Friday, December 17, 2010

Mercosur's Economics of Regional Integration

Mercosur leaders are in Foz de Igaucu, Brazil today where, according to outgoing Brazilian foreign minister Celso Amorim, member states have agreed to new set of trade agreements between the South American bloc and Australia, New Zealand, Syria, and the recently recognized Palestinian territories. Mercopress says Argentine foreign minister Hector Timerman has initiated talks with representatives from the United Arab Emirates about a similar deal between Mercosur and the Cooperation Council of the Gulf. AFP reports on the signing of a new preferential tariff deal with several developing nations, among them India. There have been discussions about creating a new “High Representative” post within the bloc. And, according to Bloomberg, there was also talk Thursday, initiated by Brazil and Argentina, about bolstering economic and political ties between Mercosur and Cuba, perhaps going so far as to bring the island into the regional trade bloc as an associate member.

Also of significance in Foz de Iguacu: agreement by permanent Mercosur members Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay to draft common investment guarantees, anti-trust laws, and a single policy on the automotive industry in addition to renewed pledges made last June to “streamline” Mercosur’s “common external tariff” so as to ensure the free circulation of goods between members by 2014. Mercopress, on the optimism about regional economic integration, at least in the Southern Cone, at the present moment:

“Mercosur this year regained some of its momentum and regional leaders again are speaking of creating something similar to the European Union in South America.”

Similar sentiments from the Inter-Press Service’s reporting on the summit:

For the first time in decades, there seems to be a reversal of roles [between the EU and South America]. The global crisis is posing serious challenges for the EU, while the South American bloc has recovered with a fiscal solidity and trade options that it did not possess when facing previous external shocks.”

This week’s meeting also comes amidst news that trade within the regional bloc, including with current associate member Venezuela, will hit an all-time high of over $40 billion in 2010. Responding to those numbers, Argentine Industries Minister, Debora Giorgi, called 2010 a “transcendental” year for the “consolidation” of the Market of the South. Interestingly, manufactured goods will make up 70% of that intra-Mercosur trade. Speaking with IPS, Luis Groppa, regional head of the Macroeconomic Monitoring Support Project, on what these changes are beginning to produce and what member states still desire:

“The development gap is narrowing, but what we seek is not only greater economic growth in quantitative terms, but growth with social inclusion in order to reduce inequality, which is the big challenge.”

Total exports from the bloc to the rest of the world are also estimated to rise to $230 billion this year, a 24% increase since 2009, and yet another sign of the region’s speedy economic recovery. Meanwhile, the bloc’s international reserves holdings currently stand at $200 billion dollars – equivalent to 13% of regional GDP. That, says IPS, represents “an unprecedented amount.”

In other issues related to the region’s rising international presence:

· News that right-leaning Chilean president, Sebastian Pinera is currently deliberating whether or not to follow Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil in recognizing an independent Palestine state within 1967 borders. U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs, William J. Burns recently criticized Argentina and Brazil’s recognition of Palestine, calling the move “premature.”

· EFE reports that Costa Rica and Nicaragua have accepted a regional mediation offer from Mexico and Guatemala aimed at resolving the on-going border dispute between the two countries. The new round of mediation was announced by Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom before the inauguration of the 36th Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Central American Integration System (SICA) taking place in Belize.

· Former Guatemalan interior minister, Carlos Vielmann, was rearrested in Spain on Thursday after turning himself into Spanish authorities. As CNN notes, Vielmann is wanted for his alleged role in series of extrajudicial killings at a Guatemalan prison in 2006. Those killings have become a target of the UN-backed anti-impunity commission in Guatemala, CICIG.

· BBC Mundo, which did a series on organized crime in Guatemala yesterday, does the same for El Salvador today. In a video report, BBC Mundo discusses the growing presence of Mexican cartels in the country while a written piece looks at evidence of collusion between local gangs like the Maras and transnational trafficking groups, like the Zetas. InSight, meanwhile, looks at how a controversial anti-gang law in El Salvador has gone unimplemented, three months after its passage. And the Economist on how, even amidst growing worries of citizen insecurity and economic problems, Mauricio Funes remains one of the region’s most popular leaders.

· InSight also directs attention to a new report from the Washington Office on Latin America and the Miguel Agustin Pro Juarez Human Rights Center (Center Prodh), on violence and rights abuses against mostly Central American migrants traveling through Mexico (“A Dangerous Journey Through Mexico”). Luis Arriaga, the Director of the Center Prodh:

“The failure to punish authorities and others involved in kidnappings and attacks against migrants has created a climate that perpetuates more abuses. The Mexican government's own reporting states that only two people have been sentenced for a crime against migrants in the past two years; this number pales in comparison to the magnitude of the abuses taking place.”

· Also on Mexico, the Washington Post says the country’s attorney general, Arturo Chavez Chavez, has requested Interpol’s assistance in tracking down and arresting lawmaker Julio Cesar Godoy, a federal deputy suspected of laundering money for La Familia. Godoy had his immunity revoked by the Mexican Congress in a 384 to 2 vote earlier this week. He has since split town.

· The Wall Street Journal looks at growing apprehension about Mexico and its drug violence on the part of major international companies.

· The Economist this week offers its thoughts on what some have called Mexico’s “Whack-a-Mole” strategy for going after top cartel kingpins. Like many others, it’s pessimistic:

A temporary increase in violence may be a price worth paying to dismantle powerful gangs. But Mexicans are tiring of the war. In October a plurality considered the campaign a ‘failure’ for the first time, according to Mitofsky, a polling firm. Leaked cables from the American embassy report that a senior Mexican official cautioned that the fight would be hard to continue unless results were seen within 18 months. That was 14 months ago.”

· The CS Monitor on the land reform in Bolivia, one of only two or three South American countries (the report says Brazil and Venezuela also continue land reform projects) who continue land redistribution programs. As the report indicates, the Morales government’s continuation of land reform is an attempt to carry out the mandate of agrarian reform begun in 1953.

· As Lula da Silva prepares to leave office with a “dizzying” approval rating of 87%, incoming Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has named current deputy foreign minister, Antonio Patriota as her new foreign minister, replacing Celso Amorim. Current defense minister Nelson Jobim, meanwhile, will stay on into the next administration.

· Finally, Cuba. In the Baltimore Sun, the New America Foundation’s Anya Landau French and Arturo Lopez-Levy on why Alan Gross is a victim of US policy to Cuba. In the Miami Herald, Marifeli Perez-Stable on Guillermo Farinas and what she sees as a lack of international solidarity with Cuba’s dissidents. And Wikileaks has released – and the Miami Herald reports on – new diplomatic cables that indicate Raul Castro sought to open up a back channel with the White House in late 2009. The Spanish, namely the country’s ambassador in Havana, Manuel Cacho and foreign minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos, were the alleged go-betweens. However, according to the documents, Sec. of State Hillary Clinton and the US’s top diplomat in Havana, Jonathan Farrar, both showed little interest in creating a new back-channel for direct negotiations.

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