25% Agreement Reached Between Coup Gov't and Zelaya Backers; But Still Much to Decide

Face to face talks between representatives of de facto President Roberto Micheletti and ousted President Manuel Zelaya are set to continue Friday at Tegucigalpa’s Clarion Hotel, even after a delegation of Latin and North American diplomats failed to facilitate a solution to the Honduran crisis during Wednesday talks. Mayra Mejia, one of Zelaya's representatives says the two sides will stay at the negotiating table through the weekend, and perhaps longer, if necessary. According to the AP, Mejia went on to say the two sides had reached agreement on 25 percent of the issues under debate, although she wouldn't disclose more specifics. Reuters reports that another Zelaya, negotiator, Juan Barahona, has hinted that Mr. Zelaya’s reinstatement as President still remains the most contentious issue between the two sides. “We are very pessimistic. We don't see any positive feeling in the position of the coup leaders. They are not considering the restitution of Zelaya,” Barahona recently remarked. CNN also reports that Mr. Barahona and Vilma Morales, a third Zelaya representative, have indicated that the Micheletti regime believes all of the points in the proposed accord should be debated while the ousted government “wants agreement on Zelaya’s return to the presidency before discussing the rest of the document.”

The OAS’s quick departure from Tegucigalpa may strike some as strange but according to Costa Rican foreign minister, Bruno Stagno, it is imperative that a solution to the crisis be “exclusively Honduran.” “This is a divided family and they have to reconcile,” Stagno said Thursday. Peter Kent, Canada’s minister of state for the Americas, insisted that the OAS visit was not a failure in any way. “We had both sides speak to each other in a positive way. This was really only the first step in a much longer process.” In Washington, D.C., Rep. Jan Schakowsky warns (and Honduras’s La Tribuna reports), that a failure of OAS-initiated talks would only “prolong the crisis and isolation of the country [of Honduras].

Like the New York Times yesterday, the Washington Post today looks at the coup regime’s band of close friends in high places. Mary Beth Sheridan writes, “the de facto Honduran government and its allies have spent at least $600,000 [the NYT reported just $400,000 yesterday] on public-relations experts and lobbyists from both parties, including Lanny Davis, former special counsel to President Bill Clinton” [More on Lanny Davis later]. According to one anonymous U.S. official, the words of various pro-Micheletti congressmen and senators “gives [the de facto government] this hope that you can hang on. It’s not helpful.” And according to CFR’s Julia Sweig the actions of some Republicans goes well beyond Latin American, given the fact that many, like Sen. Jim DeMint, have no prior interest in Latin American affairs. “It’s about the Republicans using what they can to attack the administration. It’s definitely bigger than Latin America.” DeMint has denied such allegations, however. “This is not about Obama. This is about foreign policy,” he tells the Post.

In other Honduras-related items this morning, the aforementioned Lanny Davis is given an op-ed slot at the Wall Street Journal today. The lobbyist (paid some $350,000 to represent Honduran business interests, according to the Post’s reporting), argues the following: “A successful resolution to the Guaymuras Dialogue should ensure: the resignation, after the election, of Mr. Micheletti and renunciation by Mr. Zelaya of his intention to be restored as president; the succession, as provided by the constitution, of a caretaker president between election day and inauguration day; a conciliation government representing all segments of civil society; and most importantly, binding commitments to a series of constitutional and economic reforms aimed at more equitable distribution of wealth.” He goes on: “If Mr. Zelaya refuses to ‘resign’ or renounce his intention to be restored, which is a distinct possibility, one would hope that the U.S. and other nations of the OAS and EU would no longer feel compelled to insist on his reinstatement. They should then recognize the election of the new president, and the crisis would truly be over.”

The LA Times, in a Friday editorial, has a different argument. “U.S. and OAS officials must do everything in their power to persuade the Micheletti camp to relent and allow Zelaya's return. And they must convince Zelaya that there would be zero tolerance for any attempt to stay in power,” the paper argues. They add that one idea being floated around is the creation of a “constitutional requirement that control over the military pass to the Supreme Electoral Council a month before elections” to quell coup regime fears that Zelaya might manipulate the military before scheduled elections.

At The Nation, Greg Grandin looks to what might come after the crisis, writing: “the coup--along with Zelaya's surprise return--has created a lose-lose situation for Honduran elites. If they yield to international pressure and negotiate Zelaya's symbolic restoration, it would legitimize the November elections but would also embolden the left and discredit the coup plotters--that is, nearly all of Honduras' governing class. If they force Zelaya back into exile, arrest him or keep him holed up in the Brazilian Embassy, then the popular movement that has gained momentum over the past three months will demand a constitutional convention as the only solution to re-establish legitimacy. In other words, the very issue that served as the spark of the crisis--Zelaya's attempt to build support for a constituent assembly to reform Honduras' notoriously undemocratic charter--may be the only way to settle it.”

And Rosemary Joyce reports on a new decree announced Monday by the Micheletti regime to once again limit the free media in Honduras.

Around the region today:

· The AP reports that Venezuela and Great Britain have reaffirmed counter-narcotics cooperation. The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on the topic and Chris Bryant, of the British Foreign Office, “congratulated [Hugo] Chavez's government on stepping up control over ports and airports and destroying clandestine drug labs on the border with Colombia.”

