Humala Moves Into the Lead in Five-Way Peru Race

Two weeks before an April 10 first-round vote in Peru, Ollanta Humala has risen to the top of a five-person race according to a two new polls released Sunday. Humala, a former military officer often described as a “left-leaning nationalist,” has the support the 21.2% of Peruvians, according to a new CPI poll sponsored by RPP radio and conducted between March 21 and 24. That’s up from nearly six percentage points from another CPI poll released just one week ago in which Humala was polling in fourth position.

This week’s CPI poll puts congresswoman Keiko Fujimori in second at 19.9%, Alejandro Toledo falls to third at 18.6% while economist Pedro Pablo Kucyznski and former Lima mayor Luis Castaneda are now running in a close fourth and fifth position with 16.1% and 15.5%, respectively.

A second poll, released by Ipsos-Apoyo on Sunday, confirmed Humala’s rise. That poll has Humala running in first with 21.2%. He’s followed closely in that poll by Fujimori (20.7%) and Toledo (20.1%). (Note: Ipsos numbers have been corrected).

La Républica points out that 30% of Peruvians still remain undecided re: their presidential choice, adding that this year’s presidential race is shaping up to be the most unpredictable since 1962.

Interestingly, the only candidate who appears able to beat all others in a possible second-round is Luis Castaneda – a man whose first-round stock has fallen precipitously in recent weeks. Conversely, the only candidate who would lose most – if not all – hypothetical second-round match-ups at the current moment is Ollanta Humala.

But nevertheless, it’s towards Humala – along with his ideological opposite Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) -- that English-language accounts have turned their focused in recent days. The AP and Reuters this morning focus on the former, noting the “distance” Humala has attempted to put between himself and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. It also highlights the fear-mongering which has kicked into high gear by the right-wing Peruvian media. In recent days the right-leaning daily El Comercio, for example, has, in the AP’s words, “painted [Humala] a socialist who would ‘try to nationalize companies’ and impose the very model that led to the collapse of eastern European economies under Soviet rule.”

On this point, it’s worth revisiting two talks Humala gave in the United States last Fall – one at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington in September and another at the New School in New York City in October (short video here and a report from Latin America News Dispatch here). It’s also interesting to note that Humala has won over – at least in part – his former political rival, current President Alan Garcia, who spoke with Colombia’s El Tiempo about a variety of issues, including the upcoming election, over the weekend. More from La República.

On PPK, I’ll link again to the profile the Economist did last week, highlighting the self-proclaimed millionaire’s former work at the IMF, the World Bank, and as a Wall Street investment banker. (PPK was also Alejandro Toledo’s Finance Minister and Prime Minister and is also apparently an accomplished flautist). The magazine also mentions the fact that PPK holds dual US and Peruvian citizenship – a particularly sensitive issue in Peru given its recent past and something PPK now says he will give up, should he be elected.

Weekend bullet points:

· Reuters reports that former US president Jimmy Carter, along with his wife Rosalynn, will be traveling to Cuba today for a three-day visit. According to the news agency, the trip is expected to include talks with government officials and religious leaders (both Jewish and Catholic) about the state of US-Cuba relations. A meeting between Carter and Raul Castro is currently set to take place Tuesday afternoon. Former president Carter’s Atlanta-based NGO, the Carter Center, said the trip was a “private, non-governmental” one but there is significant speculation that the visit could lay the groundwork for the eventual release of imprisoned USAID contractor Alan Gross. In its weekly Cuba newsletter last Friday, the Center for Democracy in the Americas had more – including mention of the fact that Carter was the first US president (sitting or former) to the visit the island since 1928 when he traveled to Havana in 2002. Andres Oppenheimer also spoke with President Barack Obama recently about US-Cuba relations. He writes in the Miami Herald that Obama seemed uneager to discuss any new gestures he might make toward the Castro government. We’ll see if that changes after the Carter visit.

· The Carter trip also comes just weeks before the Cuban Communist Party holds its first congress since 1997. The Congress is expected to tackle issues of economic reform, in particular, and Reuters reports this weekend that Cuban Economy Minister Marino Murillo stepped down from his post on Friday to oversee the preparation of those reforms.

