A Compromise on a Unity Government in Honduras?

Costa Rican mediator, President Oscar Arias, said Thursday that ousted Honduran President Mel Zelaya and his counterpart, Roberto Micheletti, have agreed, in theory, to multiple compromises, among them the formation of a “unity government” and amnesty for crimes committed by both sides. This apparent breakthrough is reported by the New York Times this morning, but the paper’s Ginger Thompson adds that the two sides are still far apart on other issues, in particular the reinstatement of Zelaya himself. This fact makes a deal between the two parties still unlikely when talks resume this Saturday. The unity government that Arias claims both sides have agreed to would include members of all political parties in Honduras to serve as a check on the president’s power. However, it seems there remains strong opposition within the Micheletti camp against letting Zelaya form part of such a government. And an AP story this morning seems to contradict much of the positive reporting in the NYT, saying Mel Zelaya is preparing a second attempt to return to Honduras where he will try once again to reclaim power. According to Zelaya’s foreign minister, Patricia Rodas, the deposed leader is en route to Honduras where he plans to set up an “alternative seat of government” and “wage a final battle” against coup backers. Rodas added that Zelaya has nothing to negotiate unless the “illegal regime surrenders peacefully.” For his part, Micheletti once again responded to the possibility of a Zelaya return on such terms, saying “If he comes and presents himself to authorities, he is welcome in our country. But if he comes with the intention of starting a revolutionary movement then he will find a people disposed to do anything.” In Honduras, the Miami Herald writes that rumors of a Zelaya return have put many in the country on edge. A second Zelaya aide, Allan Fajardo, tells the MH that the president will “try to return by parachute, boat or plane -- any way he can get there. There shouldn't be the least amount of doubt about that.” Pro-Zelaya supporters have taken to the streets of Tegucigalpa en masse, a curfew was reinstated two nights ago, and many businesses in the country are struggling financially due to uncertainty and unrest. And in Washington, D.C., OAS Sec. General José Miguel Insulza spoke candidly to over 200 people at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Thursday. Boz has notes on the event here. Among the most interesting points of the talk are what Insulza calls a feeling of “confusion” on the part of the Supreme Court’s president on the day of the coup (making the claim that the military was simply carrying out the will of Supreme Court by ousting Zelaya seem strange) and no mention of the role of the U.S. in finding a mediator. Rather, Insulza claims he and the OAS were the ones that called Arias to mediate the crisis. He also reaffirmed the OAS position that the number one priority of the OAS is that Zelaya be reinstated as the leader of Honduras.

Also this morning, the LA Times reports that the Mexican government will deploy 5,500 new security officers, both police and military, to the Western state of Michoacan in the coming days. The decision comes after the deadly attacks carried out by members of La Familia, a cult-like and very violent drug syndicate operating primarily in the state, earlier this week. Prior to the announcement, some 1000 new police officers had already been deployed by President Calderon to the president’s home state. New equipment also accompanied the added personnel, including helicopters and armored vehicles. The expected breakdown of new security forces is reported to be as follows: 2,500 new soldiers, 1,500 federal police and 1,500 naval personnel. Interestingly, the LAT also reports that the new deployment in Michoacan came after a bizarre exchange between Mexican officials and a man who claimed to be Servando Gomez Martinez, La Famila’s well known operations chief. The man called a Michoacan television phone-in show Wednesday and urged the government to reach an accord with La Familia, which he said had been unfairly targeted by police. The country’s interior minister rejected the offer at a press conference just one hour later. Reuters calls the surge “one of the biggest in the 3 ½ year drug war” waged by President Calderon. While on the ground, the news agency says that “La Familia is battling the rival Gulf cartel from northeastern Mexico and its feared armed wing, the Zetas, for control of Michoacan in a war being played out across Mexico.”

And finally, an opinion yesterday from the Miami Herald’s Andres Oppenheimer looks at the economic crisis in Latin America. The columnist says “a new United Nations study projects that the region's economy will start recovering in the second half this year, and that it will grow by a respectable 3.1 percent next year.” But, before that happens, the Santiago-based ECLAC also says “the region's economy will contract by 1.9 percent this year, and unemployment in the region is expected to reach 9 percent by the end of the year, adding another three million people to the 180 million living below the poverty line.” The biggest economic loser this year appears to be Mexico, whose economy could contract by as much as 7%. The economies of Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela all, interestingly enough, are predicted to experience growth still, be it limited. Among the reasons for this growth, says the UN body, are China’s growing purchases of raw materials, a recovery of world commodity prices, and a slow but gradual increase in world trade.