Preparing for Calderon in Washington

As Washington awaits Felipe Calderon’s much anticipated visit tomorrow, the web has various reports about what the trip will mean for both the US and its southern neighbor. Tomorrow’s meeting will be the fifth between the President Calderon and President Barack Obama, and while the Mexican government has been trying to downplay the importance of the meeting, rising concerns about drug violence, which took first life of a US official working in Mexico just over one week ago, will make tomorrow’s meetings considerably more high profile than previous encounters.

A good place to start this morning is BBC Mundo’s Spanish-language coverage of the trip (here, here, here and here), which contends that Calderon’s principal objective tomorrow will be convincing the White House that it should more forcefully confront those elements of the transnational organized crime complex operating in the US. For starters, that will likely translate into Mexico pushing the US to move on new anti-gun legislation, including the renewal of an assault weapons rifle ban which expired in 2004. It’s been estimated that some ninety-percent of weapons used by Mexican cartels come from the US. The twisted irony of this reality revealed itself earlier this week when federal officials said the military-style handgun used to attack two ICE agents in San Luis Potosí had been purchased by a weapons-trafficking ring in near Dallas.

The Houston Chronicle yesterday and the LA Times today have reports on that issue, including news that three arrests were made this week in Texas in relation to that sale and apparently around 40 others like it. The latter paper also ran an editorial yesterday, commenting on a Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives presidential request that it be allowed to “track bulk sales of semiautomatic long guns.” The LA Times says the new rule would “require the 8,500 licensed gun shops in Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas to report to the agency any sale of two or more rifles of greater than .22 caliber to the same person over five days.” It suggests Obama not only approve the very modest request but expand it to gun sellers across the country.

From the US side, the BBC says there are expectations from some that the US increasingly use promised aid to pressure the Calderon government into more actively pursuing real structural reforms of both judicial and security institutions in the country. Many analysts note that in recent months increased US attention has been placed on getting Mexico to finally begin a series of long-awaited institutional reform processes. According to Eric Olson of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, strengthening institutions must be at the center of any plan to reduce the activity of organized criminal groups. Olson, to the BBC:

“It won’t be the case that Washington tells Mexico it’s not doing one thing and should do something else, but rather Washington will be waiting for reforms to be deepened and made more real.”

Interestingly, its President Calderon’s meeting with House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) which the AP says may be his most important Thursday – an opportunity for the president to defend US security aid to Mexico to the leader of a budget-cutting, Republican-led House. Others suggest issues of immigration, economics, and the environment will also find their way onto Thursday’s agenda, even if they remain overshadowed by security matters.

Shannon O’Neil at the Council on Foreign Relations has more pre-meeting analysis. Also, a new piece worth reading from the Brookings Institution’s Kevin Casas-Zamora in Mexico’s Nexos which, like others before it, argues a radical change in Mexico’s anti-crime/anti-drug policies is needed. Five issues must be at the center of a new strategy, Casas-Zamora maintains: a new diagnosis of the problem; a redefinition of how progress is measured; and a rethinking of how to reduce impunity, how to improve the coordination between the federal government and sub-national authorities, and how to contain territorial violence.

Quickly running through other Mexico drug war-related stories:

· LAHT on new anti-crime information sharing efforts agreed to between El Salvador and Mexico this week. The New York Times on the arrest of Sergio Antonio Mora, the Zetas alleged regional commander for San Luis Potosí. The AP on the creation of a new Chihuahua state welfare fund for children orphaned by violence in the state. El Blog del Narco with more analysis of former PRI governor Sócrates Rizzo’s statements last week about a PRI-narco pact during the 1990s. The New York Times on another ex-Mexican official, former Tlalmanalco mayor, Raúl Sánchez Reyes, arrested Tuesday after being fingered by La Familia as a collaborator with the drug gang. The AP on the discovery of 17 new bodies in a clandestine grave in Guerrero. EFE on the discovery of five bodies hanging from a bridge in Sinaloa. And EFE on President Calderon’s new plan to make Mexico the world’s No. 5 tourist destination by 2018.

· Infolatam also has an interesting look at the Mexican Left, specifically some recent political differences between Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard over the direction and leadership of the PRD.

· The BBC reports that the UN’s International Narcotics Control Board has decided to remove Colombia from its list of countries requiring “special observation” because of improvements made to state institutions, particularly the Colombian justice system. The BBC:

“According to the UN's 2010 World Drug Report, coca cultivation in Colombia decreased by 58% between 2000 and 2009, mainly due to large-scale eradication. The report estimates that in 2009, Colombia eradicated 168,000 hectares of coca…The report also says Colombia has seized more drugs than any other state in the world over the past decade.”

As usual, however, the balloon effect remains very much in-effect, as coca production in nearby Peru is reported to have surged 55% over the last decade.

· With more on Peru – specifically some of the “unfulfilled promises” of post-Truth and Justice Commission Peru – Jo-Marie Burt has a recent piece in E-Mesiférica, reposted by WOLA.

· WOLA also seems to be coming out with a critical position toward the Honduran government’s decision this week to send its military to the streets to carry out joint patrols with the country’s police forces. Honduras Culture and Politics has more on why such this new security policy will fail to address the fundamental problems of insecurity in the country. Meanwhile, El Heraldo reports that the country’s sub-secretary for security has made an official budget request of 548 lempiras to implement a new plan called “intelligent cities” which, among other things, would increase state surveillance capacities in select cities. Another 200 million lempiras was requested to strengthen the country’s police. More from the paper on proposed reforms to the penal code which have drawn significant and immediate criticism, particularly from human rights officials and advocates.

· The Rev. Jesse Jackson made a public appeal to the Cuban government on Tuesday, asking that Cuba release USAID contractor Alan Gross from prison. The appeal comes just as Gross’s trial is set to begin Friday. Jackson: “I hope that Raul (Castro) and the governing officials see the advantage of letting him go. Every time a prisoner is let go, it opens the door for increased dialogue and possibilities.” Jackson even offered to mediate the Gross’s release in Cuba, should it be necessary. In 1984, the Miami Herald notes that that the Reverend helped negotiate the release of 26 Cuban prisoners.

· Chris Sabatini argues at AQ that the Arab revolution will not be traveling to Cuba anytime soon. Interestingly, he says one of the reasons for this is US policy, particularly longtime US restrictions on telecommunications investment on the island.

· Imran Garda at Al-Jazeera and Prof. Mike Gonzalez at The Guardian have criticisms of Hugo Chavez and some others on the Latin American Left (Daniel Ortega and the Fidel Castro) for their positions on Libya. Al-Jazeera also reports on Chavez’s proposal for some still undefined sort of “international peace commission” to deal with growing violence in Libya. Dow Jones, meanwhile, reports on Brazil’s decision earlier this week to support UN sanctions against the Libyan government. Interestingly it also expressed its desire that an investigation into any possible crimes against humanity committed by the Gaddafi government be handled by the International Criminal Court.

· EFE reports that the US is currently investigating Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA to see if it is violating US and international sanctions against Iran. US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy, Sanctions and Basic Products, Robert Cekuta apparently notified the Venezuelan embassy about the investigation recently. Sources at DOS confirmed reports of that investigation to EFE this week – days after US Assistant Secretary of State Arturo Valenzuela was grilled by Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) about the issue during a House hearing about the region. More from Venezuela’s El Nacional.

Finally, I highly recommend audio webcasts of last month’s Tulane University conference on Venezuela. A diverse group of scholars presented, among them Steve Ellner, Daniel Levine, Margarita Lopez Maya, Daniel Hellinger, David Smilde, and Mark Weisbrot, The audio to most of the talks is available here.