Manigat: "Nobody Trusts the CEP"

The frontrunner in what looks like an increasingly fraud-filled Haitian election and vote count, Mirlande Manigat, says the country’s current crisis is one based in a general lack of confidence in the country’s Provisional Electoral Council (CEP). Ms. Manigat, speaking to the Associated Press Monday:

“Nobody trusts the CEP. Nobody in Haiti. I cannot accept (the proposal) because there is no indication about the location, the rules, the membership, etc., etc."

The latter half of the statement was in reference to the CEP’s proposal that the three top-vote getters – Manigat, the government-backed Jude Celestin, and Michel “Sweet Mickey” Martelly – take part in an official recount. To that offer, Manigat reiterated she has no intention of participating. Moreover, the former first lady slammed the CEP for approaching her with the offer by way of a 5am email.

For its part, the CEP and a group of foreign ambassadors sought to delay renewed protests late Sunday by extending the timetable for candidates to file official appeals to last week’s preliminary vote tally. No candidate has yet shown much enthusiasm about that proposal, and Manigat says the country is now entering an area which “has no relation whatsoever either with the constitution or to the electoral law.” But the former first lady – no stranger to political bargaining in Haitian politics – did maintain she’d be open to some sort of power-sharing agreement with backers of either Mr. Martelly or Mr. Celestin, if it meant resolving the present impasse. As for her backtracking from an election day declaration of “massive fraud,” this interesting exchange, summarized by the AP:

“So why did she change her mind the next day and call for counting to continue? Her supporters saw she had a chance to win and demanded it, she said. Yes, the head of the U.N. peacekeeping mission called twice and met with her to encourage her to stay in. No, he did not influence her decision.”

On the issue of fraud, the Washington DC-based Haiti Democracy Project has some new, pretty damning evidence of what I think some would label “massive fraud.” The proof: photos of official returns for a deputy’s race from a polling place in the country’s Nord-Est department, laid next to the CEP’s results for those same returns, released last week. As the Haiti Democracy Project points it, it doesn’t take much effort to see how local officials added either 100 or 200 votes to the ruling-party candidate (INITE) totals on every ballot sheet. A mere 11 votes becomes 111. Eighteen becomes 118 and 19 is magically transformed into 219.

And finally, the BBC reports that US Sec. of State Hillary Clinton said she’s prepared to follow Sen. Patrick Leahy’s (D-VT) call for aid to be cut off to Haiti until a “fair” outcome (the BBC’s words) to the election can reached. (An editorial in the Miami Herald expresses similar frustration with Haiti’s absence of leadership). Meanwhile, Ms. Clinton’s husband, UN special envoy for Haiti and former US president, Bill Clinton, will be meeting in the Dominican Republic this week with Haiti’s PM and co-chair of the “Interim Haiti Recovery Commission,” AFP reports. The IHRC issued its first statement that I’ve seen about the present crisis, saying it was “now, more than ever, committed to the long-term reconstruction process, whoever gets elected president.” Good reading alongside that statement are reports from the LA Times Joe Mozingo on the externalities of good international community “intentions” (soaring home prices, political turmoil, and most likely the cholera epidemic) and another AP report which says, of the 1,583 US contracts already paid out to rebuild Haiti (and totaling $267 million), it’s US construction companies, rather than Haitians, who are getting rich. A quite startling statistic: “Out of every $100 of U.S. contracts now paid out to rebuild Haiti, Haitian firms have successfully won [just] $1.60.”

To other stories:

· Two significant demonstrations in Mexico to report on. First, in Ciudad Juarez, El Universal says medical workers went on strike Monday, in protest against on-going violence in the city. Kristin Bricker has an English translation of the report which notes that a variety of Catholic priests have also come out in support of the work stoppage/protest. The medical workers major demands, according to El Universal, are three: 1. That the murders of doctors Alfonso Rocha y Alberto Betancourt be resolved; 2. That police do their jobs with their faces uncovered and with their badges clearly visible; 3. that the state assign financial resources to the city in proportion to that which the city itself generates, and that it assign additional resources to reactivate the local economy.

