Honduras: "A Circus Elephant Balancing on a Tightrope"

“After four months of conflict, the political agreement reached in Honduras can be likened to a circus elephant balancing on a tightrope.” So writes the BBC to describe the fragile state of the Tegucigalpa/San José Accord reached late last week in Honduras. Doubts about the actual implementation of the accord grew Tuesday when the National Congress decided to defer a vote on Mel Zelaya’s reinstatement until after receiving the (nonbinding) opinion of the Supreme Court—a body which has long opposed the ousted president’s restitution. According to the BBC, “the latest move may lead to the collapse of the agreement.” Honduras’s La Tribuna adds that the Congress has not only asked the Supreme Court for an opinion but also wants the Procuraduría General de la Republica (PGR) and the Fiscalía to weigh in on the matter. Again, the paper repeats that even in the event of a congressional vote at the present moment, pro-Zelaya votes (that is, votes in favor of Zelaya’s restitution) number just 26 amongst the 128 person body.

Meanwhile, after the members of the Verification Commission arrived in Tegucigalpa Tuesday, there is also news that its work is being somewhat constrained. For example, Radio Globo reports that Zelaya’s own representative to the commission, UN Amb. Jorge Arturo Reina, has been restricted by the military from entering the Brazilian embassy to confer with Zelaya himself. The OAS has tried to remain positive, as always, saying it plans to hold a special meeting on November 16 to lift sanctions currently imposed on the Honduran government. However, Sec. General José Miguel Insulza conditioned his statement on Chilean radio, saying “if it’s possible,” (meaning if the Congress decides on the restitution of Mr. Zelaya and a unity government is formed by that time). Interestingly, while Insulza continued to say the only exit from the crisis would be reinstating Zelaya, it seems his position for restoring Honduras to the OAS now only requires the Congress to vote on the matter and form a unity government. For its part, the European Union said Tuesday it would wait until a unity government was actually formed to decide whether or not relations should be normalized.

Finally, the Miami Herald this morning writes of the agreement struck last week between Zelaya and Micheletti. Four months after the coup, the paper continues to emphasize the need to “keep Zelaya on a tight leash.” “Keeping Mr. Zelaya on a tight leash makes sense. If he had not tried to hold a referendum that was widely interpreted as an attempt to get around the constitutional ban on running for a second term, none of this would have been necessary,” the paper says. Looking toward unrest in Nicaragua, the MH adds: “If abiding by the constitution is good enough for Honduras -- as Mr. Ortega maintained when he demanded the restoration of Mr. Zelaya -- it is good enough for Nicaragua, and that means that Daniel Ortega has no legitimate claim to stand for reelection.” And in Foreign Policy, Christopher Sabatini and Daniel Altschuler also find themselves—again four months and numerous international condemnations after the fact--having to argue against some conservative commentators who continue to maintain that the June 28 ouster of Zelaya was not really a coup.

Around the region this morning:

· El Salvador’s El Faro reports that President Mauricio Funes announced Tuesday that the Salvadoran military will be given new responsibilities in maintaining internal security, beginning this Friday (and lasting for 180 days). Some 1300 soldiers already aid the National Police in public security efforts.

· El Tiempo has published the full text of the recently signed U.S.-Colombia security agreement. Click here to read.

· The AP writes that a new report written by a number of former Latin American heads of state, entitled “The Social Agenda for Democracy in Latin America” says economic growth, education, access to health services, and microfinance are critical for strengthening governability in the region. One of the report’s authors, former Peruvian president Alejandro Toledo, emphasized the report’s focus on “social exclusion and poverty.” However, Toledo said the focus should be on “economic growth” as a means of solving these problems rather than “redistributing poverty.” The latter is what “provokes the rise of authoritarian populism in Latin America,” argues Toledo. Other leaders who took part in the report include Carlos Mesa of Bolivia, Vinicio Cerezo of Guatemala, Ricardo Maduro of Honduras, Vicente Fox of Mexico, and Vicente Fox Panamá’s Nicolás Ardito Barletta.

· The AP also writes that Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo denied Tuesday that there was a growing threat of a coup d’etat in Paraguay. Some opposition lawmakers recently called for the president’s impeachment as he attempts to push social reforms through the opposition controlled congress.

· Spain’s El País interviews Brazilian Marco Aurelio García, a man the paper calls the “most influential” among President Lula da Silva’s inner circle and “an architect of Brazil’s international take over.” In the interview, Aurelio García particularly highlighted the current Colombia-Venezuela border crisis, saying Brazil would be willing to monitor the area if the two countries could come to a peaceful resolution on the matter.

· Finally, looking for a new job in a tough economy? As Phil Peters highlights at his “Cuba Triangle” blog, if you’re willing to relocate, have management experience, and a valid U.S. passport, the McDonalds at Guantanamo Bay is in search of a new Ass’t Manager.