With the so-called “Tegucigalpa/San Jose Accord” (see link for the full translated text of the accord) signed, all focus now turns toward the actual implementation of the agreement this week. As the New York Times reported over the weekend, this will mean clearing “the hurdle of being approved by the Honduran Congress” where current Congress President, José Alfredo Saavedra, has suggested that “nobody, absolutely nobody, can impose deadlines or terms on Congress.” On that point, one of the most important deal makers from last week, Ass’t Sec. of State Tom Shannon, also said over the weekend that “[implementation] is going to be the issue that is most provocative internally and probably where we in the international community are going to have to pay the closest attention.” There were initial reports last week that many congressional leaders would not move to vote on the restitution of the ousted Mel Zelaya until after receiving the judicial opinion of the Honduran Supreme Court, a body which has long opposed Zelaya’s return. More recent reports now indicate that the Congress should be prepared to take up the matter Tuesday. For his part, Mr. Zelaya has said that a unity government must be formed by Thursday.
However, in the immediate days since the accord was signed, some important progress has been made. As the AP reports, the four-member “Verification Commission” was put together Sunday, charged with “monitoring the creation of a power-sharing government” and making sure that both sides recognize November elections. Among the panel’s participants will be U.S. Labor Secretary, Hilda Solis, and former Chilean president, Ricardo Lagos. Additionally, both Mr. Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti each selected one commission member, choosing Honduran UN ambassador Jorge Arturo Reina Idiaquez and Arturo Corrales, respectively.
Also, new details are slowly emerging about how the late Thursday-night agreement was brokered. Most U.S. media outlets have reported that the presence of the Shannon-led delegation was most important for getting a deal done. The Wall Street Journal writes that “arm-twisting by Washington led to a deal” [the paper’s editorial board is less praising of the U.S. role saying, “it's more accurate to say that it extricated [Sec. Clinton] and the Obama Administration from the box canyon they entered by throwing in with Mr. Zelaya.”]. The LA Times says “In the end, it took direct, explicit U.S. pressure to force the de facto government of Honduras to reverse the position it had stubbornly clung to for nearly four months.” Zelaya’s own chief negotiator, Victor Meza, echoed this opinion this weekend. “The arrival of Mr. Shannon was key,” he told the press. “It made everyone return to the negotiating table. It reopened the dialogue.” The Inter-American Dialogue’s Peter Hakim adds that for the Obama administration “The big lesson…is that multilateralism isn't letting the other guy do it but working with them constantly and on an engaged basis.” The Washington Post, per usual, says the accord was a victory for the U.S. over Hugo Chavez since the pact was “founded on democratic process -- the very thing the Chavistas want to destroy.” The WSJ’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady differs, offering a damning critique of what she calls the U.S.’s “interventionist” actions spearheaded by another Hugo, US Amb. Hugo Llorens.
Others, like Greg Grandin at The Nation place emphasis on the role played by anti-coup resistance groups in keeping the pressure on Micheletti while RAJ at “Honduras Coup 2009” adds that an accord could never have been reached if it were not for Mel Zelaya reentering the country over one month ago. Both, however, still offer healthy skepticism that the pact will lead to Mr. Zelaya’s immediate restoration and the end of the crisis.
Behind both the arrival of the U.S. delegation and the constant pressure created by anti-coup organizing, there were also other vitally important players, most notably presidential frontrunner Porfirio Lobo. According to the BBC, a “secret pact” was made between Tom Shannon and Lobo on Thursday. Some say this unwritten agreement guarantees the return of Mel Zelaya to the presidency by November 10. Others say Mr. Lobo has only promised Tom Shannon that he will actively work to convince National Party deputies to support the restoration of Mr. Zelaya to power. But even if Lobo does not win over his party members, the BBC writes that Shannon has unofficially agreed to accept the results of November 29 elections. [For more on this, see Honduras’s El Heraldo].
Beyond Honduras, there are other major stories from around the region this weekend:
· The Miami Herald reports that Haiti is calm after PM Michele Pierre-Louis was fired last week by the Haitian Senate. “Schools opened, public transportation ran as usual and Haitians went about their daily struggle Friday as this Caribbean nation awoke to find that Prime Minister Michèle Pierre-Louis' year-old government had been toppled overnight,” Jacqueline Charles reported Saturday. The paper adds that the “international community issued statements respecting the decision of the Senate, saying it was constitutional” while also “reiterating its support of Pierre-Louis” and demanding Haiti's political class act quickly to put a new government in place. Jean-Max Bellerive, the minister of planning and external cooperation, has already been nominated by President Rene Preval to be Haiti's next premier.
· In Colombia, the U.S. and Colombia signed a pact Friday that officially gives the U.S. access to seven Colombian military bases for 10 years in order to fight left wing guerrillas and drug traffickers. According to the MH, the pact must be submitted to the U.S. congress for approval, but “the Uribe government is arguing that it does not require special approval in Bogotá because it merely extends current agreements.” For more, U.S. Amb. William Brownfield sat down with Colombia’s El Tiempo to emphasize that the US already had troops in 6 of the 7 bases outlined in the Friday agreement.
· The MH also reports this weekend on Latin America’s current weapon’s buying spree. “Brazil says it must protect its newfound oil and gas riches. Venezuela says the U.S. military might attack it. Colombia is worried by Venezuela, Ecuador is watching Colombia and Paraguay is keeping an eye on Bolivia,” writes the paper. For their part, U.S. government officials continue to say they are “monitoring the deals with a level of concern” but have avoided the term ‘arms race.’
· The AP writes that U.S. ambassador to Nicaragua was chased away from a university fair in Managua by demonstrators “hurling fireworks” late last week. Amb. Robert Callahan has come under intense criticism in the country for calling a ruling that overturned the one-term limit “improper.” Callahan said Saturday that he feels no need to apologize for his statement.
· Also, the AP reports that Mexican Public Safety Secretary Genaro Garcia Luna has proposed disbanding Mexico's 2,022 municipal police forces and combining them with state law enforcement agencies to better combat corruption and crime. “Public safety should be a state policy,” the secretary remarked Friday.
· And in Venezuela, the BBC reports that Venezuelan officials now claim that a group of men whose bodies turned up on its side of the border with Colombia were Colombian paramilitaries training in Venezuela. Vice-President Ramon Carrizalez went public Sunday to say the 11 men formed part of a “paramilitary infiltration” planning to “emerge in Caracas and other major cities” to destabilise the government of President Hugo Chavez. The BBC says the announcement is “at odds with the initial descriptions of the murdered men as simple street vendors who had been kidnapped while playing football together in early October.”
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