Honduran Congress Will Not Vote on Zelaya's Restitution Until After Elections

Deputy Assistant Sec. of State, Craig Kelly, returned to Tegucigalpa Tuesday in what ousted Honduran President Mel Zelaya interpreted as a reply to his Saturday letter of concern sent to U.S. President Barack Obama. The visit is Kelly’s third in three weeks and it appears he has taken over the Honduras portfolio from recently departed Ass’t. Sec. of State Tom Shannon who still awaits confirmation as U.S. Ambassador to Brazil. While the State Dept. initially said they were unsure of Mr. Kelly’s schedule while in Tegucigalpa, it seems he has already met with both Mr. Zelaya and Micheletti once again. La Tribuna reports that, speaking with Zelaya, Kelly advocated that the ousted leader form part of a “transitional cabinet” in exchange for Micheletti’s resignation as President “on Friday in the Congress.” But Zelaya seemed far from willing to accept such a proposal. “If I agree to form part of that transitional cabinet, he resigns, and I’d legitimate the coup d’etat,” Zelaya remarked Tuesday. “It’s a maneuver that I will not fall for.” Zelaya added that “the restoration of the rule of law is the only way there will be recognition of the electoral process.”

Kelly’s return to Honduras came as the President of the Honduran Congress, José Alfredo Saavedra, announced that the country’s legislature had no plans to debate and vote on Zelaya’s restitution until Dec. 2—three days after scheduled presidential elections. The reason for the delay, according to Mr. Saavedra: the Ministerio Público and the Corte Suprema de Justicia have not yet got around to drafting their (non-binding) opinion on the events of June 28 [the National Human Rights Commission and Procuraduría turned in their reports last week and yesterday, respectively]. As the AP writes, the announcement “could undermine international support for the vote,” and indeed, Spain reiterated its decision not to recognize the vote under the current political conditions on Tuesday. [Posted at Laura Carlsen’s Americas Mexico Blog this morning, there is also a letter from the AFL-CIO to Sec. Hillary Clinton, asking the U.S. to oppose recognition Honduran elections under the current political conditions. Click here for the letter.]

There is also news this morning that Fr. Andres Tamayo, the naturalized Honduran priest (originally from El Salvador) who had his citizenship stripped by the coup regime for participating in protests, has left the Brazilian Embassy. Tamayo had been with Zelaya in the Brazilian mission for weeks—presiding over mass there every Sunday—but he was granted passage to his native El Salvador Tuesday. Rumors in the pro-Micheletti press also continue to write of “unconfirmed” reports that Brazil may be preparing to ask President Zelaya to leave their Embassy as well.

And finally, I highlight this disturbing report from a reader in Honduras about upcoming elections and actions being taken by the de facto regime to impede a possible boycott.

“More than 500 fiscales are being trained to prosecute anybody opposing the elections. It's an electoral crime to not vote (obviously never been enforced). However it is a “felony” to publicly urge people not to vote. Today they announced that a person would get 15-20 years in prison on the charges of ‘treason’ and ‘terrorism’ for using force to impede the election. The Tribunal Supremo Electoral has given the Attorney (Fiscal) General a formal accusation against Andres Pavon, the president of Comite de Defensa de Derechos Humanos (CODEH), for impeding the elections by predicting a police plot to massacre the left at the polls and suggesting people stay away.”

Around the region this morning:

· Transparency International released its 2009 Global Corruption Report (the full report can be linked to here) which shows Honduras to be the fourth most corrupt country in the region. Atop the list of Latin American countries was Venezuela, however, followed by Paraguay and Ecuador. Chile and Uruguay, followed by Costa Rica and Cuba, were among the region’s least corrupt countries.

· The Wall Street Journal this morning has a piece on Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela, and particularly the Venezuelan economy. The paper writes: “Venezuela's economy is suffering a deepening recession at a time when the rest of the world's economies are picking up steam, according to data released Tuesday by the country's central bank.” In the third quarter, economic output fell 4.5% compared to the same period one year prior. According to the WSJ: “The decline follows a second-quarter drop of 2.4% -- the second consecutive quarter of economic decline -- officially putting Venezuela into recession.” Inflation also remains high, at 30% over the last 12 months which could erode the purchasing power of Venezuela’s poor by some 6% this year. According to the director of Venezuelan polling firm, Datanalisis, “Chávez's popularity depends very much on consumerism. If consumption continues to drop, Venezuelan voters will punish him.”

· Also on Venezuela, the Los Angeles Times’ Chris Kraul writes on the Venezuela-Colombia conflict, arguing that any cross-border military action could potentially solidify Chavez’s base of support, particularly amid economic troubles and public security problems. Read Kraul’s full interview with Maruja Tarre, a former international relations professor with a degree from Harvard Kennedy School and now a Caracas-based consultant to multinational firms, here.

· There is also an escalating war of words between Peru and Chile where the government of Alan Garcia accused Chile of spying last week. The Miami Herald reports that the row could be attributed to an escalating arms race in the region. Meanwhile, as the New York Times writes this morning, the Peruvian government got a confession from one of its Air Force officers who allegedly admitted to have been working for the Chileans.

· Also in Chile, the AP reports on those Mapuche political activists currently being prosecuted by the government of President Michelle Bachelet with “secret evidence, protected witnesses and other tough aspects of an anti-terrorism law inherited from Gen. Augusto Pinochet.” According to the wire service, the revelations which have been creating a buzz in recent weeks have led the UN Human Rights Commission and other international organizations to express deep concern that elderly people and children, in particular, are being abused by Chilean security forces.

· Finally today, the MH notes that the U.S. government’s news service, Voice of America, plans to expand its broadcasts in Latin America, particularly in countries whose governments have been most critical of the United States. The specific countries cited include Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. “Our focus is on the Andean region because of the upheavals that are going on there,” says Spanish division director Alberto Mascaro. “Our second priority is Central America, especially Nicaragua and Honduras.”