Deal or no deal? From Honduras, mixed signals came out of Wednesday’s round of negotiations as Zelaya representative Victor Meza told reporters that a “tentative deal” had been struck with the Micheletti regime [Spain’s El País prints the more complete statements issued by Zelaya and Micheletti negotiators about having/not having reached some sort of agreement Wednesday]. However, as the New York Times and many others write, soon thereafter, Mr. Micheletti insisted no formal agreement had yet been struck. Mr. Micheletti remarked late Wednesday: “As I understand it, Zelaya is asking that Congress determine if he can return or not. But it is the Supreme Court that has to decide.” Dialogue now is expected to continue on through Thursday—the original deadline set by Mr. Zelaya for signing an accord.
Beyond the confusion, there are some emerging details, however. According to the Wall Street Journal Meza said the opposing sides “have agreed on one unified text that will be discussed and analyzed by President Zelaya and [interim President Roberto] Micheletti.” He went on to add, in very careful language, that “I wouldn't talk of an end to the crisis, but of an exit, yes.” One deputy in the Honduran Congress later spoke to the paper, saying there’s now “95%” consensus. The deputy, Antonio Rivera, added that the only thing that remains is deciding “who would be president,” suggesting that person would be neither Mr. Micheletti nor Mr. Zelaya. And then he offered more details to the WSJ. Rivera revealed that Mr. Micheletti has suggested that José Alfredo Saavedra, his own successor as president of the Honduran Congress take over the presidency through November elections while Mr. Zelaya offered up Victor Meza himself to be the country’s temporary president. Moreover, the WSJ says this idea—that neither Mr. Zelaya nor Micheletti continue on as president—came from the Zelaya negotiating team, which also proposed the temporary governing body be composed of the presidents of the Congress and the president of the Supreme Court.
There was also optimism in the words of one prominent coup backer, Gen Romeo Vázquez, who told Honduran radio Wednesday that “We have advanced a lot. We are almost at the end of the crisis.” Yet again, the OAS spoke of “optimism” as well. “I don't want to be excessively optimistic ... but I think there have been significant advances that allow us to hope for a Honduran solution to a Honduran crisis,” José Miguel Insulza told reporters yesterday. And, as La Tribuna reports in its “Minuto a Minuto” side bar, Mr. Zelaya’s own spokesperson has now come out and said there is “100%” consensus between the two sides of the current crisis, adding they’ve now entered the phase of “political validation.”
Meanwhile, in most Honduran papers this morning the potential end to the crisis is not even the top story as Honduras also qualified for the World Cup Wednesday. The still de facto president, Roberto Micheletti, said the country should celebrate Thursday, declaring the day a national holiday. Would this be Mr. Micheletti’s last presidential decree? Only time will tell.
[Two further notes on Honduras. I wrote yesterday about a supposed “UN” report that seemed to legitimize the ouster of Mel Zelaya in June and was subsequently publicized in many Honduran papers. The Spokesperson for the Sec. General issued a statement yesterday in response, calling the report “highly misleading.” “The Department of Political Affairs routinely receives reports and analyses of this type from consultants, academics and other experts. But its views are strictly in line with that outlined in the General Assembly Resolution,” the UN maintains. More on the matter by Rosemary Joyce at her blog. And finally the AP writes this morning that Honduran police are saying drug trafficking has increased through their country since the U.S. limited military cooperation following the June coup].
Around the region this morning:
· CNN continues to report from Colombia on violence in that country, this time sitting down for interviews with a number of “hit men/sicarios” in Medellin.
· The AP reports that the Mexican Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that the governor of the state of Oaxaca is responsible for human rights abuses committed during 2006 protests that left at least a dozen people dead. According to the news service, the ruling, however, has no binding consequences for Oaxaca Gov. Ulises Ruiz.
· Also from Mexico, the LA Times has a report on migration through Central America to Mexico. The paper writes: “Church and human rights groups say the migrants passing through [Mexico] are falling prey to kidnappers, extortionists and killers while the Mexican government does little to protect them. The national Human Rights Commission says it has recorded, in the last three years, 10,000 kidnappings of migrants, who are most frequently seized by predatory gangs who demand money from the victims' families in their home countries.”
· The Miami Herald has news on further U.S.-Cuba developments. The Spanish language “Nuevo Herald” writes “Cuba recently gave a top State Department official a long-blocked permission to visit dual U.S.-Cuban citizens jailed on the island -- but it did not accept a U.S. offer to relax travel restrictions on each other's diplomats.” The paper calls the moves an example of “both the opportunities and limits for improved relations facing the new governments of Barack Obama and Raúl Castro.”
· And finally, also in the MH, an opinion by Bernice Robertson of the International Crisis Group calls on the UN to form a more coherent strategy that links “international stabilization efforts with support for development and economic growth” in Haiti. The UN recently renewed its peacekeeping mission in the country, but according to Robertson, the international body must seek a more “integrated mission.” “Despite the welcome changes in the mandate, the Security Council should have better used its unique opportunity on Tuesday to rigorously link stabilization and development on a single agenda in Haiti, by strengthening the U.N. country team's integration with MINUSTAH.”
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