The Miami Herald’s offered coverage of this week’s Americas Conference, being held in Coral Gables, Florida the past few days and a handful of their reports are worth a read. The event, organized by the paper and the World Bank, has brought together officials from around the region to discuss the state of the region’s economies. Augusto de la Torre, the Bank’s chief economist for Latin America and author of a an interesting op-ed published earlier this week, is quoted in today’s report on the event, offering a glowing assessment of Latin America’s economic present. De la Torre:
“The opportunities have presented themselves [to the region] and the stars have aligned themselves in a way we haven't seen in 50 years.”
According to the paper, Latin America is today “in better shape economically than many of the rich countries, which are dogged by slow growth and troubled balance sheets.” Why? In contrast with the 1990s [and the 1980s for that matter], the region is no longer strapped by heavy debt burdens, the paper says. And meanwhile, many countries [the paper cites Colombia, Chile, and Mexico] have successfully “strengthened their fiscal and financial institutions and now boast Central Banks as credible and professional as those of rich nations.”
As I’ve written here before, there still remains the issue of commodity dependence – a worry which appears to be growing, as the respected UN Economic Commission for Latin America highlighted in its recent assessment of the region’s relationship with the world economy. This fact has led economic experts to suggest windfall commodity profits be both saved and strategically invested to diversify exports and increase the production of value-added manufactured products. But, more broadly speaking much of the region’s success may be credited to another logic – arguably the product of the last decade plus. Here’s how Bolivian Finance Minister Luis Arce articulated it at this week’s conference:
“There's not one recipe for all countries and we decided to rethink our own economic model. This is [policy] made by Bolivians for Bolivia.”
While rarely mentioned, Bolivia’s economy [3.4% economic growth and just 7.9% unemployment last year] has provided some of the region’s strongest results of late. For his part, El Salvador’s Mauricio Funes suggested a similar logic was guiding his attempt at building “effective and efficient” economic policies for El Salvador, neither aligning himself with “US-style capitalism” or “Venezuela-inspired socialism.” That sort of independent-minded economic thinking – balancing national needs with a given country’s particular capacities and resources – seems to be a hopeful trend seen around much of the region – and perhaps an overlooked explanation for the region’s economic gains of recent years.
Moving on:
· Questions about the future of the Cuban economy are on the minds of many after this week’s announcement that the Cuban government plans to soon shed a half million public sector jobs. Time asks what all those newly unemployed persons will do and what a new Cuban economic model will look like. “Monday's declaration opens the door to a significant expansion of the Cuban self-employed, from mechanics to hairstylists,” the magazine says. In addition, Time reports that inside sources suggest “European governments and the Roman Catholic Church are in discussions with Havana about establishing microloan projects in Cuba to help seed small enterprises like bodegas and furniture-making shops.” And there may even be funds coming from the US. “The Washington-based Cuba Study Group, a nonprofit headed by Cuban-American business leaders, has already proposed, along with Mexico's Banco Comportamos, a $10 million microloan program for Cuban entrepreneurs,” according to Tim Padgett’s reporting.
· Meanwhile, the Chicago Tribune and LA Times say that Cuba’s economic changes offer the right moment for serious US Cuba policy changes. The LA Times:
“Change is underway in the Cuban economy. It is time for Congress to end the archaic and ineffectual U.S. trade embargo and get out of the way of U.S. investment in Cuba before American firms lose out to those from Europe, Brazil and elsewhere…The U.S. embargo should be lifted, so American businesses can go to Cuba and get busy.”
For a more nuanced look at how Cubans themselves might adapt to the island’s economic changes, IPS has a good report.
· It took the Peruvian Congress just one day to repeal the controversial Decree 1097 after President Alan Garcia’s about-face Monday. It’s been a busy week for the Peruvian president who also reshuffled his cabinet yesterday to, in Reuters’ words, “pave the way for his party to launch a candidate in next year's presidential election.” Out is former Prime Minister Javier Velasquez, who wants to become the ruling APRA party's nominee for president in April’s vote. In as the new PM is Jose Chang, Garcia’s former education minister. Ismael Benavides, a well-respected banker, will also be replacing Mercedes Araoz as finance minister. Interestingly, it also looks like the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington is hosting another Peruvian presidential contender today – Ollanta Humala. I hope to have more tomorrow on his talk. And, from EFE, news that Peru will be building a counter-narcotics base near its border with Colombia and Brazil, which it hopes to be the site for joint operations with officials from both neighboring countries.
· In Colombia, the head of the Colombian police’s anti-narcotic division suggested that the FARC is today the country’s biggest drug cartel. The FARC is “the big cartel that controls the [cocaine] laboratories in the jungle and handles the drug exit routes out of Colombia,” Gen. Cesar Pinzon told El Tiempo in an interview published Monday. He also cited growing ties between the group and Mexican cartels. That statement follows a recent report from the independent think tank Indepaz which says “paramilitary heirs” are today the principal source of violence in the country.
· Also from Colombia, news that Sen. Javier Caceres, former president of the Colombian congress, was arrested Tuesday for his alleged ties with paramilitary groups. The arrest warrant, says CNN, was issued by the country’s Supreme Court. And the CUT labor federation in Colombia says 36 Colombian trade unionists have been killed so far in 2010. That’s up from 26 murders over the same 9 months in 2009.
· On Mexico, an interesting AP report suggests a new trend in the Mexican drug war: the surrendering of cartel kingpins without a fight. “The criminals are no longer putting up resistance” when surrounded, Navy spokesman Rear Adm. Jose Luis Vergara said after Sunday's arrest of Sergio Villarreal Barragan. The New York Times reports on the resignation of Mexico’s top migration official, three weeks after 72 Central and South American migrants were massacred in Tamaulipas. Cecilia Romero Castillo, the commissioner of the National Migration Institute, offered no reason for her exit but the resignation comes as little surprise. Both a report in the Washington Post and an opinion by Mexican historian Enrique Krauze in the Times assess Mexican violence amidst bicentennial festivities. And it’s been months since there have been any reports on former PAN leader Diego Fernandez de Cevallos – allegedly kidnapped in mid-May. EFE reports today, however, that the individuals claiming to be behind the abduction released a new statement this week, claiming the politico’s “own friends don’t care what his fate is.”
· A group of human rights organizations – among them Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the Washington Office on Latin America – have released a statement urging Congress to withhold Mérida aid to Mexico due to continuing failures in the area of human rights.
· More from the Times on yesterday’s appointment of Michelle Bachelet to head a newly created UN agency which will work on international women’s rights issues.
· Reuters’ Frank Jack Daniel on Venezuelan parliamentary elections and the once-again rising popularity of Hugo Chavez. “New polls show that a recovery in his personal ratings, which began several months ago, continued in August,” Daniel writes. “A new survey by pro-government pollster GIS XXI said 52.6 percent of respondents planned to support candidates allied to Chavez, while 47.4 percent backed the opposition.” Meanwhile, “a poll last month by the well-respected IVAD polling firm, consulted by both the government and opposition, said 54.3 percent would vote Socialist and 45.7 percent for the opposition.”
· And finally, from the BBC, a report on how Venezuela’s voting system is apparently one of the “most advanced” anywhere in the world. That doesn’t mean the process is without some controversy, however. For some, too much technology raises a grand paradox about whether or not the government is capable of determining who voted for whom.
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