Honduran Elections: Results, Turnout, Repression, and Recognition

This morning’s focus is yesterday’s vote in Honduras. Given the variety of reports on the matter, I’ll be breaking up today’s news by subject.

The Results

Conservative businessman Porfirio Lobo (National Party) has been declared the winner of Sunday’s disputed presidential election in Honduras. As the New York Times reports this morning, the Electoral Tribunal (TSE) said late Sunday that Mr. Lobo had secured approx. 52% of the national vote, some 16 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival, Elvin Santos (Liberal Party). In 2005, Mr. Lobo was defeated by Manuel Zelaya in his bid for the presidency.

The Washington Post calls the environment of Sunday’s vote “mostly peaceful,” and puts Mr. Lobo’s unofficial share of the vote at somewhere between 50 and 55%.

The Miami Herald also calls election day “largely peaceful” and highlights the fact that the apparent winner of Sunday’s election, Mr. Lobo, is a Univ. of Miami graduate (class of 1970). Further, Lobo tells the Herald, that: “We need dialogue that's broad, with all sectors represented. It's the only way. Staying in conflict doesn't help,'' adding such a discussion is “for Jan. 27 forward.”

In Bloomberg’s reporting, Heather Berkman, of the Eurasia Group in New York says, “There was no violence, the vote was peaceful, people weren’t intimidated and now Lobo can move ahead. Honduras is definitely getting toward the end of the crisis.” Kevin Casas-Zamora of the Brookings Institution adds: “the U.S. shift toward backing the election will create a ‘domino’ effect in the region, with other countries slowly accepting the ballot. ‘The key relationship that Honduras has to nurture and protect is with the U.S. As long as the U.S. is on board, they’re fine.’”

Voter Turnout / Abstention

The Washington Post reports that turnout was 47.6%, “several points less than in 2005.” In addition, the paper writes that initial figures show approx. 6% of ballots were intentionally nullified or cast blank. The Post also notes noticeable differences in turnout between traditionally middle class/wealthy neighborhoods vs. poor neighborhoods in and around Tegucigalpa.

RAJ at Honduras Coup 2009 reports that TSE officials said at 10pm last night that turnout was 48.6% which would lead to a projected total turnout of 2.3 million voters.

Other reports in the country, including from the Hagamos-NDI, agree, putting turnout at approx. 48%.

Bloomberg, also quoting a TSE official (at what time, we do not know), reports the turnout at 62%. But those in-country emphasize this is not in any way an official figure.

The Wall Street Journal’s turnout numbers are also just above 60% (61% they report). The paper the spins the numbers against Mr. Zelaya: “The turnout was a loss for Mr. Zelaya, who had urged supporters to boycott the election.”

Human Rights Violations

Both the Post and Times mention what appears to have been the most significant use of force against anti-coup groups Sunday in San Pedro Sula. As the Post writes: “human rights groups protested after police and military launched tear gas and water cannons at a peaceful pro-Zelaya demonstration of about 500 people in the northern city of San Pedro Sula.” The Herald adds that a reporter for Reuters was injured in the protests. And the WSJ highlights Tom Loudon of the Quixote Center, one of the 500 or so protestors dispersed by water cannons and tear gas. The Quixote Center has reports (here and here) on the San Pedro Sula march which was broken up:

“A peaceful march of over 500 people was just culminating at the Central Park of San Pedro Sula when a large armored tank with high pressure water cannons mounted on the top pulled up at the rear of the march - along with a large truck full of military troops. The 500 peaceful, unarmed protesters turned around to face the tank and troops - and in unison, they sat down in the middle of the street. The truck retreated 2 blocks. The soliders got off the truck , and began to put on gas masks. Everything went silent - and suddenly the crowd was attacked with water cannons and gas. People are fleeing. There are wounded and detained. The QC Delegation is fleeing the scene at this moment and will send reports.”

There were also reports that security forces raided the offices of COMAL (Alternative Community Marketing Network), a coalition of small-farming and women’s organizations (started by the American Friends Service Committee), based in Siguatepeque, Comayagua on Saturday. Laura Carlsen of CIP’s Americas Policy Program has a letter on the raid from COMAL here. And the Quixote Center writes the following:

“According to one of the 12 soldiers who was guarding the entrance to the nearby School for Solidarity Economy, a project of the Red Comal, there was in fact a warrant issued to search for and confiscate any firearms or articles which would threaten people. Apparently the protest banners, notes from workshops on the impacts of the coup on the communities with which the Red works, several hundred dollars, and laptop computers fall into one of those two categories, since these articles and more were confiscated by the 50 or so police and additional military and prosecutors who came to conduct the search and seizure.”

Amnesty International’s most recent release on human rights abuses around the vote Sunday says the organization is:

“Deeply worried about the safety of victims of and witnesses to a shooting at a military blockade that took place in Tegucigalpa last night. The organization called on the Human Rights Prosecutor to urgently investigate the incident. According to eye witnesses interviewed by Amnesty International, last night, four men were on their way back home when they saw a military blockade moved from its normal position, close to the Estado Mayor (military compound). They were not given any indication to stop or request to slow down so they drove past.”

The Herald also notes that COFADEH human rights activist Berta Oliva says the organization documented “some 20 or 30 detentions” across the country yesterday of anti-coup protestors.

Spain’s El País writes that pro-Zelaya Canal 36 had its transmission blocked all day yesterday. On the station, viewers could only read: “Interfieren señal de Canal 36 para evitar que informemos.”

And for more reports of incidents of repression, voter intimidation, etc. Voselsoberano.com has a full listing from around the country.

Who Recognized?

The U.S., Panama, and Costa Rica have all said they will recognize the vote. Peru and Colombia have hinted that they may as well. Costa Rica’s Oscar Arias did, however, later emphasize that constitutional disputes must still be addressed after the election.

