of human rights violations against Zelaya supporters in Honduras. A young man was found stabbed to death, with his body dropped near the border town of El Paraíso, bringing the number of documented killings to at least six, with two likely disappearances, according to those reporting in the country. The police and military have rejected involvement in the killings. For weekend opinions on the Honduran crisis, the Wall Street Journal runs a piece by Roberto Micheletti himself. The de facto President writes: “The worst distortion [in the media] is the repetition of the false statement that Mr. Zelaya was removed from office by the military and for being a ‘reformer.’ The truth is that he was removed by a democratically elected civilian government because the independent judicial and legislative branches of our government found that he had violated our laws and constitution.” Micheletti adds that the way forward is to work through Oscar Arias to find a solution to the crisis and even says forming a truth commission to investigate all events of the past months would be useful. In the Washington Post, an opinion by Edward Schumacher-Matos, strongly criticizes OAS Sec. General José Miguel Insulza for his handling of the Honduran crisis, going so far as to say he should lose his job over the matter. He writes that Insulza “has shown no respect for its constitution or institutions. He has been tone-deaf to the need for trust and legitimacy for democracy to work.” And also in the WSJ, columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady looks at Obama’s Chief Counsel, Greg Craig, as someone that president may be relying on for Latin American policy help inside the White House as the Honduran crisis continues.

In other stories today, the New York Times, like the WP last week, looks at the danger that Mormon communities in Northern Mexico have come under recently, particularly after the murder of two Mormons with U.S. citizenship in the state of Chihuahua.

The NYT’s Alexi Barrionuevo reports from Asunción, Paraguay, where Paraguay and Brazil struck a new deal on the enormous Itaipú dam which the two countries share. Paraguay’s Fernando Lugo has long been attempting to renegotiate the dam treaty and finally succeeded over the weekend as Brazil’s Lula da Silva pledged to triple the profits that Paraguay currently receives from the megaproject. The regional implications of the new treaty terms are huge, say many analysts. “The Brazilians are going to do anything they can to shore up the moderate or democratic left in Latin America. They are quite clearly hoping that Lugo will move in the direction of staying with the Brazilians,” says Johns Hopkins’ Riordan Roett.

The LA Times reports on the state of the opposition in Venezuela who continue to claim that their resources and duties are being usurped by President Hugo Chávez and the national government. One governor in Miranda state says reductions in revenue sharing agreements have cut state income by as much as 40%. And proposed legislation within the Chávez-led National Assembly is currently being considered which would restrict the representation of party coalitions, a measure that would favor Chavez's PSUV party. Some believe the legislation to be unconstitutional as it could reduce minority representation in the National Assembly unless opposition parties unite. In mid-July, Chavez described opposition governors as “enemies of the people” and threatened to prosecute them for allegedly raising paramilitary armies. Also on Venezuela, Spike Lee spoke in the country over the weekend, defending the right to free speech. While not specifically referring to President Chávez’s encroachments on freedom of the press, the well-known movie director said there “no circumstances” under which the news media should be silenced. Lee was in the country to screen his 1989 film “Do the Right Thing.”

In Colombia, new clashes on Saturday between the military and FARC guerillas left 16 rebels and at least 1 security officer dead in the Southern department of Meta.

Finally, a last opinion this morning. MH columnist Andres Oppenheimer this weekend writes of Israel’s attempt to “fortify” its presence in Latin America. Israel’s Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, is currently on a 10 day tour of the region, visiting Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Colombia. The visit is the first by an Israeli Foreign Minister in 23 years. And, according to Israeli officials, the trip is specifically “aimed at strengthening Israel's relations with the region and countering Iran's growing influence in Latin America.”

