Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Talks in Honduras Collapse...For a Second Time

The hope that negotiations might end the standoff in Honduras failed for a second time late Tuesday when the de facto regime of Roberto Micheletti rejected a second proposal, this time one proposed by the head of its own negotiating team. The New York Times’ Ginger Thompson reports that Micheletti’s foreign minister, Carlos Lopez Contreras, had put together a plan which would have moved presidential elections up one month, barred deposed President Mel Zelaya from changing the constitution to seek reelection, and held up any prosecution of Mr. Zelaya for crimes he may have committed in the run-up to the June 28 coup for six months. However, this limited period of amnesty was apparently rejected by the Supreme Court whose members maintain that Mr. Zelaya should be granted no amnesty whatsoever, writes the paper. [The plan of Mr. Lopez Contreras would have also provided for a truth commission to investigate the actions that led to Mr. Zelaya’s ouster]. Rather than softening its position, the Micheletti regime hardened further on Tuesday by also ordering the expulsion of Venezuelan diplomats still in the country. According to the Venezuelan Embassy’s charge d'affaires, Ariel Vargas, embassy officials received a letter from the Honduran Foreign Ministry ordering diplomats to leave within 72 hours. The de facto regime Honduras cited “meddling in internal affairs” and threats of force by Venezuela as the justification for the expulsion of the Venezuelan diplomatic corps. Venezuela has denied the charges and vowed to defy the expulsion order. For his part, Mel Zelaya remained in Nicaragua yesterday where he called on the U.S. to impose new sanctions against the regime operating in Honduras. In a letter to President Obama, Zelaya advocated only targeted sanctions against those who planned his ouster, citing army officials and lawmakers by name and asking for economic actions against “those who conspired directly to execute the coup” so as to not affect Honduras’s poorest citizens. Some analysts say such targeted sanctions are difficult to impose, however. “Government officials and their assets have to be identified and investigated, ‘and you may be assured that as you are investigating, they'll be trying to move their assets around,’” says Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute in Washington D.C. For its part, the U.S. has continued to insist that talks led by Oscar Arias mediation should be supported and given more time. But others in the region are becoming anxious for things to move more quickly. Late last week, Brazil’s top diplomat urged Sec. of State Hillary Clinton to complain that talks were dragging on too long and that Zelaya should be reinstated without conditions. Meanwhile, Senate Republican Jim DeMint (S.C.) attacked Clinton and Obama’s handling of the Honduran crisis from the other flank Tuesday by calling for a halt on a Senate vote on new State Dept. appointees Tom Shannon (as Amb. to Brazil) and Arturo Valenzuela (as Asst. Sec. of State for the Western Hemisphere). And, finally, in Honduras, all eyes are on the border with Nicaragua, writes the Miami Herald’s Jim Wyss. A narrow asphalt road connects the two countries, and Zelaya has in the past days said he will lead a caravan across the border and into Honduras. Micheletti has ordered his arrest on sight, leading few to believe the confrontation could occur without bloodshed. If he comes in and they arrest him, there will be bullets,” said a pro-Zelaya taxi driver near the border.

In other news, the LA Times has a piece this morning on Venezuela and the state of the media in that country. Chris Kraul writes that some media activists in the country fear President Chavez may next target social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter as he makes new moves to tighten government control of private media. Chavez recently announced the review of some 240 radio licenses and has argued for new legislation that would limit program sharing among stations, a move opponents say would either put stations off the air or force them to accept pro-Chavez programming. Also, a new law is expected to be presented by Chavez’s Attorney General that would create a new category of so-called “media crimes,” castigating outlets that publish or air opinion rather than “fact.” Meanwhile, the AP also reports today that President Chavez has signaled that the 240 radio stations whose licenses are up for review may be handed over to those who share his socialist vision for the country. The 240 stations represent about 40% of all radio stations in the country, says the AP. In a statement Tuesday, Reporters without Borders said, “We urge the government to shelve steps contrary to fundamental constitutional principles and inter-American jurisprudence on freedom of expression.”

On Mexico, the Washington Post cites a new Pew Hispanic Center poll which shows the number of Mexican immigrants returning to their native country staying level, despite economic hardships in the U.S. While the number of migrants entering the U.S. has fallen significantly, due in part to the economic crisis, 433,000 people returned to Mexico last year compared with 479,000 two years earlier. The numbers indicate that people are essentially staying where they are on both ends, waiting for the recession to end. An LA Times piece reports on new indictments issued by U.S. prosecutors against top leaders of Mexico’s Gulf Cartel and its paramilitary group, the Zetas. Three men, known as the “triumvirate” are accused of spearheading cocaine and marijuana transport operations from South America to the U.S.-Mexico border, say investigators. Also, an interesting New York Times piece on the shortcomings of what was once believed to be new, progressive, no-fault divorce legislation passed last year in Mexico City.

And, finally, in a Miami Herald editorial, the paper calls former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori’s behavior during recent trials and before, “acts of a dictatorial monarch.” The editorial argues democracy in the region is “only as good as the institutions that protect it,” and is critical of the President’s belief that should his daughter, Keiko, be elected in 2011, he will be pardoned for the crimes he has been convicted of over the last year.

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