Brazil, Guatemala, Argentina, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and El Salvador said before the vote they do not plan to recognize the elections. The OAS, UN and EU (via Spain) did not send observers. Others, including Canada and Mexico, have made ambiguous statements.

Brazil’s Lula, speaking Sunday, said: “Brazil will maintain its position because it's not possible to accept a coup.”

U.S. Statement

The United States State Dept. issued the following official statement late last night:

“We commend the Honduran people for peacefully exercising their democratic right to select their leaders in an electoral process that began over a year ago, well before the June 28 coup d'etat. Turnout appears to have exceeded that of the last presidential election. This shows that given the opportunity to express themselves, the Honduran people have viewed the election as an important part of the solution to the political crisis in their country.

We look forward to continuing to work with all Hondurans and encourage others in the Americas to follow the lead of the Honduran people in helping advance national reconciliation and the implementation of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord. Significant work remains to be done to restore democratic and constitutional order in Honduras, but today the Honduran people took a necessary and important step forward.”

Opinions

There’s one pro-vote, anti-Zelaya/anti-Chavez opinion this morning. In the WSJ, Mary O’Grady becomes an anti-colonialist and writes:

“Unless something monumental happens in the Western Hemisphere in the next 31 days, the big regional story for 2009 will be how tiny Honduras managed to beat back the colonial aspirations of its most powerful neighbors and preserve its constitution. Yesterday's elections for president and Congress, held as scheduled and without incident, were the crowning achievement of that struggle.”

Also, see a recent piece by Rodolfo Pastor, former Minister of Culture in Honduras, and now a visiting scholar at Harvard.

In other news this morning:

· There was also a less-watched vote in Uruguay where José “Pepe” Mujica of the left leaning Frente Amplio came out victorious. The New York Times reports on the victory of the 1960s guerilla fighter—held for over a decade in solitary detention during the Uruguayan dictatorship of the ‘70’s and ‘80’s. “The victory of Mr. Mujica, 74, solidified the control the Broad Front has assumed over Uruguayan politics since the current president, Tabaré Vázquez, was elected. Mr. Vázquez pursued a pragmatic path of reforms with socialist and market-friendly elements that lowered unemployment and poverty while generating confidence among investors.”

Honduras Elections Update

I’ve put together some excerpts and links from news reports and opinions that have been published over the last couple of days on tomorrow’s vote in Honduras. Feel free to post others as they come out.-jfs

NEWS REPORTING

“Upcoming Vote a Boon to De facto Rulers,” LA Times

Excerpts:

“The de facto rulers of Honduras will observe more than elections Sunday: They staged the first military-backed coup in Central America in 16 years -- and got away with it.

Months of international efforts failed to reinstate President Manuel Zelaya, ousted June 28 and deported to Costa Rica. Instead, the most powerful outside mediator, the United States, agreed to recognize the outcome of Sunday's vote for a new president. Several other countries will not, saying that a "free and fair" vote cannot be held under the watch of a de facto
government….”

“...Leo Valladares, a former human rights ombudsman and law professor who did not support the coup, said Friday that the election may be a "first step" out of the crisis. But he said the next president must confront the underlying troubles that have polarized Honduras, which is run by a small conservative elite….”

“…"The U.S. needed a way out," said Christopher Sabatini, senior policy director for the Americas Society think tank. "But what we've done is allow a coup to stand. And I fear this will erode regional consensus about the defense of democracy. . . . The U.S. has lost its moral authority to push back" on other issues in the region….”

“Region Finds US Lacking on Honduras,” New York Times

Excerpts:

“Latin American governments accused the administration of putting pragmatism over principle and of siding with Honduran military officers and business interests whose goal was to use the elections to legitimize the coup.

“President Obama’s credibility in the region has been seriously weakened,” said Kevin Casas-Zamora, a Latin America expert at the Brookings Institution and a former vice president of Costa Rica. “In a matter of five months, his administration’s position on the coup has gone from indignation to indifference to confusion to acquiescence.”

In interviews, senior administration officials rejected that view, saying that their strategy shifted as the crisis evolved, but that they never abandoned the region’s shared principles…”

“…“They really thought he was different,” said Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations, referring to Latin America’s view of Mr. Obama, adding, “But those hopes were dashed over the course of the summer.”

“Costa Rica Vows to Restore Ties with Honduras,” AP

Excerpt:

“Arias' decision to acknowledge the next administration is a new setback for Zelaya, who is urging the international community not to recognize the vote.

Arias, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, mediated unsuccessful negotiations to restore Zelaya to power. He now says the world should not punish Honduras' next government for the
coup.

``Why should we punish them with a second Hurricane Mitch by not recognizing the next government, isolating it, denying it cooperation?'' Arias said on CNN en Espanol.”

“Honduras Fearful Ahead of Disputed Poll,” AFP

Excerpt:

“Around 30,000 soldiers and police have been deployed nationwide to distribute electoral material and oversee the polls.

Amnesty International said Friday that security forces had stockpiled 10,000 tear gas cans and other crowd control equipment, and expressed fears that the de facto regime would use excessive force to clamp down on opposition to the polls.

Javier Zuniga, head of Amnesty's Honduras delegation, decried what he called "an environment of fear and intimidation."

Rights groups already expressed concern after several deaths and dozens of arrests in the aftermath of the coup.

They reported threats and intimidation of pro-Zelaya activists, while a subtler campaign of intimidation also appeared.

An ad in a newspaper sympathetic to the de facto regime warned voters this week that if they stayed away, their voting history could easily be traced on the Internet.”