· In Honduras, the AP reports that Sunday President Porfirio Lobo has threatened to suspend, without pay, those teachers who fail to return to their classes today (Monday). If teachers do not return by April 4, Lobo says he will fire those who remain on strike and dissolve the teacher’s union. Many teachers say their protest will go on. Jaime Rodriguez, president of the middle-school teachers’ union tells the AP, “We are in the streets and we will stay there.” Others say Lobo’s threats are only creating greater protest intensification. Honduras’s 14,000-member hospital workers union vowed to join the strike on Monday, along with other social movements, while the FNRP is calling for a general strike to begin on Wednesday. The strikes – the largest public protests the country has seen since those directly related to the June 2009 coup – began three weeks ago to demand over six months of unpaid wages be paid and to oppose a new education law that teachers and students believe threatens the country’s public education system.

· In addition to protests, the AP says a Honduran supreme court judge dismissed three arrest warrants against former president Manuel Zelaya on Friday, apparently allowing Zelaya to return to Honduras without the threat of detention. However, the Friday ruling did not throw out corruption charges against the former president. Reading Zelaya’s statements after the Friday decision, it does not yet appear that his return from exile is imminent.

· In Mexico, the New York Times examines US-Mexico divisions made manifest in the resignation of US Ambassador to Mexico, Carlos Pascual. Mary Anastasia O’Grady also comments in the Wall Street Journal, siding with Pascual.

· The LA Times reports on a recent wave of migrations from Mexico’s north to its capital, Mexico City, because of drug violence. According to the paper, despite reports of cartel activity in and around DF, traffickers remain cognizant of “the risks of igniting major provocations in a city that is home to the federal police, army, navy and intelligence services, not to mention many of the cartel leaders' families.” Meanwhile, Al-Jazeera reports on a new study from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre [IDMC] which estimates that some 230,000 people have been displaced by Mexico’s drug violence. About half, the study concludes, appear to have taken refuge in the US. More from AP.

· Juarez’s El Diario joined Mexican publications La Jornada, Reforma, and Proceso in not signing last week’s reporting guidelines pact. Animal Politico collects some initial opinions about the aforementioned pact from Mexican journalists and activists – most of whom are quite skeptical.

· Al-Jazeera’s Brazil correspondent Gabriel Elizondo examines what he calls “Brazil’s slow break with Iran.” A-J: “In the surest sign yet of a new Brazilian posture vis-à-vis Iran, Brazil voted on Thursday in the UN Human Rights Council to authorize a resolution for a special rapporteur to investigate possible human rights abuses in Iran. It’s the first time in a decade that Brazil has voted for anything significant that runs counter to the current Iranian government’s liking.”

· For his part, Lula da Silva was in Montevideo this weekend to celebrate the 40^th anniversary of Frente Amplio’s birth. Mercopress reports in English (here and here); Uruguay’s La Republica (here and here) in Spanish.

· After issuing somewhat ridiculous words of praise for Syria’s Bashar Assad Sunday, Hugo Chavez begins a five country tour of the region today, starting in Argentina before visiting the aforementioned Uruguay, Bolivia, Colombia, and also Brazil. Mercopress reports. The trip follows an anniversary celebration of Mercosur’s creation 20 years ago, which took place over the weekend in Paraguay. The issue of Venezuela’s entry into the bloc – something only Paraguay continues to hold up – was, unexpectedly, much discussed. On that matter, TeleSur has a good interview with one of Uruguay’s most respected academics, historian and political scientist Gerardo Caetano, who lays out the case in favor of Venezuela’s entry.

· Free Speech Radio News looks at a new probe being launched by human rights activists in Argentina against US and international financial institutions which may have supported Argentina’s military dictatorship from 1976 to 1983.

· The Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas posts a statement from the World Association of Community Radio Broadcasters condemning the “criminalization” of local radio stations in Mexico after two such stations were pulled from the air by Mexican authorities last week.

· And finally Counterpoint, a new magazine which appears to be funded by the Center for American Progress, reports on Georgetown University’s Latin American Board, founded and chaired by former Spanish president José María Aznar and, if the report’s got it right, the training ground for a new generation of Latin American free marketeers.