Zelaya Prepares for Border Crossing, Now Expected to Occur Saturday

Manuel Zelaya left Managua, Nicaragua on Thursday, headed for the Honduran border. He arrived in the town of Esteli, about 25 miles south of the frontier and has set up what the AP calls his “base” in a hotel there, apparently planning his strategy for reclaiming the presidency with close aides. He now says he will attempt to reenter Honduras on Saturday with a group of supporters, according to a New York Times briefing, telling the Honduran military to not “aim your rifles at the representative of the people or at the people” themselves. The Defense Ministry, however, issued another statement saying it cannot be responsible for the security of Zelaya if he chooses to return. “We cannot be responsible for the security of people who, to foment general violence in the country, are capable of having their own sympathizers attack them,” they said Thursday. Meanwhile, along the Honduran-Nicaraguan border crossing of Las Manos, the Miami Herald reports that riot police “stood shield to shield and more than a dozen armed police patrolled” the area. A number of buses were stopped as the approached the border on the Honduran side, some filled with Zelaya supports who continued the journey to the border crossing on foot to await their deposed president’s return. While protests against the coup regime have continued with roadblocks throughout much of the country, there were some worries that enthusiasm for a Zelaya returning might be waning. According the Herald, “protest organizers were counting on the powerful teachers union to bolster Thursday's national strike, but many schools in southern Honduras were open and operating normally.” The LA Times adds in its coverage of the situation that a curfew of 6pm has been reinstated by the government along the border in an attempt to discourage crowds from amassing there. A less restrictive curfew remains in effect in other parts of the country. And, finally, I recommend reading Adam Isacson’s opinion piece on the situation in Honduras which can be found at Open Democracy.net. He lays out particularly well the various options for the U.S. government and looks at what might be next for Honduras. Both Narco News and Honduras Resists also have very detailed reports on events on the ground in Honduras, as they develop.

The Washington Post writes in an editorial this morning about a meeting held earlier in the week between OAS Sec. General José Miguel Insulza and three elected Venezuelan leaders, including Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma and two state governors. All three are opposition figures who, writes the paper’s editorial board, have been stripped of their control over key services and duties by President Hugo Chávez. The paper criticizes Mr. Insulza and the OAS for saying the inter-American body can do little to prevent the actions of Mr. Chávez while at the same time the organization continues vigorously to advocate for the return of Manuel Zelaya, a Chávez ally, in Honduras. The WP’s conclusion from all of this: “The weakness of the Democratic Charter is that it protects presidents from undemocratic assault but does not readily allow OAS intervention in cases where the executive himself is responsible for violating the constitutional order -- as Mr. Zelaya did before his ouster. The Honduras crisis provides an opportunity for the Obama administration to seek changes in those rules.”

And the LA Times asks on its editorial pages today, “Is Mexico under Attack by its military?” Citing recent reports of serious human rights violations committed by the army, the paper questions whether or not the Obama administration should change its policy for supporting security forces in the country. The LAT writes that “the army is one of the few respected state institutions in Mexico, but the growing list of allegations against it undermines its credibility -- and potentially its success.” In particular, the military has been unable or unwilling to prosecute individuals among its ranks for their criminal abuses, say many advocacy groups. The paper agrees and follows Human Rights Watch and others in arguing: “No country should have an army that is above the law, a condition that's poisonous to democracy. But until Mexico acts, the United States should make the case for justice by trimming a symbolic 15% from its aid package.”

