Brazil is increasingly “frustrated and disappointed” with the United States, Lula’s foreign policy adviser, Marco Aurelio Garcia, tells Bloomberg News. Among its biggest gripes, the decision of the United States to recognize Sunday’s elections in Honduras. “All that positive feeling created after Obama’s election, and which strengthened at the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago, is starting to disintegrate a bit, because the U.S. is condoning a coup d’etat, recognizing a government that has used extremely illegal and violent tools,” Garcia told reporters in Brasilia this week. The Brazilian went on to call the U.S. decision an attempt to “clean up a coup” in a country that has lived under a state of siege for months. The words of Mr. Garcia come as the U.S. rejected a plea from Brazil to support a delay of Sunday’s elections. In a letter dated Nov. 17, the Brazilian foreign ministry sent William Burns, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, a message asking that the U.S. rethink its position about the Honduran vote. But the U.S. has said it has no plans of going back on its change. Meanwhile, Obama’s frequent Senate ally, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Richard Lugar (R-IN), also asked last week that the Brazilians themselves recognize Sunday’s poll.
On Tuesday, numerous regional leaders expressed their opinions on the Honduran election. El Salvador’s, Mauricio Funes, said it would be “difficult” for the international community to recognize Sunday elections without Mel Zelaya restored to power, but added he was still watching how things develop ahead of Sunday voting and thus was not yet ready to give his country’s position on whether or not results would be recognized. Mexico also said it would not yet decide whether or not to recognize, saying it believes there is still time for the implementation of the San José Accord. Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo, meanwhile, said his country would not recognize results. And Peru’s Alan Garcia broke with other regional leaders saying his country plans to recognize Sunday’s vote. He joins the U.S. and Panama as the only countries in the hemisphere to explicitly support this weekend’s electoral process. Amongst human rights groups working in Honduras, CEJIL called the current climate in Honduras one of “intimidation” that “impedes the free expression of the citizenry.” CEJIL goes on: “November 29 will not strengthen Honduran democracy. To the contrary, it will weaken it because it will consolidate a new version of coup d’etats.”
On the ground in Honduras, the AP writes that Honduran police detained two Nicaraguans and two Hondurans possessing “several rifles” as disarmament of registered gun owners continued around the country. Roberto Micheletti (who apparently could not handle a week of solitary “reflection”) commented on the arrests, saying the men had plans to assassinate him as he went to vote on election day. Additionally, La Tribuna reports the arrival of some 350 international election observers. The Honduran TSE says they also believe as many as 6000 Hondurans will participate in monitoring Sunday’s vote but some officials did note that certain more, well-known international observing missions have not/will not participate in election monitoring. Regarding turnout, there are various numbers being thrown around by the TSE, most ranging from 50 to 60% of eligible voters showing up Sunday. One source in Honduras reports that some TSE officials expect abstention to be just above 50%. In 2005, the abstention rate was 46%. And finally, on the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord, El Heraldo reports that amidst election hoopla, the Supreme Court has decided to finally come together today to offer its non-binding opinion on the restitution of Mel Zelaya. The court has time and again been a bastion anti-Zelaya opinion so it seems somewhat unlikely anything new will come out of today’s meeting.
Around the region this morning:
· The New York Times reports that President Obama wrote to Brazil’s Lula da Silva on Sunday, one day before the arrival of Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The U.S. President reiterated the his position on Iran’s nuclear program, although he stopped short of explicitly criticizing the Brazilian leader for receiving the Iranian president. The letter, 3 pages total, also discussed Honduras, says the Times. On the crisis there, Obama “justified American support for a presidential election” and said “the situation would ‘start from zero’ after the election.” Lula said he may respond to the President via telephone.
· Following the polemical Iranian president beyond Brazil, the AP writes this morning that Ahmadinejad’s three-country “goodwill tour” in Latin America has expanded Iran’s reach in the region. In Bolivia on Tuesday, Ahmadinejad signed an agreement with President Evo Morales committing Iran to help his country do research on exploiting lithium. In Venezuela, where the Iranian leader arrived last night, Iran has “already helped set up factories that assemble cars, tractors and bicycles, and Iranian businesses have sent crews to build public housing under contracts with Hugo Chavez's government.” Spain’s El País has more on the Venezuela leg of Ahmadinejad’s tour, reporting that the visit seeks to strengthen their joint vision of a multipolar world that both country’s have.
· The LA Times reports on new efforts on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border to tighten security. The paper writes: “The Mexican government is modernizing its ports of entry along the border, including its biggest crossing in Tijuana. The new infrastructure -- which includes gates, cameras and vehicle scales -- is meant to help curtail the flow of drug money and weapons to Mexican organized crime groups.” However, some worry that higher security will mean much longer waits for U.S. entry and thus a decline in U.S. tourism revenue in an already struggling economy.
· Finally, in two other stories/opinions this morning, Germany’s Der Spiegel and the Financial Times have two pieces on the rise of Brazil and the fall of Mexico on the world economic stage. The Der Spiegel piece focuses on Lula himself, leading: “Brazil is seen as an economic success story and its people revere President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva like a star. He is on a mission to turn the country into one of the world's five biggest economies through reforms, giant infrastructure projects and by tapping vast oil reserves. But he faces hurdles.” In the FT, Moises Naím leads: “Not long ago Mexico was the superstar among emerging markets, while Brazil remained the butt of jokes dating back the best part of a century. ‘Brazil is the country of the future and always will be’ became a cliché. No longer.” And in the LAT, Marjorie Miller praises Mauricio Funes’s recent decision to honor 6 Jesuit priests, killed 20 years ago. “This, like the democratic election of Funes, was an example that peaceful change is possible, if slow to come,” she writes.
Note: I’ll be traveling a bit over the Thanksgiving weekend but still plan to get out a daily news brief on both Thursday and Friday. The release time, however, may be later than usual. -jfs
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