“Obama Backing Honduras Election Crimps Latin Ties,” Bloomberg

“The clumsy handling of this issue when they had the backing of the entire hemisphere is simply an embarrassment,” said Robert White, a former U.S. ambassador to El Salvador under President Jimmy Carter who heads the Center for International Policy in Washington…”

“…“It makes it look like coups are a viable way out, and that is a terrible message for the region,” said Lisa Haugaard of the Latin America Working Group, a Washington-based human- rights advocacy coalition.

“Hondurans Hope Vote will End Standoff,” Wall Street Journal

Excerpt:

“For the provisional government, pinning all hopes for future legitimacy on Sunday's vote may prove risky should there be even the slightest turbulence -- missing ballots or violence, for example -- on Election Day. "The worst outcome would be a contested election with fraud charges on one or both sides," says Riordan Roett, a Latin America expert at Johns Hopkins University. " That would open a fracas."

OPINIONS

“Elections in Honduras Ought not be Blessed,” Sarah Stephens, Huffington Post

Excerpt:

“Thousands of individuals opposed to the coup have been subjected
to arbitrary arrest and many charged with political crimes such as "sedition." In Honduras, our delegation met numerous people who'd been beaten by police and the military, and one 13-year old boy who'd been shot in the stomach by security forces. A mother came to us in tears, wondering when her son would be able to return from exile after his role in the resistance had put him in danger and forced him to flee.

"Sham Elections in Honduras," George Vickers, Foreign Policy

Excerpt:

“Although coup leaders and others question Zelaya's method and motives, this crisis has revealed that many Hondurans still want a significant reform of their country's Constitution. It was the United States' own handpicked negotiator, Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, who called the Honduran Constitution "the worst in the world." With neither any clause for impeachment nor any recourse for amendment, Arias had the document dead to rights. And it is easy to imagine the events of June repeating themselves if serious debate over constitutional reform does not continue once the facade of democracy is restored. Indeed, it is just this sort of national conversation that the majority of Hondurans still seem to desire. Just one month ago, 54 percent of Honduran respondents told a U.S. polling firm that a constitutional assembly would now be the best way for resolving the current crisis.”

“Basic Conditions for Free and Fair Elections Do Not Exist,” LAWG/WOLA

Excerpt:

“In a context of current repression by the armed forces of public protests and a history of military dictatorship in the not-so-distant past, the visible, widely-reported presence of the armed forces, repeatedly announced by the government, introduces a visceral undercurrent of fear. By international standards, Honduras falls short of providing a safe climate for free or fair elections.”

“No Fair Election in Honduras Under Military Occupation,” Dana Frank, Huffington Post

Excerpt:

“President Obama should join the rest of the world and immediately declare the elections fraudulent and demand the immediate restoration of President Manuel Zelaya, the withdrawal of the Honduran military, and a delay of the election until three months after Zelaya has been full reinstated.”

“Sunday’s Elections Risky Option in Honduras,” Christopher Sabatini/Daniel Altschuler, Huffington Post

Excerpts:

“But perhaps the greatest loser will be the hemispheric consensus to defend liberal democracy. In the last three decades, from Haiti to Peru, the region has effectively pushed back on coups and democratic transgressions. Allowing the Honduran coup to stand has eroded this hard-won consensus…”

“…Fingers are crossed throughout the Americas for a speedy conclusion to the Honduran crisis. But Sunday's elections may not present the exit we all hope for. Instead, no matter how transparent they may be, Sunday's elections may mark a defeat for the hemisphere's ability to stand firm against coups, rein in overzealous presidents, and hold fast to a conception of liberal democracy on which we should all be able to agree.”

“The People of Honduras have been Betrayed,” James Burgess, New Statesman

Excerpt:

“The events unfolding in Honduras set a dangerous precedent in Latin America, and threaten the hard-won democratic progress made across the continent in recent years. Whilst Obama's hands are tied by domestic affairs and conflict elsewhere, the spectre of US support for right-wing Latin American military coups is making its ominous reappearance.”

“Honduras’s Democratic Solution,” Editorial, Washington Post

Excerpt:

“The lesson of the Honduran crisis is that the United States cannot always pursue such multilateralism and also support democracy. Too many Latin American governmentsare more interested in backing leaders who share their political inclinations than in upholding the rule of law. While loudly denouncing the "coup" against Mr. Zelaya, they have ignored the rigging of elections and the violent suppression of opposition by fellow leftists. In rejecting their attempt to nullify Honduras's democratic vote this Sunday, the Obama administration has taken a relatively isolated stance -- and a correct one.”

Supreme Court Rules Against Zelaya Reinstatement

The Honduran Supreme Court offered its opinion on Thursday on the restitution of the deposed Mel Zelaya, the AP reports this morning. Their decision: Zelaya should not be restored to the presidency because of “criminal charges pending against him.” “While he faces judicial charges, he cannot return to power," SCJ spokesman Danilo Izaguirre said. Spain’s El Pais adds to the reporting writing that 14 of the 15 SCJ justices voted against the restitution of Mr. Zelaya. The ruling follows an August 21 decision by the Court which offered essentially the same position against reinstatement. Further, the non-binding resolution precedes a vote by the Honduran Congress on the matter, scheduled for Dec. 2—two days after Hondurans vote in national elections. For his part, Mr. Zelaya, still a resident of the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa, reiterated his position, saying he has no plans of accepting the Honduran Congress vote on Tuesday given its “unilateral” nature.