Negotiations in Honduras Appear to be Over, No Resolution Found

Yet another proposal was put forward by negotiators in Costa Rica on Wednesday, and yet again a compromise on the Honduran crisis could not be reached. The Miami Herald has coverage of these “last-ditch crisis talks,” writing that the 11-point “San José Proposal,” put together by Costa Rica’s Oscar Arias, did not differ significantly from the 7-point plan he forwarded over the weekend. However, once again, de facto leader Roberto Micheletti maintained his position that deposed President Mel Zelaya would never be allowed back to the country as president and the Honduran courts held steadfast to their view that they will not offer Zelaya any form of amnesty, “effectively killing the deal,” in the paper’s words. Following Wednesday’s proposal, Micheletti asked for more time to put together yet another proposal while Zelaya’s team of negotiators said they had had enough, walking away from the table. The LA Times has a slightly different take, focusing on this last part of Wednesday’s talks by saying Zelaya walked away from negotiations because he refused to accept conditions on his return to Honduras. The paper adds that the San José Proposal also included provisions to lift economic and political sanctions imposed on Honduras by some countries after the coup. Meanwhile, on the streets of Honduras, tens of thousands of pro-coup backers came out to support the government of Roberto Micheletti. Dressed in white and chanting “It wasn’t a coup,” many said they were there to “defend democracy and tell the international community that they do not want their interference.” For his part, Mel Zelaya remained in Nicaragua but has pledged to move to the Nicaragua-Honduras border today and cross over tomorrow. “I will go back unarmed, pacifically so that Honduras can return to peace and tranquility. “My wife and kids will accompany me and the military will be responsible for any harm,” Zelaya told reporters at a news conference yesterday in Managua. Offering opinions on the events as they unfold, Andres Oppenheimer writes in the Miami Herald that the Honduran crisis is creating a fierce partisan split on Latin American policy in Washington, D.C. Senator Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) is now holding up the confirmation of new U.S. Amb. to Brazil, Tom Shannon, and Asst. Sec. of State, Arturo Valenzuela over the Obama handling of the Honduras situation. According to Oppenheimer sources, “the 3-week-old conflict in Honduras could make it difficult to come up with bipartisan U.S. policies on Latin America.” Eduardo Gamarra and Diana Prado provide very interesting poll numbers on Zelaya and opinions of democracy from the last few years in Honduras, which seem to show the deposed leader having very high levels of approval throughout his tenure, something I, for one, was unaware of. “In 2006, his approval rating was 50 percent; in 2007, it was 61 percent; in 2008 it fell to 52 percent; in April 2009 his rating climbed to 62 percent,” write Gamarra and Prado. Meanwhile more than 60% of Hondurans rejected the “meddling” of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez in internal Honduran affairs, what the writers call the “only issue where Hondurans appear to agree.” Their partial conclusion: “The rejection of the coup, the desire to see Zelaya tried for violating the constitution and the condemnation of the role played by the international community show a people that, despite approving the performance of Zelaya in office, fears the possibility of an unconstitutional extension of his mandate that might lead to the installation of a Chávez-like regime. Hondurans appear to prefer representative democracy with all of its flaws to any other type of government.” And Mark Weisbrot writes in the LA Times on Washington insiders, Lanny Davis and Bennett Ratcliff, who have been lobbying Washington for pro-Micheletti business groups in the country. [For more on this story, I recommend Roberto Lovato’s piece in The American Prospect this week.]

Also today, the New York Times’ Simon Romero has a piece on the new U.S. plan for an increased military presence in Colombia. Romero writes that the decision is creating even more tense relations between Colombia and its neighbors, particularly Venezuela, Ecuador, and Nicaragua. Hugo Chávez has called the proposal “new aggression against us,” but Colombian officials have called the new accord an “internal affair.” The U.S. currently has 250 military personnel stationed in Colombia, according to U.S. ambassador William Brownfield. That number is expected to rise with an expanded presence in the country.

The Washington Post reports from Mexico, writing that groups of Mormons in the country are increasingly becoming targets of drug gangs for their relative wealth. Telephones now frequently ring with threats of extortion, the piece says, and children and clan elders are often the target of such violence. Earlier this month, the leader of one Mormon community, Benjamin LeBaron, was killed for denouncing drug gang violence in the country. His killers left a note after his death, warning “this is for the leaders of LeBaron who didn't believe and who still don't believe.” Also today, the AP reports that four suspects have been arrested in the killing of 12 federal agents in Michoacan last week. All are believed to be affiliated with La Familia, the notorious drug cartel that operates in the state.

And finally, speaking in Brazil yesterday, Israel’s controversial foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said Latin American’s largest nation can play an important role in preventing Iran from developing nuclear capabilities. “I think that Brazil more than other countries can try to convince Iranians to stop their nuclear program and, of course, to convince the Palestinians to start direct talks,” noting the South American nation’s good relations with many countries in the Muslim world. For a region once seen as tertiary to such global negotiations, these are certainly interesting words. President Lula da Silva had no comment for reporters after his meeting with Israel’s top diplomat.

