Before getting to new details on events in Honduras, I lead this morning with news and analysis from neighboring Nicaragua, where tensions continue to rise after the Supreme Court rejected a term limit law that now opens the door for a re-election bid by current President Daniel Ortega. As reported over the last few days, the ruling was called “improper” by U.S. Amb. to Nicaragua, Robert Callahan, who was subsequently run out of a university cultural fair in Managua and had his office at the U.S. embassy stoned and egged last week. As the Miami Herald reports this morning, pro-Sandinista forces went so far as to “declare Callahan persona non grata in a theatrical ‘popular assembly’ held in front of the embassy Thursday evening.” For his part, current President Ortega last week referred to those who have opposed the Supreme Court’s decision as “residual garbage,” adding that the move is “not something that the oligarchs, the traitors and the imperialists like.” Some analysts (see Javier Corrales at the Huffington Post today or an AP report this morning on the same matter) see Ortega’s very controversial attempt to stay in power as a repeat of events that precipitated the ouster of Mel Zelaya in Honduras—part of a growing trend of Latin American leaders who are establishing what some have called “low level dictatorships” by extending their terms in office. Corrales writes “in both cases (Honduras and Nicaragua), the root cause of the crisis was the same: elected presidents seeking to prolong their stay in office in violation of constitutional procedures.”
SFRC chairman, Sen. John Kerry, however, disagrees, arguing that comparing Ortega’s move to Zelaya’s is simply not accurate. To the contrary, the Senator remarked earlier this week that Mr. Ortega’s move more closely resembles that of Roberto Micheletti and the coup plotters in Tegucigalpa. According to frequent Latin American commentator Boz, “Comparing the situation to Honduras, Senator John Kerry got it right when he said Ortega's recent actions resembled Micheletti's coup government tactics more than Zelaya’s [or those of Hugo Chavez, Alvaro Uribe, and others for that matter]. Ortega's move was an unconstitutional power grab over the institutions and citizens of Nicaragua.” This is certainly an interesting point of difference to think about as responses to an increasingly volatile situation in Managua are considered.
Now, on to Honduras. Both U.S. Amb. Hugo Llorens and presidential frontrunner, Porfirio Lobo, totally rejected El País reporting Monday which inferred that some sort of secret pact had been made between Asst. Sec. of State Tom Shannon and Mr. Lobo which would allow for Mel Zelaya’s restitution [Llorens also rejected a La Vanguardia report saying that Mr. Shannon had threatened Mr. Zelaya’s son with prosecution for drug trafficking if he did not submit to the accord]. “I consider these malicious fabrications that do not have anything to do with the truth. Mr. Shannon did not have any sort of meeting with Mr. Pepe Lobo and the subject was never at all talked about,” says Amb. Llorens. “[Mr. Shannon] only asked us [the six presidential candidates] that we help implement the accord,” added Lobo in an interview with El País.
Meanwhile, Hondurans wait for the National Congress to return to work on Tuesday. According to deputy Lara Watson, a small group of legislative leaders will decide when to submit the measure on Mr. Zelaya’s restitution to the full Congress for debate. But Honduran Congress President, José Alfredo Saavedra again reiterated Monday that the Congress will take its time. “Once congressional leaders understand the reach of the pact, once they understand its dynamics, then we'll decide what path to follow,” Saavedra told HRN radio. According to La Tribuna, the breakdown of the Congress by parties is as follows: 55 from the Partido Nacional, 62 from the Partido Liberal, 5 from the Unificación Democrática, 4 Christian Democrats y 2 from the PINU. Of these, it is expected that just 26 are sure to vote in favor Manuel Zelaya’s restitution. The rest remain undecided or opposed.
And finally, the Verification Commission is expected to begin its work today in Tegucigalpa as well, with Ricardo Lagos and Hilda Solis arriving this morning in the Honduran capital to join their two Honduran counterparts. This news comes as the U.S. embassy in Honduras decided yesterday to restart the issuance of non-immigrant visas to Hondurans and as the OAS prepares next week to decide on whether or not Honduras should be allowed back into the inter-American community. The Inter-American Development Bank hinted that it too could reestablish cooperation with the Honduran government, as long as the Tegucigalpa/San José Accord continues to be implemented.
In other news around the region this morning:
· The Washington Post reports on the drug war in Mexico with a story about violence and youth, who are increasingly being recruited into life in the country’s drug cartels. “The number of minors swept up in Mexico's drug wars -- as killers and victims -- is soaring, with U.S. and Mexican officials warning that a toxic culture of fast money, drug abuse and murder is creating a “‘lost generation,’” writes the paper’s William Booth. The report goes on: “the [current] crackdown has led the cartels to diversify their operations, moving from the transshipment of narcotics to extortion, immigrant smuggling and kidnapping. It also has sparked intense rivalries, with youngsters serving as expendable foot soldiers in battles over trafficking routes to the United States and local markets that serve a growing number of Mexican drug users.” In Ciudad Juarez alone, 134 minors have been killed this year in drug-related killings.
· In Venezuela, more reports of violence on the Colombia-Venezuela border where this time two Venezuelan National Guardsmen were the victims. “State television says unidentified assailants gunned down the soldiers at a roadside checkpoint in the western state of Tachira,” writes the AP. In addition, an opponent of President Hugo Chavez—Copei party member, Gustavo Gonzalez—was killed Monday while dining at a restaurant in the city of Los Teques, in Miranda state. The government says it will investigate the murder. Copei spokesman Alejandro Vivas said in a statement that the slaying “appeared to be a hired killing.”
· In Buenos Aires, a conference this week brought together military leaders from around the region to discuss the role of Latin American militaries in a time of peace. Those who participated said Latin American soldiers can and should play in important role in humanitarian missions around the region, reports the BBC.
· Also in Argentina the trial of Reynaldo Bignone, 81, a former general who ruled Argentina in 1982-1983, began this week. Bignon will be tried with seven other former military and police officers in front of a three-judge panel on charges that they ordered beatings, waterboardings and electrocutions at the Campo de Mayo army base during the country’s Dirty War of the 1970s and early 1980s. And in Chile, hundreds of former drafted soldiers say they now want to talk about human rights abuses they committed during the Pinochet years—so long as their safety is guaranteed. “We were executors and witnesses of many brutalities and now we're willing to talk about them for our own personal redemption,” says former soldier Fernando Mellado, who is organizing a Sunday gathering of draftees outside Chile's presidential palace.
· And lastly this morning, on a different note, El Salvador has surprised many, appearing on Lonely Planet’s 2010 annual “10 best places to visit” list. The new “Best In Travel” guide recommends El Salvador for its “beautiful scenery and vibrant culture,” showing just how far the country has come since the end of a violent civil war in 1992.
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