Who "Represents" Venezuela? MUD and PSUV Disagree.

According to numbers being reported by Venezuela’s El Nacional (by way of the National Electoral Council, CNE), the breakdown of the legislature after Sunday’s vote has the PSUV with 98 seats, the opposition (MUD) with 65 seats and the PPT with 2 seats. [If one goes to the CNE’s site this morning, however, there still seem to be some problems getting the seat breakdown up for at least two states. National popular vote totals seem absent still as well]. The general opinion of those results, as portrayed by most media outlets, two days after the vote? A “victory” for the opposition who broke the PSUV’s super-majority in somewhat surprising fashion.

The New York Times’s Simon Romero writes that “in practical terms, the seats won by the opposition enable it to block critical legislation and play a role in determining the makeup of important bodies like the Supreme Court, now packed with the president’s supporters.” The Times continues: “beyond that, however, the elections also offered a view into the viability and direction of Mr. Chávez’s political movement,” adding that their seems to be a bit of soul-searching going on among Chavez supporters (Romero points readers to discussions at the popular pro-Chavez news site, Aporrea.)

Al-Jazeera’s Lucía Newman called Sunday’s vote a “huge setback for Chavez and a dream come true for his opponents.”

The Washington Post meanwhile says the opposition “benefited from widespread concerns over rampant crime and a grinding economic recession now in its second year.” Juan Forero quotes Ramon Guillermo Avelado, director of the MUD coalition’s candidates, who told Venezuelan television Monday that “clearly a majority of the country has expressed itself for a change in the National Assembly.”

It is that claim which President Chavez spent much of Monday rejecting. As Al-Jazeera reports, in his first public news conference since the vote, Chavez maintained his PSUV won 5,422,040 votes nationally, while the MUD coalition, says Chavez, garnered slightly less, at 5,320,175. Another 520,000 votes went to left-leaning PPT, a break-off of the PSUV and a body Chavez now says should not be included among the opposition’s total vote numbers. Again, I have yet to see the CNE confirm any these numbers but the debate surrounding them does seem to indicate just how important it is for Chavez to show he is governing on behalf of Venezuela’s majority (or at least a plurality).

Looking forward, speculation has begun about the direction the opposition will takes in its new position of “power.” Michael Shifter, quoted in today’s Times, says if the opposition is to succeed it must find both an appealing leader who can “articulate a vision for a post-Chávez Venezuela that would include the president’s supporters” and “develop serious policy ideas to address a range of problems, particularly mounting crime and economic distress.” In the past, some have pointed to the ex-chavistas who have formed the PPT as the only individuals capable of doing so, emphasizing what one of its candidates for deputy in Caracas, the respected historian Margarita Lopez Maya, has called a “non polarized alternative.” But the PPT seems to have struggled Sunday, even in areas where it was thought to be strongest – namely, the state of Lara where the party’s most well-recognized leader, Henri Falcon, is governor.

A quick round-up of other Venezuela notes today, before moving on:

· The AP reports this morning that Hugo Chavez followed up election questions yesterday by saying Venezuela will begin carrying out initial studies into starting a nuclear energy program. He insists it will be for “peaceful purposes,” but I am sure we’ll be hearing much more about this in the coming days. UNASUR secretary general, Nestor Kirchner, speaking in New York Monday, said Sunday’s vote will force President Chavez to “reflect” on “what … needs to be improved upon” in Venezuela. Spain’s El País looks at gerrymandering and the issue “overrepresentation” in the Venezuelan electoral system. The Wall Street Journal, in an editorial and video commentary from Mary Anastasia O’Grady, continues to predict the end of Hugo Chavez. An editorial in the Guardian is more balanced arguing that “Chávez's reforms are undermined not so much by ideological opponents, although they exist, but by the inefficiency and waste with which they are carried out.” Their call: a move away from polarizing rhetoric. “Demonising critics as traitors to the national political movement will not turn around an economy which is in deep trouble. He needs to listen to his critics as well.” And IPS looks at the potential medium-term implications of Sunday’s vote – the possibility of a “brewing crisis,” in the news agency’s words.

· In other major news yesterday, Colombia’s inspector general has ousted Senator Piedad Cordoba from the Colombian senate, barring her from public service for 18 years for “promoting and collaborating” with the FARC. Cordoba has brokered more than a dozen hostage releases, says the AP, and has not officially been charged with any crime. Nevertheless, the Colombian inspector general apparently has the constitutional power to dismiss any member of Congress, even without proper due process. Cordoba’s attorney says the decision will be challenged but acknowledged that the senator “lacked the option of appealing to a higher authority,” in the AP’s words. For his part, the inspector general says his decision came out of “digital documents found in computers belonging to Raul Reyes.”

· The Colombian government is also claiming to have discovered new computers (15), USB drives (94), and hard disks (14) following the strikes that killed FARC leader Mono Jojoy last Thursday. According to forensic informatics specialists, the guerrilla group “restricts its use of mobile phones and other electronic devices to the minimum for fear its communications will be intercepted” thus explaining the alleged treasure trove of other technologies. How all of this stuff survives multiple bombings is another question for which I yet have no answer. Also see Time’s recent interview with President Juan Manuel Santos, following last week’s FARC strikes.

· Also on Colombia, a good report on the prospects of and hurdles facing land reform. Here’s Jorge Rojas, head of one of Colombia’s leading rights group, the Consultancy for Human Rights and Displacement (CODHES), with his hopes and doubts.

“If the legislation goes through, this will represent a democratic transformation in Colombia on a grand scale and the most ambitious land reform in recent history."

But, Rojas continues:

“We have serious doubts about the bill's viability and whether the government really has the capacity, resources and will to take away lands that were stolen by paramilitary and mafia groups who still yield power and give them back to displaced families.”

· From IPS, a report on Peru’s demand that a regional alliance against the drug trade be created. According to IPS, the Peruvian government plans to unveil the details of the plan at the 20th meeting of the Heads of National Drug Law Enforcement Agencies (HONLEA) of Latin America and the Caribbean, to be held Oct. 4-7 in Lima. “It is the Latin American countries that should shape the plan from our perspective and convene a meeting of combined efforts,” says Rómulo Pizarro, head of Peru's National Commission for Drug-Free Development and Life (DEVIDA).

· Professor Dana Frank at the Huffington Post is critical of President Obama’s decision to host Honduran President Pepe Lobo this week at the White House.

· And finally, the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg responding to Mary Anastasia O’Grady’s vitriolic opinion in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, particularly O’Grady’s claim that Cuba in some way represents a “threat to global stability” in 2010.