Talks in Honduras Collapse...For a Second Time

The hope that negotiations might end the standoff in Honduras failed for a second time late Tuesday when the de facto regime of Roberto Micheletti rejected a second proposal, this time one proposed by the head of its own negotiating team. The New York Times’ Ginger Thompson reports that Micheletti’s foreign minister, Carlos Lopez Contreras, had put together a plan which would have moved presidential elections up one month, barred deposed President Mel Zelaya from changing the constitution to seek reelection, and held up any prosecution of Mr. Zelaya for crimes he may have committed in the run-up to the June 28 coup for six months. However, this limited period of amnesty was apparently rejected by the Supreme Court whose members maintain that Mr. Zelaya should be granted no amnesty whatsoever, writes the paper. [The plan of Mr. Lopez Contreras would have also provided for a truth commission to investigate the actions that led to Mr. Zelaya’s ouster]. Rather than softening its position, the Micheletti regime hardened further on Tuesday by also ordering the expulsion of Venezuelan diplomats still in the country. According to the Venezuelan Embassy’s charge d'affaires, Ariel Vargas, embassy officials received a letter from the Honduran Foreign Ministry ordering diplomats to leave within 72 hours. The de facto regime Honduras cited “meddling in internal affairs” and threats of force by Venezuela as the justification for the expulsion of the Venezuelan diplomatic corps. Venezuela has denied the charges and vowed to defy the expulsion order. For his part, Mel Zelaya remained in Nicaragua yesterday where he called on the U.S. to impose new sanctions against the regime operating in Honduras. In a letter to President Obama, Zelaya advocated only targeted sanctions against those who planned his ouster, citing army officials and lawmakers by name and asking for economic actions against “those who conspired directly to execute the coup” so as to not affect Honduras’s poorest citizens. Some analysts say such targeted sanctions are difficult to impose, however. “Government officials and their assets have to be identified and investigated, ‘and you may be assured that as you are investigating, they'll be trying to move their assets around,’” says Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute in Washington D.C. For its part, the U.S. has continued to insist that talks led by Oscar Arias mediation should be supported and given more time. But others in the region are becoming anxious for things to move more quickly. Late last week, Brazil’s top diplomat urged Sec. of State Hillary Clinton to complain that talks were dragging on too long and that Zelaya should be reinstated without conditions. Meanwhile, Senate Republican Jim DeMint (S.C.) attacked Clinton and Obama’s handling of the Honduran crisis from the other flank Tuesday by calling for a halt on a Senate vote on new State Dept. appointees Tom Shannon (as Amb. to Brazil) and Arturo Valenzuela (as Asst. Sec. of State for the Western Hemisphere). And, finally, in Honduras, all eyes are on the border with Nicaragua, writes the Miami Herald’s Jim Wyss. A narrow asphalt road connects the two countries, and Zelaya has in the past days said he will lead a caravan across the border and into Honduras. Micheletti has ordered his arrest on sight, leading few to believe the confrontation could occur without bloodshed. “If he comes in and they arrest him, there will be bullets,” said a pro-Zelaya taxi driver near the border.

In other news, the LA Times has a piece this morning on Venezuela and the state of the media in that country. Chris Kraul writes that some media activists in the country fear President Chavez may next target social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter as he makes new moves to tighten government control of private media. Chavez recently announced the review of some 240 radio licenses and has argued for new legislation that would limit program sharing among stations, a move opponents say would either put stations off the air or force them to accept pro-Chavez programming. Also, a new law is expected to be presented by Chavez’s Attorney General that would create a new category of so-called “media crimes,” castigating outlets that publish or air opinion rather than “fact.” Meanwhile, the AP also reports today that President Chavez has signaled that the 240 radio stations whose licenses are up for review may be handed over to those who share his socialist vision for the country. The 240 stations represent about 40% of all radio stations in the country, says the AP. In a statement Tuesday, Reporters without Borders said, “We urge the government to shelve steps contrary to fundamental constitutional principles and inter-American jurisprudence on freedom of expression.”

