Brazil's Rise and the Risk of "Hubris"

The infrastructure problems that led to a massive power outage this week and recent reports of bloody gang violence and insecurity in the country’s favelas make commentators frequently question whether or not Brazil’s rise to the world stage will be a smooth and easy one. This issue is the subject of a number of articles this week, including a set of features in the Economist. The British magazine writes that the biggest risk to “Latin America’s big success” is now hubris. “China may be leading the world economy out of recession but Brazil is also on a roll. It did not avoid the downturn, but was among the last in and the first out. Its economy is growing again at an annualised rate of 5%,” says the magazine. Further, unlike China, Brazil is a democracy. Unlike India, Brazil has no domestic insurgency or deep-seated ethnic conflict. And unlike Russia, the Economist writes, Brazil exports “more than oil and arms and treats foreign investors with respect.” Yet, it’s overconfidence, argues the Economist, that could cause some setbacks along Brazil’s rise. For more in Economist, also check out features on business and finance and a profile of Lula’s self-appointed successor, Dilma Rouseff.

There’s more on Brazil in the Wall Street Journal where Matt Moffett contrasts the Brazilian rise to Argentina’s “faltering.” He writes: “In op-ed articles, blogs and research papers, Argentines are grudgingly coming to grips with the idea that their longtime rival is passing them by, as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's pragmatic centrism trumps Argentine President Cristina Kirchner's nationalistic populism.” But, the paper goes on, not all Argentines are convinced and the recent electrical outage illustrated that Brazil still has many internal kinks to work out. As one Argentine economics writer, Lucas Llach, recently wrote, "We Aren't Brazil – Luckily,” noting that “Argentina in fact has a lower fiscal deficit and more vigorous recent growth in GDP per capita than Brazil, not to mention a homicide rate that's one-fifth of its larger neighbor's.”

Around the region this morning:

· In Spain’s El País, an interview with former President Ricardo Lagos is drawing some attention ahead of December presidential elections. The widely respected ex-president tells the paper that while conservative candidate Sebastian Pinera did vote against General Augusto Pinochet in the 1988 plebiscite, the business mogul remains “surrounded by heirs” the former dictator. Lagos also addresses the widely debated regional issue of re-election, arguing that even with Michelle Bachelet’s impressive approval ratings, there should be no move toward removing term limits in Chile.

· The Washington Post reports that a binational task force formed to address issues related to the U.S.-Mexico border will ask the Obama administration and Congress to reinstate an expired ban on assault weapons. The group also recommends that Mexico overhaul its border security to mirror that of the U.S. The private task force was headed by Robert C. Bonner and included several former senior government officials from both countries. Speaking in Mexico City in April, President Obama pledged to push the Senate to ratify an inter-American arms-trafficking treaty. However, he has distanced himself from a campaign promise to reinstate a ban on assault weapons.

· On the feud between Venezuela and Colombia, the Washington Post, the Miami Herald’s Andres Oppenheimer, and Newsweek all offer commentary. The Post compares Chavez to the military junta that ruled Argentina from 1976 to 1983 and launched an attack on the British-controlled Falklands/Malvinas Islands. Oppenheimer compares Chavez to the deceased crocodile hunter, Steve Irwin, arguing the Venezuelan may become a “victim of his own addiction to headlines.” “Like the Crocodile Hunter, Chávez owes much of his staying power to his audacious moves to grab headlines.” And Newsweek’s Mac Margolis argues that “Chávez is simply wagging the dog: his popularity is plummeting precipitously, and this is little more than an act of political desperation.”

· The BBC examines Haiti after last year’s intense storm season and its new efforts to rebuild.

· And on Cuba, Ann Louise Bardach, author of the newly released book Without Fidel, writes in the LA Times on Fidel Castro in retirement. While New America’s Steve Clemons, recently in Cuba with a science delegation of the AAAS, writes about the success of Cuba’s soft power diplomacy through the exporting of medical doctors. “There are more than 51,000 Cuban doctors and health care professionals working around the world today, primarily in developing nations. Many of these are working collaboratively with US and European NGOs actually in third countries -- particularly in Africa in dealing with AIDS/HIV, river blindness, malaria, and a number of health maladies.” The U.S. would be wise to learn from Cuba on these successes, argues Clemons.