Previewing Venezuelan Elections

With three weeks to go before legislative elections in Venezuela, 77% percent of Venezuelans say they plan to vote come September 26. Of those 77%, 34% say they will vote for the Chavez’s governing PSUV while 42% plan to cast their ballot for the opposition. Those numbers come from a poll released last week by Keller and Associates, based on survey data collected from August 7-23. The full survey results are available here and include other intriguing numbers for breaking down current Venezuelan politics. For example, the poll shows a body politic divided neatly into three almost even political parts – 30% of Venezuelans identifying themselves as chavistas, 33% as anti-chavistas, and 37% as neutral. [88% percent of self-identifying chavistas and 87% of self-identifying anti-chavistas say they will vote on the 26th]. Also of interest: Keller’s findings which suggest polarization fatigue. According to the survey, “achieving equilibrium between the opposition and the governing party” is seen as the principal objective of upcoming elections by a plurality of respondents, just barely edging out “controlling spending and corruption.”

The new numbers provide background for two reports on the elections this week. From Reuters, Frank Jack Daniel looks at insecurity –far and away the number one concern of Venezuelans heading into the legislative elections. The balanced report looks at the progress and shortcomings of country’s new National Police, focused on “community-focused policing.” The project “disproves opposition claims that Chavez and his lawmakers have done nothing to combat crime,” the government claims. In the Caracas neighborhood of Catia – the first to be patrolled by the new police force – murder rates have been halved, from 49.6 per 100,000 inhabitants to 17.6, according to Luis Fernandez, director of the National Police [Critics slam the government for lacking numbers which would detail national crime figures]. This is a “bright spot a generally grim situation,” says sociologist David Smilde, but one which still “could be derailed in any number of ways.” The consolidation of the new police force has thus far been slow, with its patrols still limited to Catia and the Caracas subway system.

And from the AP, a report suggesting disillusionment within Chavez’s traditional base of support – the urban poor. The piece cites the recent Consultores 21 poll which put Chavez’s approval rating at a seven-year low of 36% and “shrinking support” in Caracas barrios. Here’s the AP, with reporting that in some ways contradicts the Keller figures on turn-out:

“In about three dozen interviews with The Associated Press in Caracas' poorest slums, many people reeled off a litany of grievances including crime, inflation and lack of sewers and running water. Only a few of those who identified themselves as traditional Chavez supporters expressed an intent to vote against his party, but many suggested they are feeling so disillusioned that they might not bother to cast ballots.”

But, in all of this, it should be remembered that, due to redistricting, chavistas need not win a majority to hang on to their control of the legislature. According to some, the opposition may even be satisfied taking just one-third of the seats in the legislature come September 26. One last note to keep an eye on: the effect the new government-backed “cédula de buen vivir” has on electoral politics. Chavez rolled out the new initiative last week but the details of the program are still fuzzy, at best. More on this to come.

To other stories:

· In Mexico news, the US State Dept. said last Friday that the human rights situation in Mexico has improved, so much so that it is now willing to open the way for $36 million in previously frozen military aid. However, another $26 million, appropriated through a separate congressional budgeting process, remains frozen – hinting that concerns about transparent investigations into alleged human rights abuses remain. In fact, Human Rights Watch Mexico researcher, Nik Steinberg, quoted in the Times report, argues that “given the total impunity for military abuses and widespread cases of torture, none of the funds tied to human rights should be released.” The LA Times Saturday, meanwhile, suggests the Obama administration is still considering a successor plan to the three-year, $1.6 billion Mérida Initiative, begun in 2008 and set to expire next year.

· Continuing in Mexico, a third survivor of the Zeta migrant massacre in Tamaulipas has been identified (Also, see a fascinating IPS report on Tamaulipas media blackout). El Faro reports that Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes made the announcement this weekend -- the survivor was Salvadoran national. The LA Times looks at how the drug cartels are terrorizing the Mexican oil industry, kidnapping PEMEX employees and siphoning off Mexican crude to the tune of $50 million over just the first five months of 2010. PEMEX has also filed a suit against five U.S. companies to recover damages for stolen petroleum products worth more than $250 million, alleging the US firms knowingly bought stolen fuel. More on the arrest of “La Barbie” in the Washington Post Saturday. And an interesting report in the Miami Herald about the booming marijuana industry in Mexico. According to the paper, army eradication squads have been diverted by the drug war’s violence, allowing cannabis cultivation to rise by 35 percent last year. In fact, according to the State Dept, pot production is now higher than at any time in nearly two decades and has become the drug cartels new “cash cow.”

· In El Salvador, legislators approved a new and controversial law criminalizing gang membership. The new law makes illegal the “existence, support, and financing of gangs” while establishing sanctions against those who are gang members and collaborators. More from El Faro and the LA Times.

· In Peru, human rights advocates warn that a recent presidential decree which went into effect last week could result in freedom for ex-president Alberto Fujimori and his intelligence chief, Vladimiro Montesinos. (The latter was recently convicted by the Peruvian Supreme Court for selling guns to the FARC. At the same time he was a key US anti-drug asset – see Coletta Youngers at FPIF, for the full absurdity). The decree closes prosecution against those whose offenses took place prior to 2003 and those whose cases have gone on for over 36 months. Peruvian rights groups IDL and Aprodeh have denounced the decree.

· New poll numbers in Brazil show Dilma Rouseff breaking the 50% mark for the first time. Lula’s delfin continues to distance herself from José Serra who comes in at just 28% in the most recent Datafolha poll, suggesting the possibility of a first-round Dilma victory. Meanwhile, one of the campaign’s principal issues has been education, and the NY Times has a feature on that matter this weekend. The Times:

“Perhaps more than any other challenge facing Brazil today, education is a stumbling block in its bid to accelerate its economy and establish itself as one of the world’s most powerful nations, exposing a major weakness in its newfound armor.”

· Human Rights Watch’s Daniel Wilkinson had a great piece up at the New York Review of Books recently on the rise of the Cuban blogosphere, currently home to “more than one hundred unauthorized bloggers in Cuba, including at least two dozen who are openly critical of the government.” The biggest challenge for Cuban bloggers is “simply finding a way to get online,” Wilkinson argues. (The LA Times, in a weekend editorial, also comments on the lack of internet access on the island). Both pieces are timely as the island’s most famous blogger, Yoani Sanchez, continues to bring in international honors. After recently being named one of the 60 World Press Freedom Heroes by the International Press Institute, Sanchez also was awarded the Prince Claus Award this weekend.

· And finally today, congratulations to Human Rights Watch which was the recipient of a $100 million donation from George Soros. The gift was the largest single donation Soros has ever made and only the second $100 million philanthropic gift made by any single individual this year.