On Mexico, the Washington Post cites a new Pew Hispanic Center poll which shows the number of Mexican immigrants returning to their native country staying level, despite economic hardships in the U.S. While the number of migrants entering the U.S. has fallen significantly, due in part to the economic crisis, 433,000 people returned to Mexico last year compared with 479,000 two years earlier. The numbers indicate that people are essentially staying where they are on both ends, waiting for the recession to end. An LA Times piece reports on new indictments issued by U.S. prosecutors against top leaders of Mexico’s Gulf Cartel and its paramilitary group, the Zetas. Three men, known as the “triumvirate” are accused of spearheading cocaine and marijuana transport operations from South America to the U.S.-Mexico border, say investigators. Also, an interesting New York Times piece on the shortcomings of what was once believed to be new, progressive, no-fault divorce legislation passed last year in Mexico City.

And, finally, in a Miami Herald editorial, the paper calls former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori’s behavior during recent trials and before, “acts of a dictatorial monarch.” The editorial argues democracy in the region is “only as good as the institutions that protect it,” and is critical of the President’s belief that should his daughter, Keiko, be elected in 2011, he will be pardoned for the crimes he has been convicted of over the last year.

Kindappings in Venezuela Create Worries of Anarchy for Some

The recently released GAO report cites Venezuela as a growing transshipment point for cocaine headed to the United States and Europe, but it’s not just drug trafficking that is on the rise in Venezuela, according to today’s New York Times. The paper reports this morning on the continuing spike in common crime in the country as well, in particular kidnappings, as Simon Romero writes that “an intensifying crime wave…has pushed the kidnapping rate in Venezuela past Colombia’s and Mexico’s, with 2 abductions per 100,000 inhabitants”—that according to Interior Ministry statistics in the country. Nowhere is kidnapping more serious problem than in the northwestern region of Barinas, still a Chávez stronghold but one which tallies 7.2 abductions per 100,000 people. Barinas is also the home state of Hugo Chávez and has, through the course of his presidency, been a “laboratory” for projects like land reform, writes the Times. But now, in the minds of some Barinas residents, the region is paradigmatic of disorder and chaos. “This is what anarchy looks like, at least the type of anarchy where the family of Chávez accumulates wealth and power as the rest of us fear for our live,” says a cattleman whose son was recently kidnapped for 29 days. [Chávez’s brother, Adán, is the state’s governor, and he has blamed kidnappings on the opposition as a means of showing weaknesses among Venezuelan security forces. Also, two other Chávez brothers act as either mayors or prominent business leaders in the region and Chávez’s father was once an important political leader in Barinas as well]. As with the GAO report, it appears that corruption and nepotism have played a significant role in doling out high positions of authority and money in Barinas. As the Times writes, “One reason for the rise in kidnappings is the injection of oil money into the local economy, with some families reaping quick fortunes because of ties to large infrastructure projects,” but the state remains Venezuelan’s most impoverished, a decade after its native son rose to power. Also, an interesting NYT blog article over the weekend looks at the contradiction of Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, which remains Latin America’s most expensive city, buoyed by oil money and an overvalued currency, even while many luxury items are out of the reach of most. Simon Romero and Gregory Kristof write “The recent influx of oilmen from as far afield as China and Russia, as well as representatives from other multinationals selling products in Venezuela, explains in part why an unexceptional apartment in Caracas rents easily for $4,000 a month.”

The Miami Herald reports this morning that former Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori was convicted yet again Monday, this time sentenced to an additional 7.5 years in prison for paying off his former head of intelligence, Vladimir Montesinos, in 2000. The sentences, however, will run concurrently, and will keep Fujimori in prison until sometime into the 2030s, adding no time to the 25 years he is currently serving for his role in death squad murders during the 1990s. After being sentenced, Fujimori maintained that “the true judgment for me is that of the people, who have long absolved me in their hearts.” Indeed, his daughter, Keiko, is leading early polls for the 2011 race for president in Peru, illustrative of the mixed opinion many in the country have of the Fujimori clan.

