Just how much has US policy toward South America in recent years been dictated by worries about populism, in general, and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, in particular? And how have such concerns helped shape US views about South American regional integration?
A new wave of Wikileaks cable releases from the Southern Cone offer a few provisional answers.
Argentina’s Pagina 12 reported this weekend [Mercopress adds an English language report] on a newly released cable which raises concerns about, of all things, Mercosur – a regional trade bloc that includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Uruguay. The US Embassy in Paraguay reported in 2007 that the union was sliding toward “anti-Americanism” after leaders agreed at a May 2007 meeting in Rio de Janeiro that they would support Venezuela’s entry into the organization.
Five years later, Venezuela is still awaiting final approval for full Mercosur member status.
Página 12 calls it the first known US mention of the trade bloc as “anti-American.”
The cable entitled “A Southern Cone Perspective on Chavez’s Influence,” details Mercosur-Venezuela relations in its many facets, highlighting what it sees as pernicious aid and investment relationships between Venezuela and its Latin American neighbors to the South:
“The entry of Venezuela into Mercosur clearly altered the power balance and dynamics of the organization. Mercosur has increasingly devolved from an imperfect customs union into a more restrictive and anti-American political organization.”
The assessment concluded that many in the Southern Cone agree with Chavez that “the Southern Cone and indeed South America should establish an identity separate from U.S. hegemony,” even if Southern Cone leaders are at times “uncomfortable with the ‘us or them’” dichotomy that defines Chavez’s rhetoric. The ambassador at the US Embassy in Paraguay recommends the US make available “better resources and tools to counter Venezuela’s political efforts to disrupt democracy [and] economic strategies to strangle free trade [through] politicization of MERCOSUR, expansion of defense ties and mass media campaign.”
Interestingly, the cable published by Página 12 was written at nearly the same time as another cable from Chile (released in December 2010) about the need to counter Chavez’s influence in the sub-region. That one, written by then-US ambassador in Chile, Craig Kelly in June 2007, called for a Southern Cone strategy that could counter Chavez through “a more muscular USG presence in the region,” the promotion of “successful alternatives to Chavez’s brand of socialism,” and a strong public diplomacy that “makes loud and clear” the US message of “democracy, freer trade and investment.”
I’m not sure if or how any of these proposals were carried out but it does seem to illustrate quite well the problems of post-cold war diplomatic mission creep vis a vis a region that has continued to assert its independence from the US on issues of regional and foreign policy.
Other cables and reporting of interest for Latin America Wikileaks watchers, with a Southern Cone focus: a Página 12 report on a January 2009 cable from Sec. of State Hillary Clinton about US concerns over Iranian influence and presence in Latin America and a trove of Uruguay-related cables posted by Uruguay’s El País. The Uruguay cables include one, again from 2007, which suggests then-President Tabaré Vázquez’s brother, Jorge Vazquez (a longtime aide to his brother) was part of some sort of Venezuela-Uruguay-Iran weapons trafficking ring. (Vázquez has, unsurprisingly denied those allegations with significant vigor). The National Security Archive also has reports on some of the more recent Guatemala and Colombia documents of interest.
Also, Dawn Paley has set up a new Google Group where she’ll be highlighting some of the most interesting Latin America-related cables as they continue to be released. If interested, you can join here.
Other stories:
· The Washington Post this morning is the latest to report on a Mexican court decision last week to pull the documentary “Presumed Guilty” from Mexican theaters. The movie was apparently still showing on Monday but officials said by Tuesday, that would no longer be the case. The decision is currently being appealed, and Pablo Jimenez, a lawyer for the film distributor Cinepolis, says the case could become a “landmark” one re: freedom of speech and censorship. Thanks to the wonders of Twitter, the Post confirms that first lady Margarita Zavala saw the movie last week, tweeting “bravo for the best movie!” after returning home. After hearing that Judge Blanca Lobo Dominguez had ordered the film pulled, the first lady tweeted again: “I hope it is resolved soon.”
· Some differing opinions from Andres Oppenheimer at the Miami Herald and Andrew Selee at the Wilson Center on President Calderon’s visit to Washington DC last week, via Gancho. Should the US-Mexico relationship continue in its current form, the former suggests the meeting may mark the beginning-of-the-end for what Bob Pastor (in a refashioning of Arthur Whitaker’s 1954 book) is calling The North America Idea. To the contrary, Andrew Selee says the Calderon visit was “by all accounts, an outstanding success.” A third opinion on the matter is Laura Carlsen’s at CIP’s Americas Program, which is critical of the meeting but in ways quite different from Oppenheimer. Her principal critique: the growing militarization of the US-Mexico relationship.
· The AP reports on the official firing of Marisol Valles, the now former 20-year-old police chief Praxedis G. Guerrero who left town last week and has apparently sought asylum in the US. The municipality’s mayor officially dismissed Valles after she failed to return from an approved trip to the US last week.
· The AP with a rundown of some of the violence in Mexico Monday, including a major gun battle in the Tamaulipas town of Abasolo which took the lives of 18.
· And Insight looks at last week’s release of State Dept. and UN reports on 2010 drug production, highlighting the fact that the reports show heroin production tripling in Mexico since 2007. But according to Insight, the numbers are deceiving. Insight:
"In essence, the United States and the United Nations are saying that the Mexican drug traffickers are producing more than three times what their market share is, which should result in a significant drop in prices, a hike in the number of overdoses registered in hospitals, an uptick in people seeking treatment, and other indicators, something U.S. authorities have not seen."
For other problems with last week’s drug reports, see Just the Facts and Bloggings by Boz.
· In Panama, President Ricardo Martinelli has asked legislators to repeal a controversial mining law which would have opened up the country to foreign government investment in Panamanian mines. The law had drawn significant protest from indigenous groups, and Reuters writes that Martinelli “made the surprise announcement about the repeal at a meeting with an indigenous community in Western Panama.”
· Reuters reports on the kidnapping of 23 oil workers, employed by Canada's Talisman Energy company. FARC rebels are suspected of carrying out the kidnappings, which Reuters calls a “rare mass kidnapping.” Last month the FARC freed six hostage troops and local politicians. Before yesterday, the group still held some 15 police and soldiers.
· The LA Times and the Miami Herald both have reports on the upcoming March 20 runoff presidential vote in Haiti. The former looks at the two candidates, Michel Martelly and Mirlande Manigat, saying personality rather than ideology is what separates the two. The latter looks at the technical changes which have apparently been made in an attempt to avoid the sort of chaos that plagued the November vote.
· IPS talks with UN High Representative for Disarmament, Brazilian Sergio Duarte, about weapons spending in the region, specifically what he sees as a contradiction between calls for a reduction in total military spending and increases in new purchases.
· In economic news, the Wall Street Journal says Brazil’s per capita income surpassed that of Mexico in 2010. Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, is the latest IMF official to offer an assessment of Latin America’s economic future, at Mercopress. A piece at The Diplomat looks at possible long-term sustainability of Venezuela-China economic relations. Mercopress says rising food prices are most affecting Venezuela, Bolivia, and Argentina within Latin America. Brazil, meanwhile, is taking new measures to stave off a possible food crisis. The Financial Times (here and here) reports on the country’s plans to restrict purchases of agricultural land by foreign governments or state-owned companies. “Genuine” private investors will apparently be as welcome before. Many analysts say the new law is directly aimed at the Chinese.
· And finally, following up on yesterday’s headline, IPS talks with a variety of experts about Venezuela’s attempt at mediation in Libya.
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