All of this comes as the de facto regime continues to prepare for Sunday elections and the opposition continues to call for a national boycott. EFE reports that the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute have sent their election observers to Honduras for the Sunday vote, joining some 300 other international observers. The UN, OAS, and the internationally respected Carter Center have all said in recent days that they still will not send formal election observers to the country. For its part, the US embassy in Tegucigalpa has said that it, however, does plan to send representatives into the country to monitor election developments on Sunday. According to the Inter-American Dialogue’s Peter Hakim, the US will be walking a tightrope. “[Ass’t. Sec. of State] Valenzuela’s challenge is to find a formula that allows him to take advantage of the elections as a way to resolve the crisis without further polarizing inter-American relations.” Already this week there have been multiple reports about Brazil’s frustration with the US over the Honduran crisis. After President Lula da Silva reiterated his country’s decision not to recognize Sunday’s poll, his Foreign Minister Celso Amorim did attempt to patch up hard feelings, speaking with Hillary Clinton by phone for over an hour. After the conversation, Amorim insisted US-Brazil relations remained strong, despite “a little disappointment.”

On the ground in Honduras, the AP reports that 2 bombs were detonated as pro-Micheletti activists began a march in Tegucigalpa. Nobody was killed but a few injuries were reported. Members of the anti-Micheletti Resistance have said they are planning a mass protest march to take place on the day of elections. This according to Tiempo. At “Honduras Coup 2009” there is news that the Millennium Challenge Corporation has told the Central American Development Bank it must restart loans to Honduras, totaling $130 million, by February if it hopes to retain MCC funding. And with an opinion on Honduras this morning, Edward Schumacher-Matos writes in the Washington Post that the U.S. should hold firm to its recent decision to recognize Sunday’s vote. He writes: “There is good reason to believe that the election will come off favorably enough for Honduras to be accepted again. We will see on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Obama administration, despite being alone, is right not to panic.”

In other news around the region:

· In Uruguay, voters will also be heading back to the polls Sunday for round 2. According to Reuters, former guerrilla fighter Pepe Mujica is expected to win, giving the left leaning Frente Amplio another 5 years in office. Mujica currently leads the conservative National Party candidate, ex President Luis Lacalle, by about 8 percentage points.

· The Miami Herald reports on U.S. efforts to deliver food to Guatemala, in the midst of a “state of calamity” brought on by drought and rising food prices. U.S. food is being distributed primarily through four international organizations: Mercy Corps, Catholic Relief Services, Save the Children, and Share.

· The AP reports on Lula’s Thursday call to the West in which he said rich nations should be willing to pay Amazonian countries to not deforest the Amazon. The idea is similar to Ecuadorean demands that developed countries pay oil rich developing countries to keep their oil in the ground.

· And finally, in a WP editorial, the paper is very critical of Lula for accepting Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to town earlier in the week. “When even Russia is publicly discussing new sanctions against Tehran, the Brazilian government signed 13 cooperation agreements with the regime, prompting Mr. Ahmadinejad to predict that bilateral trade would grow fifteenfold,” writes the Post. “Brazil may yet become a regional power; Mr. Lula's mostly sensible domestic policies have made it stronger. But if it is to acquire global influence, Brazil will have to reform the anachronistic Third Worldism that informs its foreign policy.”

The Case Against Recognizing "Sham" Elections in Honduras

“Barack Obama's administration may be tempted to congratulate the winner, gradually resume normal diplomatic and economic relations with the successor government to the deposed president, Manuel Zelaya, and thus enable the de facto government that drove him from office to erase the remaining stains of its coup d'état,” argues George Vickers in Foreign Policy this morning. “Yield not unto temptation.” “In a political environment contaminated by repression, violence, and fear,” Vickers writes, recognizing Sunday’s vote will only lengthen the Honduran crisis and hurt the country’s “prospects for real democracy.” Rather, says OSI’s director of international operations, the U.S. should publicly support a national dialogue in Honduras around shortcomings in the Honduran constitution, recently called the “worst in the world” by the United States’ own handpicked negotiator, Oscar Arias. This may be only way for the U.S. to retain “a trace of goodwill” among many frustrated Hondurans and Latin America more generally, writes Vickers.

This opinion is echoed once again this morning by Reuters who adds to yesterday’s news that the Honduran crisis has driven a wedge between the U.S. and rising regional power, Brazil. It was Brazilian foreign policy adviser, Marco Aurelio Garcia again, who repeated the Brazilian position while speaking with US National Security Adviser, James Jones. “The United States will become isolated — that is very bad for the United States and its relationship with Latin America,” Aurelio Garcia told Jones this week. As Spain’s El Pais puts it today, the difference of opinion between the U.S. and Brazil over Honduras (as well as Iran) has led the two countries to “collide.”

For more on the case against recognizing Sunday’s elections, the Washington D.C.-based Latin America Working Group and Washington Office on Latin America have released a joint statement, saying “basic conditions for a free and fair election do not exist” in Honduras. Analysts from both organizations recently returned back from Honduras and report that restrictions on freedom of assembly continue, as do restrictions on the media. They also point out the direct and visible involvement of the military in the election process. Quoting Honduras’s Tiempo, the LAWG and WOLA write: “the high level of military involvement in the electoral process is ‘an extraordinary, bizarre development,’ as in recent years ‘the military invariably played a limited, imperceptible, and detached role in safeguarding polling places.’” Also, in the Guardian, Calvin Tucker argues against recognizing Sunday’s elections and adds to the list of “irregular” pre-election activity. “‘Cash discounts’ will be offered to anyone who can prove they voted, courtesy of the country's coup-supporting big business federation.”