On to the latest happenings in Honduras following the apparent collapse of negotiations led by Costa Rica’s Oscar Arias on Sunday. The European Union announced Monday that it was cutting off some $92 million in aid to the Honduran government while U.S. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton worked the phones, warning de facto leader, Roberto Micheletti, of the consequences if no deal was struck through the mediation process. Clinton called from India and her spokesman called the conversation a “very tough call.” But Micheletti, speaking to supporters yesterday, maintained that he would continue to resist pressure to cede power back to ousted President Mel Zelaya. Tom Shannon and Hugo Llorens, the U.S. ambassador to Honduras, were also working to find a resolution to the mediation impasse over the weekend, talking with Oscar Arias in Costa Rica. Amb. Llorens reportedly met last Thursday with business leaders in Honduras as well—a bastion of support for Mr. Micheletti—and warned them that the Micheletti government would never be recognized by the United States and that Honduras risks further sanctions if a solution is not found. This according to the LA Times. And the Miami Herald, which has been tepid at best in its condemnation of the coup thus far, runs an editorial today, arguing that Micheletti should accept the proposal of President Arias. “This crisis needs to come to a conclusion that returns Mr. Zelaya to a limited presidency while moving forward with expedited elections,” says the paper.

In other news this morning, Reuters reports that Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is defending a plan to allow more U.S. troops into his country for anti-narcotics operations. “The plan is to strengthen Colombian military bases, not to open American bases in Colombia,” Uribe said Monday. “The accord is meant to help Colombians regain their right to live in peace.” Meanwhile, Colombia’s neighbor, Venezuela, has ordered a review of its relations with Colombia in reaction to Uribe's plan to increase the number of U.S. troops there.

In Nicaragua, speaking at an event which marked the 30^th anniversary of the Sandinista revolution, President Daniel Ortega proposed to allow recall elections in the country and berated presidential term limits, which he called must stricter than those for other public offices. “If we are going to be just and fair, let the right to re-election be for all and people with their vote can award or punish,” Ortega told a crowd. “This is the principle that we have to defend.” Opposition leaders in the Nicaraguan Congress were quick to criticize Ortega for the remarks, but according to the Inter-American Dialogue’s Dan Erikson, “Ortega has a much stronger political base in Nicaragua than Zelaya did in Honduras,” where some say a similar project for ending term limits was in the works.

Finally today, an opinion piece in the Washington Post by Jorge Castaneda and Tamar Jacoby of the D.C.-based ImmigrationWorks. Analyzing the possibility of immigration reform in the U.S., the piece, interestingly, looks at the issue from a Mexican perspective. The two argue that “the United States can’t hope to implement an immigration overhaul without help from Mexico -- help administering legalization and dissuading future illegal immigration. And no Mexican government can afford to cooperate with Washington unless the reform includes a significant increase in temporary worker visas.”

Honduran Talks Collapse

Talks between deposed Honduran President Mel Zelaya and the leader of the de facto regime, Roberto Micheletti, collapsed on Sunday when Micheletti rejected the terms of a resolution provided by mediator, Oscar Arias. The New York Times writes that Arias provided a 7-point plan to both sides over the weekend which would have restored Zelaya to power over a “unity government.” The terms of the deal would also have limited Zelaya’s presidential powers, moved up elections by one month to October, and provided amnesty for all political crimes committed by the two sides over the past weeks. According to Arias, Zelaya’s delegation had accepted all the terms of the proposal, but Micheletti refused to accept Zelaya’s reinstatement as president of the country. In the wake of the collapse, Arias is asking both parties to give him 72 more hours to seek a last-ditch solution to the impasse which he says could end with “a civil war and bloodshed that the people of Honduras do not deserve.” Meanwhile, Zelaya continues to insist he will stage a return to the country this week, perhaps crossing the border on foot in what an aide has called a “great march against oppression.” Reuters reports that Zelaya claims mass resistance is also being prepared within Honduras, and one Honduran analyst notes that “We could see violence if Zelaya tries to return by force.” A march on the Congress organized by pro-Zelaya forces is planned for today and a two-day national strike may occur on Thursday and Friday. The Wall Street Journal says that the de facto regime’s intransigence shows how Mel Zelaya continues to be mistrusted by most of Honduras’s “institutions and political class,” including the Church, business community, the courts, and the military.

