New poll numbers, obtained by the polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (from Oct. 9-13), show that ousted Honduran president Mel Zelaya has retained a significant amount of public support since the June 28 coup that removed him from office. According to survey numbers, 60 percent of the Honduran public now disapproves of the removal of Mr. Zelaya (just 38 percent still support the move). And now two-thirds of Hondurans approve of Zelaya’s performance as president; 19% said he had performed “excellently” while 48% said his performance had been “good.” In contrast, by a margin of 2-1, Hondurans have a negative opinion of the man who supplanted Zelaya, Roberto Micheletti. But nevertheless, a strong majority (81%) believes elections ought to take place in November and some 54% of Hondurans appear to even believe such elections would be legitimate under the current de facto regime.
The full survey data here also shows some interesting numbers related to re-election and the idea of a constituent assembly. When asked if the Honduran constitution should be amended to allow for re-election, 55% said “yes” (43% oppose the idea) while holding a constituent assembly is the most desirable way to deal with the current political crisis, according to most Hondurans [54% say a constituent assembly should be pursued to end the crisis].
These new—and very interesting numbers—come as talks to restore Mr. Zelaya remain on life support. On Sunday, Zelaya went so far as to call the actions of Mr. Micheletti last week a “second coup d’etat,” even while maintaining that an agreement might still be reached before November elections. The OAS’s lead negotiator in Honduras, John Biehl, also tried to remain optimistic. “The position of Hondurans in favor of reaching a peaceful accord is overwhelming,” said Biehl over the weekend. But, at the same time, there were new calls this weekend for an electoral boycott from some sectors of both the Honduran Left and Zelaya’s own liberal party. According to Tiempo some 300 Liberal candidates (six of them being congressional candidates) for various public offices said this weekend that they would not participate in November elections without Zelaya’s restoration. This has led the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) in Honduras to threaten those who instigate a general boycott of elections with jail time.
Meanwhile, delegates of the Carter Center, visiting Honduras last week, also expressed their worries about the electoral process being free and fair, and said they would not send election observers in November unless the current political crisis was resolved prior.
Finally, The Guardian has a terrific report from Fabiano Maisonnave, held up with the Zelaya team inside the Brazilian embassy for the last month. Maisonnave describes in incredible detail what life inside the embassy has been like. He writes: “The interim government only allows certain kinds of food and goods. Forbidden items include cigarettes, new clothes, sleeping bags, pillows, footballs, batteries, iPods, televisions, cell phones, refrigerators, raincoats, prescription drugs: things, in other words, which could improve the quality of life. Sniffer dogs are used to check that food does not contain drugs. Sometimes police keep soft drinks and desserts for themselves. Zelaya's food comes separately and is prepared by his daughter because he fears being poisoned. Three weeks ago, checks took so long that the food went off. Thirty people had diarrhea, clogging up the embassy's six toilets. Three toilets are reserved for Zelaya, his wife and closest aides.”
Around the region this weekend:
· Frente Amplio candidate, Pepe Mujica won a plurality of votes in Uruguay’s presidential elections Sunday but did not secure the majority needed to win in the first round. As the WSJ reports, exit polls show Mujica took between 47% and 49% of the vote compared to 30% for his nearest rival, ex-president Luis Lacalle. The two will now face off in a second round on November 29. Perhaps Sunday’s biggest surprise, however, was the much stronger than expected showing of the young, right-wing candidate, Pedro Bordaberry, son of former Uruguayan dictator, Juan Maria Bordaberry. Bordaberry is said to have won nearly 18% of the vote, nearly doubling what pre-election polls showed him obtaining. While many of Bordaberry’s votes will go to Mr. Lacalle in the second round, Spain’s El País writes that there is little doubt that Mujica will be able to secure a victory in round two. The more interesting question is whether or not the Frente retains its parliamentary majorities. In other Uruguay election news, it also appears that a referendum to annul a controversial amnesty law failed Sunday.
· The Wall Street Journal reports this weekend on President Felipe Calderon’s attempt to remake the Mexican police. Under the direction of Genaro Garcia Luna, the WSJ writes, the Mexican government is trying to “persuade college-educated sons and daughters of the middle class to become part of a new, professional police corps.” Garcia Luna says he is modeling the new Mexican forces after the FBI and hopes to “gradually replace the army on the drug war's front lines with this two-and-a-half year-old force of around 40,000 cops.”
· In Rio de Janeiro, stricken by drug violence over the last week, the federal police decided to move two top drug lords from one Rio prison to a more secure location in a different part of the country. The BBC writes that “authorities…believe orders for attacks are coming from gang leaders who have already been jailed.”
· In Venezuela, 10 soccer players were killed along the Colombian border in what Venezuelan security forces say is the work of “warring factions” in Colombia. The murders led Venezuelan security officials to increase border security efforts. Venezuela has also deported to the U.S. a Colombian man linked to a pyramid scheme in that country. The Colombian faces money-laundering charges in the U.S.
· The Washington Post reports on marijuana eradication programs in both the U.S. and Mexico while an editorial on the paper’s opinion pages calls the new marijuana memo issued by the DOJ last week both “sensible and potentially problematic.”
· And finally, two opinions this weekend. The WSJ’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes on the economy and the new media law in Argentina. She argues that “as the antimarket economic model [of the Kirchner’s] hits the skids, the nation is turning against its architects and a free press will not remain silent. This is why the president forced a media law through the legislature two weeks ago, creating a new ‘audio-visual’ regulatory board controlled by the executive.” And in an LA Times editorial, the issue of “re-electionism” is taken up. First providing a recent history of “re-election” in the region, the paper writes the following: “…while we don't believe in one-size-fits-all democracy, we do believe in alternating governments. The longer a single party stays in power, the more likely it is to take control of the courts, electoral institutions and the national purse strings, making it harder for opposition parties to compete. This is why the move to lift term limits has been so emotional in the region, leading to everything from a fistfight among legislators in Argentina when Menem sought to change the law in 1993 to a civilian-military coup against Honduran President Manuel Zelaya over the issue in June.”
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