Meanwhile, with the latest reporting on the ground in Honduras, COFADEH says the de facto regime of Roberto Micheletti has acquired new equipment—including water cannons and security cameras—which are being used to intimidate anti-coup activists who are supporting a Sunday boycott. In country reporting says de facto foreign minister, Carlos Lopez Contreras, publicly admitted that the coup regime has been blocking transmission of pro-Zelaya Canal 36. El Heraldo has news about the Attorney General’s office turning in its report to the Congress on whether or not to restore the ousted Mel Zelaya to power. However, the details of the report have not been revealed. New reports indicate that over 100 candidates for public office have now pulled their name from Sunday’s ballot after some 55 members of Zelaya’s Liberal Party joined over 50 PINU candidates in protest this week. And AFP reports that around 15 U.S. analysts and ex-government officials will be in Tegucigalpa as guests of the Election Tribunal Sunday. The TSE has also set up a website where those not in country can apparently watch electoral proceedings from afar. Check out Hondurasvota2009.com for more.

Around the region on this Thanksgiving morning:

· The New York Times reports on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela Wednesday. In the Iranian leader’s fourth visit to Caracas, Chavez called him a “gladiator of anti-imperialist struggles.” The Times Simon Romero writes of material cooperation between Venezuela and Iran as well: “Studies here of Venezuela’s economic ventures with Iran, which began in 2004, reveal more than 300 cooperation agreements, but few projects of any substance. A planned oil refinery and plans to build factories to produce cement and munitions have not materialized. Plants that produce cars and bicycles are running well below capacity.”

· From Haiti, Reuters writes that the Lavalas Family Party, the political party of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, will be banned from participating in Feb. 28 legislative elections. “The Lavalas Family party will not be allowed to participate in the next election, because the electoral council’s legal counsel said the party did not meet all legal requirements,” Gaillot Dorsinvil, head of the Haitian electoral council told local radio stations Wednesday. He did not comment further on what those legal requirements were but there is speculation that some of the party’s registration papers may have been falsified. Banned from prior elections as well, Mr. Aristide’s allies have accused election officials of dismissing their party to aid a new coalition close to President René Préval.

· The AP reports that Mexican president Felipe Calderon is trying to refocus energies away from his controversial war on drugs and toward an anti-poverty agenda. “This is our conviction, which has led us to make a significant reduction in poverty the first priority for my administration in the three remaining years ... and particularly extreme poverty,” Calderon told an anti-poverty conference in Mexico City. In a taped interview that aired Wednesday Calderon elaborated further. “My objective from here on is to greatly reduce poverty, by taking the Opportunities program to places it doesn't exist,'' referring to a program that gives cash grants to families for keeping children in school and giving them medical care.

· In Colombia, the AP writes that ex-Gen. Jaime Humberto Uscategui has been convicted of murder by a Colombian court and sentenced to 40 years in prison for his role in a notorious 1997 massacre by far-right militias in the village of Mapiripan. The sentence was the most severe to date against a high ranking Colombian military official, says the AP. The wire service goes on: “The killings - bodies were hacked up and many were thrown in a river - marked the bloody arrival of right-wing death squads in Colombia's eastern plains, where they would go on to kill hundreds of suspected leftist rebel sympathizers. Human rights groups have long accused Colombia's military of aiding and abetting right-wing death squads, citing the Mapiripan massacre as a clear case of close cooperation between the army and landowner-backed militias operating outside the law.”

· Finally, an opinion today on Brazil from commentator, Alvaro Vargas Llosa. He writes critically of Brazil’s rise to the world stage: “First, while Brazil's economy is becoming first class, its politics is still Third World. Second, the leaders are impatient to make their country a global power before their citizens become truly prosperous.”

Brazil Becoming Increasingly Frustrated with US on Honduras

Brazil is increasingly “frustrated and disappointed” with the United States, Lula’s foreign policy adviser, Marco Aurelio Garcia, tells Bloomberg News. Among its biggest gripes, the decision of the United States to recognize Sunday’s elections in Honduras. “All that positive feeling created after Obama’s election, and which strengthened at the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago, is starting to disintegrate a bit, because the U.S. is condoning a coup d’etat, recognizing a government that has used extremely illegal and violent tools,” Garcia told reporters in Brasilia this week. The Brazilian went on to call the U.S. decision an attempt to “clean up a coup” in a country that has lived under a state of siege for months. The words of Mr. Garcia come as the U.S. rejected a plea from Brazil to support a delay of Sunday’s elections. In a letter dated Nov. 17, the Brazilian foreign ministry sent William Burns, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, a message asking that the U.S. rethink its position about the Honduran vote. But the U.S. has said it has no plans of going back on its change. Meanwhile, Obama’s frequent Senate ally, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Richard Lugar (R-IN), also asked last week that the Brazilians themselves recognize Sunday’s poll.

On Tuesday, numerous regional leaders expressed their opinions on the Honduran election. El Salvador’s, Mauricio Funes, said it would be “difficult” for the international community to recognize Sunday elections without Mel Zelaya restored to power, but added he was still watching how things develop ahead of Sunday voting and thus was not yet ready to give his country’s position on whether or not results would be recognized. Mexico also said it would not yet decide whether or not to recognize, saying it believes there is still time for the implementation of the San José Accord. Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo, meanwhile, said his country would not recognize results. And Peru’s Alan Garcia broke with other regional leaders saying his country plans to recognize Sunday’s vote. He joins the U.S. and Panama as the only countries in the hemisphere to explicitly support this weekend’s electoral process. Amongst human rights groups working in Honduras, CEJIL called the current climate in Honduras one of “intimidation” that “impedes the free expression of the citizenry.” CEJIL goes on: “November 29 will not strengthen Honduran democracy. To the contrary, it will weaken it because it will consolidate a new version of coup d’etats.”