Also this weekend, the Washington Post reports on the new GAO findings on drug trafficking and Venezuela. The Post’s Juan Forero says the non-partisan research office has concluded that corruption at high levels of the Chávez government and state aid to drug traffickers in neighboring Colombia have made Venezuela a “launching pad for cocaine bound for the United States and Europe.” According to the GAO, the amount of cocaine traveling from Colombia to Venezuela has risen from 60 metric tons in 2004 to 260 metric tons in 2007. The report goes on to call this a “lifeline” to FARC guerrillas who depend heavily upon the drug trade to finance operations in Colombia. For his part, President Hugo Chávez has rejected the report saying the U.S., as the world’s top cocaine consumer, has no right to lecture his country on drug issues. He added that his country has made important anti-drug gains since expelling the DEA in 2005. The GAO report had been commissioned by the Foreign Relations Committee’s ranking member, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN). After the report’s release, Lugar said that its findings “have heightened my concern that Venezuela’s failure to cooperate with the United States on drug interdiction is related to corruption in that country's government.” A Democratic aide consulted by the Post said, however, that a review of U.S.-Venezuela policy following the report could interfere with Sec. of State Clinton’s work to improve relations with Venezuela.

More on drugs this weekend, as the New York Times also features a piece on drug smuggling from Mexico to the U.S. via small boats as the U.S.-Mexico border tightens. Both migrants and drug traffickers are increasingly taking to the water in an attempt to reach the U.S., border agents are reporting. The number of illegal immigrants interdicted off the coast has doubled in the last two years and the seizure of drugs, principally marijuana, has also skyrocketed from 906 pounds in 2007 to 6,300 pound last year. Also, the LA Times writes that drug trafficking is imperiling the journey of migrants to the U.S., perhaps adding to decreases in emigration from Mexico and Central America north over the last year. The paper says “migrants and drugs once occupied separate worlds. But tougher border enforcement has pushed the groups into the same obscure parts of the desert. The close company adds a new element of danger to migrants' already perilous journey, and may be responsible for a drop in immigration and economic decline in towns that depend on the migrants.” And, in the region, last Friday the last U.S. anti-drug flight took off from the Manta air base in Ecuador. Counter-narcotics operations have been centered in Ecuador for a decade and were credited with 60% of Pacific drug interdictions, but the lease on the base was not renewed by Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa.

Also on Ecuador and Rafael Correa, the AP confirmed over the weekend the existence of a video showing Colombian FARC rebels discussing contributing to Correa’s campaign. Correa has rejected the video’s veracity. But if true, who knew the rebel group did political fundraising?

Two notes on Bolivia, reported by the AP. First, Evo Morales said over the weekend that he would like to extend the ALBA alliance, spearheaded by Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, to include military partnerships between member countries and increased collaboration between the region’s political parties and social movements. And the leader of Bolivia’s coca growers union has said the union will support Evo Morales’s bid for re-election in December elections by having each member donate a pound of coca profits to his campaign.

On Cuba, and perhaps a new Obama approach to U.S.-Cuba relations, the Miami Herald reports that the U.S. has released new information about military cooperation between the two governments. Details of on-going “mass casualty exercises” between the two governments was reported to journalists recently. Retired U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Jack Sheehan called the “calibrated exposure a likely ‘trial balloon’ by an Obama administration experimenting with expanded relations with Havana.”

Finally, two opinions. Andres Oppenheimer in the MH writes on China in Latin America, arguing that while the Asian power has increased its profile in the region, it will not overtake the U.S. in the region any time soon. Conservative columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady adds her two-cents on continuing developments in Honduras, echoing past arguments that the crisis is merely a proxy battle for the U.S. to stand up to Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, which, in her opinion, the U.S. has yet to do.

A Compromise on a Unity Government in Honduras?