· In Morelia, the state capital of Michoacan, a protest of a seemingly different nature. There, the AP reports that groups demonstrated for the third day in support of slain La Familia drug lord Nazario Moreno. Moreno was killed during two days of gunfights with federal police this weekend, but for some, he is remembered as an individual who “gave money and preached religion to the poor.” Signs carried by some of the protestors have encouraged the cartel to “go hard after the government” while leaving civilians be. Others have demanded the Federal Police leave the city. According to the AP, State Public Safety Secretary Manuel Ruiz has tried to downplay the protests, insisting the majority of citizens oppose the cartel and the marches. More from BBC Mundo which explores the under-examined but perhaps growing “social base” of many Mexican drug gangs.

· A somewhat alarming prospect from journalist Malcolm Bleith (author of The Last Narco) who after talking with various private security contractors suggests that “the future of Western private security companies” now operating in Iraq and Afghanistan may be Mexico.

· Reuters’ Frank Jack Daniel has a concise breakdown of exactly what the passage of an “enabling law” in Venezuela will allow President Hugo Chavez to do. Chavez suggested Monday he would “assume decree powers” for somewhere between 6 and 18 months in the wake of serious flooding in the country. [Or possibly 20 years, he added while laughing]. As Daniel writes, “Chavez is within his rights to request these powers, at least during the next three weeks, but he risks tarnishing his democratic credentials if he chooses to use them well into the next parliament.” As for what sort of legislation the president might fast track, Reuters says,

“It is not clear what laws Chavez will pass in the next few weeks, but an emergency housing law allowing the government to seize disused land in cities, new rules to regulate the Internet and a law that will take some profits from banks are among bills currently on the parliamentary agenda.”

· Phil Gunson for the Miami Herald says Urea, a nitrogen-rich fertilizer used in corn production, is circulating in a growing black market in Venezuela and being diverted to coca production. Because of this diversion, annual corn yields have fallen and triggered a growing dependence on food imports. It’s a bit of a long and tenuous chain but worth a read.

· And from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a new study on the media in Venezuela says privately-controlled, opposition-friendly television overwhelmingly dominates that controlled by the Venezuelan state. Using 2000-2010 data from AGB Panamericana de Venezuela Medición S.A., a local affiliate of Nielsen Media Research International, the report finds that “the state share of television audience is very small -- currently only 5.4 percent --while private, opposition-owned channels overwhelmingly dominate the television audience, with 61.4 percent watching privately owned TV channels, and 33.1 percent watching paid TV.”

· Time’s John Otis runs through Alvaro Uribe’s scandal-plagued legacy in Colombia. Colombia’s Ambassador to the US, Gabriel Silva, meanwhile, defends the Colombian government’s request that Uribe be granted diplomatic immunity in the US, saying the defense is based firmly in international law. Silva, as quoted by Colombia Reports: “I am not defending the former President Uribe who, incidentally, I would defend in any case.”

· Speaking at a forum on Honduras at the Wilson Center Monday, the AP reports that OAS Sec. General José Miguel Insulza says he continues to work for the reintegration of the Central American country to the pan-American body but will not force the process while 11 or 12 member states still oppose the move. A video or audio link of the full discussion to follow.

· Mercopress reports President Fernando Lugo and opposition leaders in the Paraguayan Congress appear to have worked out their old-fashioned horse-trading deal through which the opposition gets a variety of ambassadorial posts, supreme court positions, spots on the electoral court, and more in return for voting in favor of Venezuela’s incorporation to Mercosur.

· And today’s Wikileaks news. A first take from the Inter-Press Service on what the release of diplomatic cables means for Latin America. The conclusion: so far, the information is mostly just “annoying” to Latin American leaders and will not seriously alter the present state of US-Latin American relations. One area the report discusses very little, however, is Central America. There the releases have appeared slightly more intriguing or disruptive, depending on your perspective. Central American Politics has more on new El Salvador releases while the FMLN insisted earlier releases reporting tensions between the party and President Mauricio Funes have since passed.