On the ground in Honduras, the AP writes that Honduran police detained two Nicaraguans and two Hondurans possessing “several rifles” as disarmament of registered gun owners continued around the country. Roberto Micheletti (who apparently could not handle a week of solitary “reflection”) commented on the arrests, saying the men had plans to assassinate him as he went to vote on election day. Additionally, La Tribuna reports the arrival of some 350 international election observers. The Honduran TSE says they also believe as many as 6000 Hondurans will participate in monitoring Sunday’s vote but some officials did note that certain more, well-known international observing missions have not/will not participate in election monitoring. Regarding turnout, there are various numbers being thrown around by the TSE, most ranging from 50 to 60% of eligible voters showing up Sunday. One source in Honduras reports that some TSE officials expect abstention to be just above 50%. In 2005, the abstention rate was 46%. And finally, on the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord, El Heraldo reports that amidst election hoopla, the Supreme Court has decided to finally come together today to offer its non-binding opinion on the restitution of Mel Zelaya. The court has time and again been a bastion anti-Zelaya opinion so it seems somewhat unlikely anything new will come out of today’s meeting.

Around the region this morning:

· The New York Times reports that President Obama wrote to Brazil’s Lula da Silva on Sunday, one day before the arrival of Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The U.S. President reiterated the his position on Iran’s nuclear program, although he stopped short of explicitly criticizing the Brazilian leader for receiving the Iranian president. The letter, 3 pages total, also discussed Honduras, says the Times. On the crisis there, Obama “justified American support for a presidential election” and said “the situation would ‘start from zero’ after the election.” Lula said he may respond to the President via telephone.

· Following the polemical Iranian president beyond Brazil, the AP writes this morning that Ahmadinejad’s three-country “goodwill tour” in Latin America has expanded Iran’s reach in the region. In Bolivia on Tuesday, Ahmadinejad signed an agreement with President Evo Morales committing Iran to help his country do research on exploiting lithium. In Venezuela, where the Iranian leader arrived last night, Iran has “already helped set up factories that assemble cars, tractors and bicycles, and Iranian businesses have sent crews to build public housing under contracts with Hugo Chavez's government.” Spain’s El País has more on the Venezuela leg of Ahmadinejad’s tour, reporting that the visit seeks to strengthen their joint vision of a multipolar world that both country’s have.

· The LA Times reports on new efforts on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border to tighten security. The paper writes: “The Mexican government is modernizing its ports of entry along the border, including its biggest crossing in Tijuana. The new infrastructure -- which includes gates, cameras and vehicle scales -- is meant to help curtail the flow of drug money and weapons to Mexican organized crime groups.” However, some worry that higher security will mean much longer waits for U.S. entry and thus a decline in U.S. tourism revenue in an already struggling economy.

· Finally, in two other stories/opinions this morning, Germany’s Der Spiegel and the Financial Times have two pieces on the rise of Brazil and the fall of Mexico on the world economic stage. The Der Spiegel piece focuses on Lula himself, leading: “Brazil is seen as an economic success story and its people revere President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva like a star. He is on a mission to turn the country into one of the world's five biggest economies through reforms, giant infrastructure projects and by tapping vast oil reserves. But he faces hurdles.” In the FT, Moises Naím leads: “Not long ago Mexico was the superstar among emerging markets, while Brazil remained the butt of jokes dating back the best part of a century. ‘Brazil is the country of the future and always will be’ became a cliché. No longer.” And in the LAT, Marjorie Miller praises Mauricio Funes’s recent decision to honor 6 Jesuit priests, killed 20 years ago. “This, like the democratic election of Funes, was an example that peaceful change is possible, if slow to come,” she writes.

Note: I’ll be traveling a bit over the Thanksgiving weekend but still plan to get out a daily news brief on both Thursday and Friday. The release time, however, may be later than usual. -jfs

After "Bear Hug," Lula and Ahmadinejad Talk Trade, Nuclear Power, and International Diplomacy in Brazil

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad began his South American tour in Brazil yesterday meeting with President Lula da Silva. The Wall Street Journal reports that just hours before the two talked, Lula went on his weekly radio program to say Iran should not be isolated from the international community. “It's important that someone sits down with Iran, talks with Iran and tries to establish some balance so that the Middle East can return to a certain sense of normalcy.” After embracing in what the AP describes as a “bear hug,” the two mostly talked business, laying out new agreements for trade, agricultural, and scientific ventures while also agreeing to expedite the granting of diplomatic visas between their two countries over the next three years. Additionally, Lula also called for new international diplomacy aimed at peace in the Middle East, defended Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy, and both called for a reform of the UN which would give Brazil a permanent seat on the Security Council. But according to Harvard Brazilian expert, Kenneth Maxwell, the reality that Brazil can broker any sort of peace deal that involves Iran remains unlikely. “Ahmadinejad is not just any other world leader. Iran is currently in the middle of a major dispute with the U.S. and its allies. Ahmadinejad vociferously denies the Holocaust and calls publicly for the destruction of Israel,” Maxwell tells the LA Times. Eric Farnsworth adds critical words as well: “[The visit] should also give pause to those who recommend that the U.S. and Brazil attempt to manage the hemisphere together. Simply put, our views of the world are different and it's not at all clear that strategic partnership is the endgame.”

For his part, the AP also notes that the Iranian president never uttered the word “Israel” during his talks with Lula—a somewhat notable fact. Critics in Brazil, however, protested on the streets and maintained that Lula was squandering the country’s international clout by hosting the controversial Iranian leader. In an editorial Monday, José Serra, governor of Sao Paulo and likely the most high profile challenger to the PT in next year’s presidential elections, said the visit stood counter to “everything Brazil stands for.” Mr. Ahmaninejad will next visit Bolivia where he will celebrate the opening of a new hospital, as well as two Iranian-funded milk processing plants. He will then be off to Venezuela and West Africa. Lula added that he plans to visit the Middle East next year with a visit to Iran amongst his stopovers.