Costa Rican mediator, President Oscar Arias, said Thursday that ousted Honduran President Mel Zelaya and his counterpart, Roberto Micheletti, have agreed, in theory, to multiple compromises, among them the formation of a “unity government” and amnesty for crimes committed by both sides. This apparent breakthrough is reported by the New York Times this morning, but the paper’s Ginger Thompson adds that the two sides are still far apart on other issues, in particular the reinstatement of Zelaya himself. This fact makes a deal between the two parties still unlikely when talks resume this Saturday. The unity government that Arias claims both sides have agreed to would include members of all political parties in Honduras to serve as a check on the president’s power. However, it seems there remains strong opposition within the Micheletti camp against letting Zelaya form part of such a government. And an AP story this morning seems to contradict much of the positive reporting in the NYT, saying Mel Zelaya is preparing a second attempt to return to Honduras where he will try once again to reclaim power. According to Zelaya’s foreign minister, Patricia Rodas, the deposed leader is en route to Honduras where he plans to set up an “alternative seat of government” and “wage a final battle” against coup backers. Rodas added that Zelaya has nothing to negotiate unless the “illegal regime surrenders peacefully.” For his part, Micheletti once again responded to the possibility of a Zelaya return on such terms, saying “If he comes and presents himself to authorities, he is welcome in our country. But if he comes with the intention of starting a revolutionary movement then he will find a people disposed to do anything.” In Honduras, the Miami Herald writes that rumors of a Zelaya return have put many in the country on edge. A second Zelaya aide, Allan Fajardo, tells the MH that the president will “try to return by parachute, boat or plane -- any way he can get there. There shouldn't be the least amount of doubt about that.” Pro-Zelaya supporters have taken to the streets of Tegucigalpa en masse, a curfew was reinstated two nights ago, and many businesses in the country are struggling financially due to uncertainty and unrest. And in Washington, D.C., OAS Sec. General José Miguel Insulza spoke candidly to over 200 people at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Thursday. Boz has notes on the event here. Among the most interesting points of the talk are what Insulza calls a feeling of “confusion” on the part of the Supreme Court’s president on the day of the coup (making the claim that the military was simply carrying out the will of Supreme Court by ousting Zelaya seem strange) and no mention of the role of the U.S. in finding a mediator. Rather, Insulza claims he and the OAS were the ones that called Arias to mediate the crisis. He also reaffirmed the OAS position that the number one priority of the OAS is that Zelaya be reinstated as the leader of Honduras.

Also this morning, the LA Times reports that the Mexican government will deploy 5,500 new security officers, both police and military, to the Western state of Michoacan in the coming days. The decision comes after the deadly attacks carried out by members of La Familia, a cult-like and very violent drug syndicate operating primarily in the state, earlier this week. Prior to the announcement, some 1000 new police officers had already been deployed by President Calderon to the president’s home state. New equipment also accompanied the added personnel, including helicopters and armored vehicles. The expected breakdown of new security forces is reported to be as follows: 2,500 new soldiers, 1,500 federal police and 1,500 naval personnel. Interestingly, the LAT also reports that the new deployment in Michoacan came after a bizarre exchange between Mexican officials and a man who claimed to be Servando Gomez Martinez, La Famila’s well known operations chief. The man called a Michoacan television phone-in show Wednesday and urged the government to reach an accord with La Familia, which he said had been unfairly targeted by police. The country’s interior minister rejected the offer at a press conference just one hour later. Reuters calls the surge “one of the biggest in the 3 ½ year drug war” waged by President Calderon. While on the ground, the news agency says that “La Familia is battling the rival Gulf cartel from northeastern Mexico and its feared armed wing, the Zetas, for control of Michoacan in a war being played out across Mexico.”

And finally, an opinion yesterday from the Miami Herald’s Andres Oppenheimer looks at the economic crisis in Latin America. The columnist says “a new United Nations study projects that the region's economy will start recovering in the second half this year, and that it will grow by a respectable 3.1 percent next year.” But, before that happens, the Santiago-based ECLAC also says “the region's economy will contract by 1.9 percent this year, and unemployment in the region is expected to reach 9 percent by the end of the year, adding another three million people to the 180 million living below the poverty line.” The biggest economic loser this year appears to be Mexico, whose economy could contract by as much as 7%. The economies of Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela all, interestingly enough, are predicted to experience growth still, be it limited. Among the reasons for this growth, says the UN body, are China’s growing purchases of raw materials, a recovery of world commodity prices, and a slow but gradual increase in world trade.