· The mayor of the small Mexican border town of Palomas was kidnapped and murdered this week. According to the AP, the victim, Estanislao Garcia Santelis, “had long complained about the drug traffickers and migrant smugglers active around Palomas.”

· Multiple attacks on police officers in Guatemala have taken the lives of at least two and wounded three others. Officials say the acts were retaliation for security crackdowns on gangs in the country.

· And in the Miami Herald Andres Oppenheimer comments on Mexico, saying it’s not economics which is the country’s most pressing problem, but rather politics. “Mexico's biggest problem is that President Felipe Calderón's government has its hands tied and can do very little to solve these problems. Because of an outdated political system, Mexico has a weak president who can't pass meaningful reforms through Congress.” He goes on to argue for a major reform that introduces a runoff election in Mexican politics or creates the job of a prime minister.

Thursday, October 8 2009, State Dept. Press Briefing Re: Honduras

QUESTION: Can we go to Honduras or --

MR. KELLY: Honduras, sure.

QUESTION: It seems by the reports that the Organizational States presence there is not getting any results by the moment. I don’t know if you have more updates. And also --

MR. KELLY: Well --

QUESTION: -- it seems, I don’t know, to me – and also I was reading some reports in so many countries of Latin America that the – it’s surprising that you have there in that meeting the secretary of the hemisphere – acting secretary of the hemisphere Thomas Shannon?

MR. KELLY: Assistant Secretary.

QUESTION: Assistant Secretary. And Micheletti is also keeping his word of not changing nothing. So it’s a very strange situation. What’s going on? He doesn’t want to sign the San Jose.

MR. KELLY: Right.

QUESTION: And they go there with this mission of – very high-profile --

MR. KELLY: Right.

QUESTION: -- five minister of external relations of five countries – Canada, the U.S. – and he’s still maintaining that position. What’s --

MR. KELLY: Yeah. Well, actually, I would take issue with your characterization. I understand that there was a positive tone in the meetings, that there was a meeting – I think for the first time – a meeting mediated by the OAS ministers between the two sides. And I think that’s important. I think it’s important that they’ve initiated a direct dialogue.

And the ministers will leave, or perhaps have already left, but they’re leaving behind an OAS secretariat to continue to help facilitate this direct dialogue. And I think that’s important that they’re able to establish this face-to-face meeting between the two sides. So I don’t want to raise expectations too high here or anything, but I think it was a little more productive than you seem to characterize it.

QUESTION: I’m sorry, go ahead.

QUESTION: I just wanted to make a follow-up. Are you aware of a proposal to bring government junta to Honduras, try to solve the political crisis there? Are you aware of that?

MR. KELLY: I’m not aware of that. The main thing for us is that the two sides break this impasse, and by this direct meeting, we have some hope that maybe they are moving towards this. But the main thing is for them both to agree with the facilitation of the OAS to some kind of lasting solution to this crisis. I mean, the people of Honduras deserve nothing less.

QUESTION: And Mr. Crowley said yesterday that Venezuela needs to cooperate in a more constructive way in the region. What did he mean by that? It was regarding Honduras, or could you be more specific?

MR. KELLY: (Laughter.) I agree with my boss that Honduras needs to play a constructive role. We’re calling on all the countries in the region to play a --

QUESTION: Venezuela.

QUESTION: Not Honduras.

QUESTION: Venezuela.

QUESTION: Venezuela.

MR. KELLY: Venezuela.

QUESTION: Okay.

MR. KELLY: That Venezuela needs to play a constructive role. This is an important crisis that we need to resolve, that the – I think the region is moving in a good direction, in moving towards a more inclusive and democratic political system in these countries. And we would hope that Venezuela would play a more productive role.

I’ll take --

QUESTION: Just on Honduras or --

MR. KELLY: Oh, in general, but also in Honduras. And I’m going to take one more question, because we have Assistant Secretary Gordon waiting for us.

QUESTION: Well, what do you see as a productive role?

MR. KELLY: Sorry?

QUESTION: Can you give an example of what do you mean by a more productive role for --

MR. KELLY: For Venezuela, you mean?

QUESTION: Yeah.

MR. KELLY: Well, I think – first of all, I think that they need to open up their own democracy. They need to stop intimidation of media. They need to encourage more debate, more political debate within Venezuela, and play a more productive role in the region. I think that Mr. Crowley mentioned that Venezuela should concentrate more on its – in its region and not pay so much attention to what’s going on in Iran and other countries.

Last question to Jill. Go ahead.

QUESTION: Ian, this has been dragging on for so long. Why are we not to draw the conclusion that it’s dragging on because the U.S. won’t do anything – really do anything about this because there is significant support for the members of the coup, business connections with the United States, conservative organizations that support the coup that do not like Zelaya. So why are we not supposed to, you know, draw some conclusion that it’s simply foot-dragging on the part of this Administration?

MR. KELLY: Boy, I don’t see this Administration as dragging its feet at all. I mean, we have had a very consistent principle here of supporting the idea of a democratic and constitutional order, that you had a coup where the democratically elected leader was (inaudible). But in the final analysis, this is not about us. This is really about (inaudible) of us supporting a multilateral process, of supporting the OAS in its efforts to try and facilitate a solution.