Around the region this morning:

· Beginning with the latest from Honduras, ousted President Manuel Zelaya spoke on Radio Globo Monday, calling Nov. 29 elections an attempt to “legitimize” his ouster. He also penned a letter to the international community, calling on leaders “not to adopt ambiguous or imprecise positions like the one shown now by the United States, whose final position has weakened the effort to reverse the coup, illustrating the division in the international community.” The words came as new U.S. Ass’t. Sec. of State Arturo Valenzuela spoke at the Permanent Council of the OAS in Washington Monday. He said de facto President Roberto Micheletti’s decision to step aside for a week of “reflection” (beginning yesterday) has opened “a space for compromise.” Mr. Valenzuela went on to call Sunday’s elections a “necessary” but not “sufficient” means of ending the Honduran conflict, offering a trace of hope that the U.S. will not close the door on the crisis all-together after this weekend’s poll. However, as the AFP adds, the OAS meeting at which Valenzuela spoke ended without achieving a common position on the elections among inter-American member states. With the exception of the U.S. and Panama (and potentially Peru and Colombia who remain undecided), all other countries in the Americas have said they will not recognize Sunday’s results.

· Meanwhile, with news on the ground in Honduras, the Miami Herald writes that the latest CID Gallup poll shows National Party candidate Pepe Lobo up 15 points on his nearest rival, construction company executive, Elvin Santos of the Liberal Party. On Saturday, the paper goes on to report, new decrees were issued by the executive branch (presumably Mr. Micheletti) declaring a national state of emergency for the elections and calling up 5,000 military reservists. The decree has been published in La Gaceta the official state record, according to other reports, and so it seems Sunday’s vote will occur under a state of siege. The National Police and Armed Forces also began disarming registered gun owners across the country yesterday, in compliance with last weekend’s executive order. Security Secretary Jorge Rodas Gamero justified the state’s actions with the usual rhetoric about international subversion. “We have information that groups supported and advised by international delinquents are trying to plant panic in the Honduran people.”

· Many of those opposed to the coup regime have stepped up a campaign to boycott Sunday’s vote. The Frente de Resistencia says it has organized boycott groups in 298 municipalities around the country, covering 18 departments. This according to AFP. Other reports indicate peaceful resistance will be the most active in the countryside. On Saturday, the UD’s candidate, Cesar Ham, broke with boycott calls, saying he would continue with his name on Sunday’s presidential ballot. But today, reports La Tribuna, it is expected that some 57 candidates running for public office with the social democratic PINU will pull their names off ballots around the country in protest. And one UD candidate for mayor in San Pedro de Sula, Samuel Madrid, has also announced he too is no longer in the running, arguing it is neither “prudent nor ethical” to participate in Sunday’s vote given current conditions.

· Also this morning, the Washington Post reprints an earlier story about Voice of America’s recent announcement that it will be increasing its media presence in Latin America. The paper confirms that Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua are the countries to be targeted by the U.S. government-run station.

· In the Atlantic Monthly this month there is an in-depth feature piece on the drug war in Mexico by Philip Caputo, most recently the author of Crossers, a novel about life on the Mexican border.

· And finally, in an opinion, Carlos Montaner writes of Honduras in the Miami Herald. He provides five reasons why he believes the U.S. changed its position on Nov. 29 elections in Honduras and its earlier calls for the restitution of the ousted Mel Zelaya.

To Recognize or Not to Recognize: Debating the Honduran Elections

Scheduled elections in Honduras are now just 6 days away. And so I begin this morning with an excellent, albeit pessimistic, piece by Time’s Tim Padgett who writes: “It would be great if a presidential election could magically transport the small, impoverished Central American nation beyond the political crisis that has gripped it since the June 28 coup. But unless Zelaya is restored to office before next week's balloting, which looks extremely unlikely, the international community is poised to brand the vote illegitimate.” Padgett goes on: “Instead, the election will confirm that Honduras has slipped back into the political chicanery and military meddling that typified the 1970s and '80s. According to the Council of the Americas’ Christopher Sabatini, using an election as a means of “cleaning the slate after a coup” could threaten democratic norms across the region for decades. The piece argues, in fact, that Honduras has quickly shown just how little progress has been made in the region since the dirty civil wars of the Cold War era. Central America has seen 79,000 murders in the past six years, more than the 75,000 people killed in El Salvador's 1980-1992 civil war or the 50,000 killed in Nicaragua's 1980-1990 contra war, writes Time. And while some recent events—particularly the election of the FMLN’s Mauricio Funes in El Salvador—hinted at progress, Padgett argues that “One of the main reasons bad old habits have lingered is that despite the gains of the past decade or so, the same few families and business groups continue to control the region's economy.”

With the latest on Honduras specifically, ousted President Mel Zelaya marked 2 months in the Brazilian embassy this weekend by emitting a new communiqué in which he says Sunday’s elections must be postponed. “In the current moment in Honduras, we have a de facto state, there is no constitution nor proper state powers, which were destroyed by force,” Zelaya writes. Guatemala became the latest country to announce that it would not recognize the results of the Sunday vote, even while an AP report this morning argues that many in the “deeply conservative society” of Honduras continue to support a elections as a means of “fixing the situation” and ending the nightmare of the last 5 months. Even the left-leaning, Unificación Democrática decided this weekend that they would participate in Sunday’s election, despite calls for a boycott by anti-coup forces. For more on the elections—and specifically this issue of supporting or rejecting their results—I recommend two sets of point-counterpoint arguments. At Gazettextra.com, CEPR’s Mark Weisbrot argues that if the U.S. recognizes the election, it would be a strong statement that “human rights and democracy in this hemisphere count for zero in the political calculations [of the U.S.].” While the Heritage Foundation’s Ray Walser argues that the Tom Shannon-brokered deal signed two weeks ago requires the U.S. to “support fully” the Nov. 29 vote. And in the blogosphere, RAJ at “Honduras Coup 2009” and Boz at “Bloggings by Boz” lay out their cases for rejecting and accepting the elections, respectively. RAJ also begins thinking about how elections might not be recognized while still holding out the possibility of recognizing the elected government which comes out of the vote, before that government is installed in January.

