Whispers of a Coup

We’re just 18 days shy of the one year anniversary of the 2009 coup d’etat carried out against the government of Manuel Zelaya in Honduras. And, as various reports over the last week indicate, coup rumors are swirling once again. This time, however, President Porfirio Lobo Sosa is the target and a small cadre of unnamed National Party leaders (possibly in collaboration with sectors of the military) is the group under presidential suspicion.

The AP has the first English language report I’ve seen on the matter thus far. It’s short but quotes Lobo who Wednesday told potential golpistas in somewhat cryptic of terms that “I'm warning you that I know who you all are. I have information, and you were wrong about me.” Lobo said the words were directed toward three leaders within his own party, but names he did not provide. The head of the party, Fernando Anduray, did respond, however, calling Lobo’s warning “imprudent.” Nevertheless, the AP continues, security for Lobo, his family, and his closest advisers was doubled Wednesday.

Honduras Culture and Politics has a wrap-up of coup rumor stories which found their way into all the Honduran papers yesterday. Proceso Digital, for one, highlights a directive Lobo issued to all governmental ministries Tuesday demanding that they neither align themselves with the far right (Unión Cívica Democrática) or the left (Frente Nacional). In this morning’s papers, stories on the matter highlight a speech given yesterday by the head of the Honduran Congress, Juan Orlando Hernández. Tiempo says Hernández promised that the body would not lend its support to any plot seeking the removal of Lobo Sosa from office. Hernández also rejected charges from other members of the Honduran Congress, accusing him of meeting with the military to discuss the possible removal of Supreme Court chief justice, Jorge Rivera Avilez.

Many congressmen are also now calling on President Lobo to reveal the names of alleged coup plotters.

Perhaps the strongest words of the day come from Celín Discua, head of the nacionalistas in Congress, quoted in Tiempo as saying: “There are extremist groups here [in Honduras] that look like Hamas, never changing their positions.”

Behind the headline:

· Hillary Clinton was in Colombia yesterday, continuing her Latin American tour after the OAS General Assembly in Lima, Peru. Her husband joined her for this leg of the trip in which the Sec. of State pledged on-going support for Colombia as it heads toward a change of leadership. According to the AP, Clinton met with outgoing President Uribe, as well as the two candidates (Santos and Mockus) who face off in a June 20 run-off. On questions about Venezuela, and potential FARC-Venezuela links, Clinton said that “Colombia is the best judge of the threats it faces and the way that it wishes to go about meeting those threats.” But, in what the AP calls “an apparent reference” to Hugo Chavez, Clinton added that “I want to underscore for anyone who is listening or watching that the United States will stay a strong partner with Colombia in meeting the security needs that Colombia faces.” Chavez’s response (which he apparently performed in song): “She’s free to like me or not. But I don’t like her either.”

· Clinton’s visit came as the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) released its latest annual survey on global murders of trade unionists. Of the 101 unionists killed in 2009, the ITUC says 48 were Colombians (22 of which were high level union leaders). That number was part of a 30% increase in trade unionist murders around the world, when compared to 2008 statistics. In addition, the next three countries on the list are all Latin American countries as well. Sixteen were killed in Guatemala last year, twelve in Honduras, and six in Mexico, the group reports.

· The UN Security Council voted 12-2 in favor of new sanctions against Iran Wednesday morning. Brazil and Turkey were the only two Security Council members to vote against the measure. Clinton’s response, from Colombia, to those dissenting: “We disagreed with their vote. But I can understand from a diplomatic perspective why they might be able to make a convincing case for how they voted today.” The New York Times highlights how Iran has been the number one thing on Clinton’s mind while trying to make it seem like she’s interested in Latin America. And an interesting take, from Boz, on what the Security Council vote could mean for Brazil and its quest for more equitable international institutions.

· On that topic, the Wall Street Journal has a piece today on the new role of Latin America within international financial institutions and in discussions about global financial reform. The paper writes that “In the past year, Latin American countries have wielded their economic heft to gain a stronger voice on the world stage.” While Brazil has been most discussed, it is not alone. The head of the IMF has also held recent meetings with leaders and ministers from Peru, Mexico, Uruguay, and Bolivia. And, the paper suggests that the IMF, long one of the most despised global institutions in Latin America, may be seeing the winds change – at least in some parts of the region. The WSJ: “Mr. García [Peruvian President Alan García], once a critic of the fund, joked in a speech in Lima that ‘the monetary fund has changed.’ He conceded that that he, Peru, and much of Latin America also had changed.”

· In economic news from Venezuela, a new tightly regulated currency market opened Wednesday – an attempt to strengthen the bolívar and keep rising inflation at bay. The Central Bank has been charged with administering the new market, “setting prices and determining who gets to buy the dollar-linked bonds,” according to the Wall Street Journal. On Wednesday those interested in buying dollars saw prices set by the bank at somewhere between 4.5 bolívars to 5.4 bolívars per dollar. The new market, says the paper, “replaces an eight-year-old, unregulated, free-floating market that Mr. Chávez's government shut down last month, arguing that speculation was artificially weakening the bolívar and adding to inflation.”

· A piece at Foreign Policy, meanwhile, also takes up issues related to the Venezuelan economy, in connection with the release of Oliver Stone’s new film, South of the Border. CEPR co-director and economist Mark Weisbrot helped write the screenplay for the movie, and he spoke with the magazine recently about his take on the Venezuelan economy. Weisbrot has long been more optimistic than most on the economic situation in Venezuela. And while critical of some of Weisbrot’s analysis, the piece is worth a look to get an idea of where significant differences on the Venezuelan economy exist.

· WOLA has a press release out on the resignation of CICIG head Carlos Castresana in Guatemala. “In a part of the world where criminal justice systems have never worked well, and where influential people often manipulate the police, the prosecutors, and the courts, the CICIG represents an unprecedented effort to prosecute sensitive cases of organized crime and corruption,” says WOLA organized crime expert Adriana Beltrán. “Now it looks like that effort has been stymied.”

· On Haiti, the Miami Herald reports that a group of eight US members of Congress have sent a report to Haitian President René Preval, urging the Haitian leadership to move faster in scheduling presidential and parliamentary elections. In a statement from Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee says, “Our government is sympathetic to the plight of Haitians, as demonstrated by the assistance our military, diplomats and development experts provided in the wake of the disaster. But the positive effect of assistance programs will be limited if Haiti lacks a responsible, popularly-elected government.” The Wall Street Journal also reports on how Haiti may lose US judicial funding because of the alleged massacre of Haitian jail inmates revealed by a NY Times investigative report.

· The AP reports on growing distrust between US border agents and their Mexican counterparts after US agents shot and killed a 15-year-old Mexican boy on the banks of the Rio Grande earlier in the week.

· A comprehensive piece at the Migration Information Source by two Inter-American Development Bank employees looks at the changing dynamics of migration in the Americas.

· Andres Oppenheimer, like others before, writes in the Miami Herald about how the Gulf oil disaster presents a chance for US-Cuba cooperation.

· And finally, three new and useful posts at the Just the Facts blog: 1) a primer on the South American Defense Council, created back in December 2008; 2) a briefing on the UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s new numbers on coca cultivation in Colombia (down 16% from 2009); and 3) a look at changes in income inequality across the region.