Micheletti and Zelaya Negotiators Reach 90% Agreement as One Zelaya Rep. Resigns

After a long weekend break, the “Guaymuras Dialogue” restarted Tuesday morning in Tegucigalpa and by the end of the day, reports from both sides of the negotiating table indicated that agreement on “90%” of the issues under debate had been reached (some are reporting this represents agreement on 7 of 8 points under consideration, while others say 90% represents agreement on 7 of 12 points). Thus, it would seem that when meetings commence at 9am local time today, all that remains on the table is a debate over the reinstatement of Mel Zelaya to the presidency—the most contentious point of all. On this issue, La Tribuna reports that the delegation representing Roberto Micheletti plans to first present a counterproposal to the reinstatement of Mr. Zelaya, as is currently outlined in the Oscar Arias-brokered “San José Accords.” Speaking with the press Tuesday, one Zelaya representative, Victor Meza, remarked that “The reinstatement of President Zelaya has been under consideration since the first day of negotiation, but everything will depend on today’s negotiations. In the present moment I cannot get ahead of myself because I do not know what we’re going to receive from those who represent Mr. Micheletti.” Nevertheless, Meza spoke with rare optimism Tuesday, saying “there’s a cordial and pleasant negotiating spirit in the talks, and we’re optimistic that we’ll be able to hand the country back through an acceptable political and legal agreement.” And even Mr. Zelaya, very pessimistic about the trajectory of talks in recent days, has begun to offer small hints of optimism. “I simply do not trust him [Micheletti], but there is always hope,” says Zelaya. “God exists and so do miracles.”

For his part, Meza also reiterated Tuesday that Mr. Zelaya had agreed not to push forward with the idea of holding a Constituent Assembly. Indeed, it was this issue which led to a partial fracture within the Zelaya camp. Juan Barahona, a social movement leader and active member of the National Front Against the Coup, said he could no longer participate in talks after Mr. Zelaya conceded on this point. And Mr. Barahona was immediately replaced by lawyer Rodil Rivera. Barahona insisted, however, that his resignation did not signify a personal break with Mr. Zelaya. “I didn’t sign because I am not in agreement. We are never going to stop promoting a Constitutional Assembly. But we continue support President Zelaya.” [Nevertheless, business elites, particularly Adolfo Facussé, said they were glad Mr. Barahona stepped down Tuesday. And “Honduras Coup 2009,” Rosemary Joyce has more on why Barahona’s resignation does not necessarily represent a breakdown of popular support for Mr. Zelaya]. In addition, El Faro reports that Tuesday talks brought agreement around a proposal to form a commission that would investigate the facts surrounding the June 28 ouster of President Zelaya, as outlined in the San José Accords (according to the Arias plan the Inter-American Human Rights Institute would be charged with conducting such an investigation). And AFP writes that other points of agreement include 1. Having the military come under the authority of the electoral commission until elections are held and 2. Asking the international community to drop those sanctions placed on Honduras after the coup. This is in addition to agreements rejecting amnesty for both sides and an agreement on forming a national unity government.

Finally, there is also mention this morning in Honduran papers of a second study, similar to the one conducted by the Law Library at the Library of Congress, which allegedly concludes the June 28 ouster of Mel Zelaya was “constitutional and in accord with Honduran laws.” The study was produced by the Department of Political Affairs at the United Nations, reports indicate, but I’ve yet to see it mentioned elsewhere.

Around the region today:

· Time magazine features a story this week on Iran-Venezuela relationships, asking how big a concern should Venezuela be? According to Johanna Mendelson Forman, a senior associate for the Americas at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., “it's still too early to tell what Venezuela is really doing.”

· The AP writes that the Binational Task Force on the United States-Mexico Border, made up of both U.S. and Mexican officials, has concluded that the United States should reinstate a Clinton-era ban on assault weapons to prevent such guns from reaching Mexican drug cartels. Other recommendations from the study group include restructuring Mexico's law enforcement operations to create a counterpart to the U.S. Border Patrol, increasing U.S. assistance to Mexico to build up law enforcement and reducing demand for drugs in the United States through more treatment programs.

· The Miami Herald writes that, in the face of an economic recession, the Cuban government has “scaled back” its socialist economic policies in order to “save itself.” Changes have included restructuring the agricultural sector and rethinking policies like “deep subsidies for everyone.”

· BBC World reports on the training of some 1000 new security officials in Venezuela who, on Tuesday, became part of a new national police body in the country.

· And CNN reports on drug violence in Medellin, Colombia apparently being sparked by the arrest of older drug lords in the city and a power vacuum which has followed.