Finally, there is also news that pro-Zelaya Channel 36 was again taken off the air this weekend by the government. And after saying they weren’t aware of human rights abuses early last week, the DOS, through its spokesman Ian Kelly, found itself backtracking Friday, writes the AP. Kelly cited censuring of media outlets as particularly worrying.

Around the region this weekend:

· The New York Times writes that “Brazil’s ambitions to be a more important player on the global diplomatic stage are crashing headlong into the efforts of the United States and other Western powers to rein in Iran’s nuclear arms program.” Lula da Silva is set to host Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today in the Iranian leader’s first state visit to Brazil and many U.S. lawmakers are anything but happy. “This is part of Brazil projecting its role and strength as a global player,” says Michael Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue. “And part of this has to do with Brazil sending a message to Washington that it will deal whomever it wants to deal with.” According to Congressman Eliot Engel (D-NY), “[Ahmadinejad] is illegitimate with his own people, and Brazil is now going to give him the air of legitimacy at a time when the world is trying to figure out how to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. It makes no sense to me, and it tarnishes the image of Brazil, quite frankly.” The relationship between the two countries appears to be primarily economic. Brazilian national oil company, Petrobras, has helped Iran develop its oil fields and the two countries did about $2 billion in trade in 2007, mostly in food, says Brazilian foreign minister, Celso Amorim. According to the LA Times, the two countries plan to sign new deals today on biotechnology, energy and agriculture.

· The Washington Post reports that Mexican Interior Minister data shows just one soldier has been convicted for human rights violations during Mexico’s bloody, three-year campaign against drug traffickers. Human rights groups in Mexico and the United States describe the lack of convictions as a sign that Mexico's military is incapable of prosecuting abuses among its officers and troops. “The bottom line is that the Mexican military is not producing credible results, and you cannot do business with a military that refuses to be accountable,” says Jose Miguel Vivanco, director of the Americas program for Human Rights Watch. Mexico’s National Human Rights Commission has received well over 2000 complaints about rights abuses. The State Dept. said in August that 12 Mexican soldiers had been convicted for human rights abuses since 2006—a number contradicted by Interior Ministry figures.

· The Post also has a piece on increased military and intelligence cooperation between Mexico and the U.S., going “well beyond” the $1.4 billion Merida Initiative. “The two countries are sharing sensitive intelligence and computer technology, military hardware and, perhaps most importantly, U.S. know-how to train and vet Mexican agents,” says the paper. And there is also news this weekend that 15 La Familia associates were indicted in a Chicago for running a cocaine distribution ring for the Mexican cartel. The LA Times, meanwhile, writes of Richard Padilla Cramer, the former U.S. attaché for ICE in Mexico City, accused of working with Mexican drug gangs. Cramer’s trial begins in Miami this week. And in the Dallas Morning News, Alfredo Corchado writes that “U.S. assistance to help Mexico fight drug traffickers will probably continue beyond the allotted three years of the Mérida Initiative, with expanding cooperation but not joint law enforcement or military operations ‘on Mexican soil any time soon.’” The Merida Initiative is set to expire next year and U.S. and Mexican officials are now exploring ways to refocus their efforts “from dismantling and disrupting cartels to strengthening Mexico's weak democratic institutions and weeding out corruption.” “Citizen security” and “safety” will soon become the priorities of the Mexico-U.S. relation, one official tells the DMN.

· Late last week, Venezuela blew up two pedestrian bridges that connected its territory to Colombia—the latest in the deterioration of relations between the two countries. Colombia denounced the action as a violation of international law, saying it will petition the UN and OAS to intervene. For its part, Venezuela said the bridges provided easy access for paramilitaries and smugglers. For more, I recommend Boz’s Venezuela-Colombia round-up, which includes news that Venezuela also announced the arrival of 300 new Russian tanks this weekend. And the LA Times’ Chris Kraul adds to a number of stories about power outages and public service failures in Venezuela with his reporting over the weekend. He writes: “the government's failure to pay its employees -- be they healthcare workers in San Cristobal in the west or professors in Caracas – has [also] become another rallying point for unrest, with numerous groups taking their complaints to the streets this week.”

· In Cuba, the AP writes that pro-Castro groups attacked the husband of Yoani Sanchez over the weekend, punching and shouting down the partner of the anti-Castro blogger after he challenged state security agents who he says beat up his wife two weeks ago.

· In Nicaragua, the Miami Herald has a report on the return of the Contras, under the banner of the Nicaraguan Democratic Force (FDN), to oppose the government of Daniel Ortega and the Sandinistas.

· And finally four opinions. Jorge Castaneda writes in the WSJ that Cuba should release political prisoners in exchange for normalized relations with the U.S., citing the pathway to normalization laid out in the recent HRW report. Andres Oppenheimer writes on Transparency International’s new corruption rankings and argues the data confirms that “fiery populist leaders who rise to power vowing to eradicate corruption often end up leading sleazier governments than their predecessors.” An editorial in the Miami Herald calls on Sen. George LeMieux to end his hold of Brazilian ambassadorial nominee, Tom Shannon. And Mary Anastasia O’Grady in the WSJ calls Evo Morales the head of a Bolivian “narco-dictatorship.” She writes “Mr. Morales is South America's latest dictator, but he is not the ideological communist that many fear. He's more akin to a mob boss, having risen to power by promising to protect the coca business. Now he has the capacity to do it.”