Monday, July 27, 2009

Potential Rift within the Military Gives Hope of New Negotiations in Honduras

Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has set up camp in the Nicaraguan border town of Ocotal, telling reporters he will stay there for the next week with many Honduran supporters who have joined him. Meanwhile, the Honduran military posted a statement on their website over the weekend, indicating their support for a mediated resolution to the current crisis. Specifically, the statement indicated support within the military for returning Zelaya to power under a power-sharing agreement, writes the AP. Zelaya addressed the communiqué on Sunday, saying it shows the growing divisions among various factions who had supported his ouster nearly a month ago. The New York Times reported Sunday that the communiqué had been drafted after “days of talks between mid-level Honduran military officers and American congressional aides,” although no specific names have been mentioned. On this same front, Zelaya on Sunday continued to ask the U.S. for stronger action against the coup government of Roberto Micheletti, declaring that he “wanted to know what the United States’ real position is on the coup.” These developments come after Zelaya crossed briefly into Honduran territory on Friday. Soldiers did not attempt to arrest him, but Zelaya apparently feared his supporters would be attacked by security forces if he ventured any further into the country. Honduran courts still maintain that Zelaya will be arrested if he returns to his home country, and an independent prosecutor has issued an arrest order for the deposed leader, which is supported by the country’s high court, charging Zelaya with four constitutional crimes, including treason. Such crimes carry combined penalties of up to 43 years in prison, says an AP report. The coup government is “just throwing a lot of stuff at the wall to see what sticks to justify what happened,” says Christopher Sabatini of the New York-based Americas Society. Meanwhile there were new reports of human rights violations against Zelaya supporters in Honduras. A young man was found stabbed to death, with his body dropped near the border town of El Paraíso, bringing the number of documented killings to at least six, with two likely disappearances, according to those reporting in the country. The police and military have rejected involvement in the killings. For weekend opinions on the Honduran crisis, the Wall Street Journal runs a piece by Roberto Micheletti himself. The de facto President writes: “The worst distortion [in the media] is the repetition of the false statement that Mr. Zelaya was removed from office by the military and for being a ‘reformer.’ The truth is that he was removed by a democratically elected civilian government because the independent judicial and legislative branches of our government found that he had violated our laws and constitution. Micheletti adds that the way forward is to work through Oscar Arias to find a solution to the crisis and even says forming a truth commission to investigate all events of the past months would be useful. In the Washington Post, an opinion by Edward Schumacher-Matos, strongly criticizes OAS Sec. General José Miguel Insulza for his handling of the Honduran crisis, going so far as to say he should lose his job over the matter. He writes that Insulza “has shown no respect for its constitution or institutions. He has been tone-deaf to the need for trust and legitimacy for democracy to work.” And also in the WSJ, columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady looks at Obama’s Chief Counsel, Greg Craig, as someone that president may be relying on for Latin American policy help inside the White House as the Honduran crisis continues.

In other stories today, the New York Times, like the WP last week, looks at the danger that Mormon communities in Northern Mexico have come under recently, particularly after the murder of two Mormons with U.S. citizenship in the state of Chihuahua.

The NYT’s Alexi Barrionuevo reports from Asunción, Paraguay, where Paraguay and Brazil struck a new deal on the enormous Itaipú dam which the two countries share. Paraguay’s Fernando Lugo has long been attempting to renegotiate the dam treaty and finally succeeded over the weekend as Brazil’s Lula da Silva pledged to triple the profits that Paraguay currently receives from the megaproject. The regional implications of the new treaty terms are huge, say many analysts. “The Brazilians are going to do anything they can to shore up the moderate or democratic left in Latin America. They are quite clearly hoping that Lugo will move in the direction of staying with the Brazilians,” says Johns Hopkins’ Riordan Roett.

The LA Times reports on the state of the opposition in Venezuela who continue to claim that their resources and duties are being usurped by President Hugo Chávez and the national government. One governor in Miranda state says reductions in revenue sharing agreements have cut state income by as much as 40%. And proposed legislation within the Chávez-led National Assembly is currently being considered which would restrict the representation of party coalitions, a measure that would favor Chavez's PSUV party. Some believe the legislation to be unconstitutional as it could reduce minority representation in the National Assembly unless opposition parties unite. In mid-July, Chavez described opposition governors as “enemies of the people” and threatened to prosecute them for allegedly raising paramilitary armies. Also on Venezuela, Spike Lee spoke in the country over the weekend, defending the right to free speech. While not specifically referring to President Chávez’s encroachments on freedom of the press, the well-known movie director said there “no circumstances” under which the news media should be silenced. Lee was in the country to screen his 1989 film “Do the Right Thing.”

In Colombia, new clashes on Saturday between the military and FARC guerillas left 16 rebels and at least 1 security officer dead in the Southern department of Meta.

Finally, a last opinion this morning. MH columnist Andres Oppenheimer this weekend writes of Israel’s attempt to “fortify” its presence in Latin America. Israel’s Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, is currently on a 10 day tour of the region, visiting Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Colombia. The visit is the first by an Israeli Foreign Minister in 23 years. And, according to Israeli officials, the trip is specifically “aimed at strengthening Israel's relations with the region and countering Iran's growing influence in Latin America.

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