Thursday, November 5, 2009

Zelaya to Clinton: Why the Sudden Change?

Ousted Honduran President Mel Zelaya asked the U.S. State Dept. Wednesday why, after initially demanding his reinstatement, it now appears to be saying it will recognize November elections even if he is not returned to power prior. [Ass’t. Sec. of State Tom Shannon earlier went on CNN Espanol and said the U.S. planned to recognize elections even if the Honduran Congress voted against Mr. Zelaya’s restitution. “Both leaders took a risk and put their trust in Congress, but at the end of the day the accord requires that both leaders accept its decision,” says Shannon]. Writing to Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, the AP reports that Zelaya asked DOS to “clarify to the Honduran people if the position condemning the coup d'etat has been changed or modified.” State Dept. spokesman, Ian Kelly, largely evaded Zelaya’s concerns in his Wednesday press briefing. “We’ve made our position on President Zelaya and his restitution clear…We believe he should be restored to power. This is now a Honduran process that was started by the agreement over the weekend,” Kelly said. When pressed a second time on whether or not the U.S. would recognize elections, even without Zelaya’s restitution, Kelly told reporters the following: “’I’m sorry. I’d just like to really emphasize this is – we’ve now – I mean, we were happy that we played a role in mediating this, mediating this dialogue between the two sides. his is now a Honduran process.” [Asked a third and fourth time about elections, Kelly again dodged: “Look, we’re focused on only one thing, and that’s the implementation of the accord…We’ll cross that bridge when we get there.”]

In the Miami Herald, McClatchy’s Tyler Bridges writes that many members of Honduran Congress continue to say the body (in consultation with the Supreme Court which apparently received the accord Wednesday from the Congress) may need as long as two weeks to offer its views. “There's no timetable in the agreement for when Congress has to vote,” Congressman Antonio Rivera said by telephone from Tegucigalpa Wednesday. According to leading business mogul, Adolfo Facusse, considered by many to be one of the primary architects of the June 28 coup, “People here see dealing with Zelaya as like dealing with the devil.” Others analysts have begun to question the role being played by leading presidential candidates Pepe Lobo and Elvin Santos. “Neither candidate is showing leadership,” says Ronaldo Sierra of the National Autonomous University of Honduras. And Honduras’s Tiempo writes this morning that the Verification Commission expressed doubts about the formation of a unity government, saying there is not yet consensus about who would head such a power sharing government. Everything takes time,” the U.S. representative to the Commission, Labor Sec. Hilda Solis, remarked Wednesday. The Verification Commission was formed under the auspices of the OAS whose Sec. General, José Miguel Insulza, is now being called a “persona non grata” by some anti-Zelaya groups. Meanwhile, the AP reports that new incidents of violence, this time against anti-Zelaya media outlets, are breaking out in Tegucigalpa. Such statements and actions surely don’t hint at much positive progress. Now, with the U.S.-brokered deal apparently hanging in the balance, both the LA Times and CEPR’s Mark Weisbrot forcefully argue this morning that, “Obama…has a choice. He can force the coup regime to honour the accord or lose further credibility among governments in the hemisphere and the world.”

In other news around the region today:

· The Wall Street Journal has a feature report on how Mexican marijuana-growing drug gangs are increasingly using Indian reservations in the U.S. to cultivate the drug for sale in the States. The paper writes: “Cultivating marijuana in Indian country represents a new twist in the decades-old illicit drug trade between Mexico and the U.S., the world's largest drug-consuming market. For decades, Mexican drug gangs grew marijuana in Mexico, smuggled it across the border, and sold it in the U.S. But in the past few years, they have done what any burgeoning business would do: move closer to their customers.”

· The AP reports this morning that Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo has fired his top military chiefs, one day after rumors circulated about a possible coup against his government. In a statement Wednesday, Mr. Lugo named new commanders for the army, air force and navy without explaining his reasons. The new military commanders require the approval of the Senate which Lugo has yet to request.

· In Colombia, the BBC writes on reactions to the recently released text of the new U.S.-Colombia security agreement, signed late last week. Leading opposition senator and likely presidential candidate Gustavo Petro, of the left-wing PDA party, says the deal amounted to “a virtual US occupation of Colombia.”

· The International Crisis Group has a new report out on Venezuela under Hugo Chavez, arguing that since the February 15 referendum ending term limits in the country, “Chávez has…moved further away from the 1999 constitution, and his government has progressively abandoned core liberal democracy principles guaranteed under the Inter-American Democratic Charter and the American Convention on Human Rights.” But, regarding December 2010 legislative elections, the ICG says, “Despite the growing internal tensions, Chavez’s grip on the levers of power and his remaining popularity with certain sectors of society are likely to be sufficient to allow him and his party to preserve their control of the National Assembly.”

· And finally, in the MH, Andres Oppenheimer argues that Latin America as a region remains very low on President Barack Obama’s list of international priorities. Nevertheless, Oppenheimer does believe Obama has succeeded in improving the image of the U.S. around the region.

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