Round One: Advantage Santos

Juan Manuel Santos cruised to a round-one victory in Colombia’s presidential elections Sunday. However, the former defense minister and heir to current president Alvaro Uribe did not reach the 50% mark needed to prevent a run-off vote against second-place finisher, Antanas Mockus. The two men now prepare to square off once again on June 20^th. [In a distant third place was Germán Vargas and in fourth, Gustavo Petro. Noemí Sanin finished in fifth place].

The latest vote tally reported in the New York Times says Santos secured just over 46% of Sunday’s vote against Mockus’s 21.5%. In fact, Santos swept every state in the country, save one and the capital of Bogotá, both of which fell into the Mockus column. Those numbers came as a major surprise to observers and analysts after numerous pre-election polls showed the two men running neck-in-neck going into Sunday. [There appear to be no major reports of electoral fraud].

Analyzing the results, Cynthia Arnson of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington says the vote signals the co-existence of two demands: stability, on the one hand and clean government, on the other. [More pre-election analysis from Cynthia Arnson at CFR]. But it’s the former which seems to have won out over the weekend. Speaking to supporters late Sunday, Santos declared his first-round victory a victory for President Uribe. “Mr. Uribe, this is your triumph and of all those who want to defend your legacy,” he said. “Colombia has voted to defend your achievements and proposals.” More on the Uribe legacy in Mary Anastasia O’Grady’s weekend column in the Wall Street Journal, based on an interview with the outgoing Colombian president.

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· In Jamaica, security forces have yet to detain drug don Christopher “Dudus” Coke, although violence seems to have decreased over the weekend. The New York Times’ Kareem Fahim examines how the Jamaican state is attempting to replace the void left by arrested Jamaican drug lords in various parts of Kingston where drug lords had become the principal providers of social services and security. More good reporting on Jamaica from the Financial Times this weekend while Orlando Patterson, professor of sociology at Harvard, had an opinion worth reading in the New York Times on the matter. Patterson says the situation in Jamaica brings to the forefront questions about the co-existence of democracy and violence. He writes:

“Jamaica, to its credit, has by global standards achieved a robust democracy. However great the violence during elections, voting is fair and governments change at the national level regularly and fairly smoothly. The judiciary, if overburdened, is nonetheless independent and relatively uncorrupt. There is a vigorous free press, and a lively civil society. Freedom House has continuously categorized the island as a ‘free’ country.”

He concludes that the presence of both democracy and violence is hardly an anomaly in the region. Rather, it is becoming the norm – and one which must be considered trans-nationally:

“Jamaica, though an extreme case, is more in line with other democracies of the hemisphere, including Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico and even Brazil, where the treacherous joint transition to democratic maturity and economic security has been accompanied by horrendous levels of crime… The problem of Jamaica might not seem so insoluble if Americans were to have a more sympathetic understanding of the transitional plight of this little country, brought on in large part by its unwavering struggle toward a more mature and equitable democracy.”

· In Mexico, the BBC says between 20 and 25 bodies were found in an abandoned mine in the state of Guerrero, Mexico over the weekend. Investigators say the bodies were thrown into the mine over several months and are likely the work of drug gangs. In Northern Mexico, meanwhile, the Washington Post reports on the new presence of pirates on Falcon Lake, a massive reservoir on the US-Mexico border, popular with sportsmen. “The pirates claim to be ‘federales,’ or police, but instead are brigands -- with the letter ‘Z’ tattooed on their necks and arms -- from the notorious drug cartel Los Zetas,” says the paper’s William Booth.

· Bolivian President Evo Morales spoke of increased narco-infiltration within the Bolivian state. Among the institutions being co-opted by traffickers, Morales singled out the police, judiciary, and the fiscalía, says BBC Mundo. The president also placed blame squarely upon the US for the increased presence of drug traffickers [ditto from Fidel Castro in a column in Granma this weekend]. Ass’t. Sec. of State Arturo Valenzuela will be in Bolivia today, but little is known about Valenzuela’s official agenda. The Andean Information Network suggests that the assistant secretary “jumpstart efforts to reach and sign a new bilateral framework agreement between Bolivia and the U.S.”

· Also in Bolivia, news that the famous Spanish jurist, Baltasar Garzón, currently suspended from practicing law in Spain, will be advising the Bolivian government in its judicial reform process.

· The Washington Post last Friday reported on an April 20^th letter from the US to Brazil and Turkey, regarding Iran negotiations. Brazil claims the letter signaled one-time US support for the negotiations. The US has a slightly different take. As El País reports, Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, speaking at the Brookings Institution Thursday, said Iran was using Brazil to “buy time” and allowing Iran to buy time “makes the world more dangerous.”

· In Haiti, the Wall Street Journal says the majority of US troops stationed in the country are on their way home today, “leaving United Nations forces and civilian groups to help the country rebuild its devastated capital in the wake of January's deadly earthquake.” The exit is in accordance with an agreement between the Haitian and US governments, reached several months ago. According to State Dept. spokesman, PJ Crowley, “The military played an essential short-term role, but now this is getting back to where the focus is on development, and that expertise rests in the civilian sector.”

· Argentina’s La Nación publishes an interesting interview with Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa. Correa has some interesting points about what he sees as the principal similarities and differences between himself and Hugo Chavez (Chavez has a clear geostrategic plan while Correa’s focus is Ecuador’s national economy, for example) and the pleasant surprise of new Chilean president Sebastian Pinera who he says shares his own “Latin Americanist” vision of regional integration.

· In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega last week hinted that he would not be opposed to dissolving the National Congress in order to overcome the confrontation between the opposition and the FSLN.

· Over 100 have been killed by a deadly tropical storm that struck Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador over the weekend.

· And in the New York Times, a fascinating Saturday profile of young Dutch FARC militant Tanja Nijmeijer who, the paper says, may have risen to the top of the guerrilla group’s inner circle as the personal assistant to top commander, Mono Jojoy. The 32-year-old Nijmeijer (nom de guerre: Alexandra) joined the FARC in 2002 while teaching English in Bogotá.

· Finally, a few opinions. Roger Noriega in AEI’s journal, The American, supports adding Venezuela to the state sponsor of terrorism list. In the Miami Herald, Andres Oppenheimer writes of “new political winds” passing over the region. “After a decade of radical leftist populism,” he argues, “we are entering a new era of centrist pragmatism.” A similar opinion is offered from Infolatam which looks at similarities between Mockus and Chile’s Marco Enriquez-Onminami – both of whom represent a “new politics” (heavy on youth participation and social networking), according to the news service.